DODGERS/NATIONALS

Scherzer named game 1 starter, Baker ‘unsettled’ for game 2
by Matthew Moreno | Dodger Blue — 4 hours ago

Two days after the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched the National League West, manager Dave Roberts formally announced his rotation for the National League Division Series matchup against the Washington Nationals.

Roberts had previously hinted at sending out Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill in Games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, followed by Kenta Maeda in Game 3. While some managers may prefer to split left-handers in a short series, Roberts thought it best to keep his top pitchers starting back of one another.

Beyond Game 1, selecting which starters will take the mound during the NLDS isn’t quite as easy for Nationals manager Dusty Baker.

On Tuesday, Baker confirmed the obvious choice — Max Scherzer in Game 1 — but beyond that doesn’t so much as have a Game 2 starter in place, per Mark Zuckerman of masnsports.com:

Mark Zuckerman ✔ @MarkZuckerman
No shock here, but Dusty Baker officially named Max Scherzer
as Game 1 starter. Said Game 2 starter is "unsettled."
11:43 AM - 4 Oct 2016​

Scherzer last pitched Sunday, which puts him on regular rest for Friday’s start. He went 20-7 with a 2.96 ERA and 0.97 WHIP this season. Scherzer led all NL pitchers in strikeouts (284), innings pitched (228.1), WHIP, wins, and was eighth in ERA.

The 32-year-old right-hander is considered one of the favorites to win the 2016 NL Cy Young Award. Baker’s primary options to start Game 2 presumably are Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark.

Gonzalez finished 11-11 with a 4.57 ERA, 3.76 FIP and 1.34 WHIP over 32 starts. He allowed six earned runs in two of his final six starts this season, and closed the year by allowing three runs in back-to-back outings.

The veteran left-hander was just about even whether pitching at home or on the road. He went 7-5 with a 4.45 ERA at Nationals Park, and 4-6 with a 4.69 ERA on the road. Gonzalez held the Dodgers to one run on three hits over six innings at home on July 20.

Overall in 2016, Roark went 16-10 with a 2.83 ERA. He too faced the Dodgers at home, though suffered a loss despite only allowing three runs in 7.1 innings pitched.

Roark went 9-6 with a 2.72 ERA at Nationals Park this season, and 7-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 16 road games (15 starts).

 

Why the Dodgers will survive without home-field advantage
by Nate Edelman | Dodgers Nation — 4 hours ago

When Brandon McCarthy gave up six runs Friday, Sept. 30 against the San Francisco Giants, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ fate was set. All hopes were dashed on catching the Washington Nationals for home-field advantage in the NLDS. Now the Dodgers have to travel across the country to play game one and two in Nationals.

Losing home-field advantage is such a big deal right? Because the Dodgers lost home-field, they have a significant disadvantage against the Nats, right? Wrong. Here’s why.

In the NBA, the team who has home court has a significant advantage. All-time, in more than 3,500 NBA playoff games, the home team has won 66 percent of the time in the playoffs. So out of every three games, the home team wins two of them. The Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers both had home court throughout the playoffs and both made the Finals. In fact, since 2013, at least one No. 1 seed in either the Western or Eastern Conference made the NBA Finals. In the NFL, teams that have home field advantage win more than 60 percent of the time.

On the other hand, home field in baseball doesn’t mean nearly as much. Fox Sports’ Rob Neyer estimates that home teams in baseball win just 55% of the time in the playoffs. If this statistic was drawn out for an entire season, this means that home field affects roughly one out of eight postseason games. There is an advantage of being the top seed however, because the Wild Card team’s rotation is jumbled because they have to use their best pitcher in the Wild Card’s single-elimination game. Home teams also have serious advantage in the World Series, but that is because of MLB’s decision to make the All-Star Game matter.

Having an advantage in one out of every eight postseason games isn’t daunting by any stretch. These statistics prove true to recent history as well. Last year, the Kansas City Royals were the best team in the American League and won it all. That same year, the Mets represented the NL and were the third ranked team in its bracket. The Cardinals won 100 games last year, finished as the one seed, but lost in the NLDS.

In 2014, both the Royals and San Francisco Giants were Wild Card teams. 2013 gives way to the Red Sox and Cardinals, who were the best in their respective leagues. In 2012, the Detroit Tigers and the Giants were both the No. 3 seeds. In the 2011 playoffs, the Cardinals were the Wild Card team and the Texas Rangers were the two seed. In 2010, the Giants were the two seed and the Rangers were the three seed. I’ll stop there.

The Dodgers also had some trouble starting off at home in recent years. 2015 and 2014 consisted of the Dodgers playing catch up after blowing game one and not making it. The Dodgers only playoff series win was when they didn’t have home field advantage (against the Atlanta Braves in 2013). It may be kind of refreshing to root for the Dodgers to steal game one or two and fly back to Dodger Stadium with some momentum. I like the idea of veterans Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill grind on the road and have rookies Kenta Maeda and Julio Urias (if necessary) feed off the Dodger Stadium crowd and rally towels.

I am not advocating that home-field advantage is worthless. It definitely has its advantages, especially in a winner-take-all scenario. But history shows that obtaining home field in baseball doesn’t suggest success like home field/court does in the NBA and NFL. It feels like more of a mixed bag. Maybe the Dodgers not gaining home field adds a chip on their shoulder that wasn’t there last year or the year before. The Dodgers can be one of the many teams that do not have home field but make the World Series anyway. Anything is possible.

 

Wonder if ticket purchases will spike when game times are announced? Sounds like a petty excuse though for lack of demand

 

same
one of my favorites back then
cracks me up that he still wears wristbands

 

and there's clocks everywhere
like right on the scoreboard
dusty must hit the casinos afterward

 

seems like that whole team of guys got old(er) all at once
was sad to see lopes, cey, garv, reggie, mo, yeager, dusty move on...

 

Dodgers vs. Nationals: Key Match-Ups
by Brian Robitaille | Dodgers Nation — 12 hours ago

For the fourth straight year, the Dodgers enter the post season as the N.L West division champs. On Friday, they will get set to square off with the Washington Nationals, who claimed the N.L East crown this year. We take a look here at some key matchups that could determine the outcome of the series.

Kershaw vs. Scherzer:
Ace vs. ace here. Two of the best in baseball will be going up against one another in game 1 when Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer take the mound. Both players are All-Stars, who have Cy Young awards and no-hitters under their belt. Kershaw is considered by many to be the best pitcher in the game, and the case could be made that Scherzer is right behind him. Safe to say that runs may be hard to come by in Game 1.

Starting pitchers don’t actually square off with each other, but rather the opposing team’s offense. Still, we seem to always envision it as the two pitchers going head-to-head. And some guys will tell you that the opposing pitcher does influence how they pitch. Going up against another ace may put added pressure on you to be that much better, and make each pitch that much more perfect. Knowing they don’t have much room for error could affect each pitcher’s performance, either for good or for bad.

Kershaw faced the Nationals once this year, back in June. He went 7 innings, giving up 1 ER, while striking out 8 in the win. Last year, in two starts, he had even more success against them, going 2-0 while pitching 16 scoreless innings and striking out 22 batters. Scherzer didn’t make a start against the Dodgers this year, but had one start against them last season where he pitched 6 innings, giving up 1 ER and K’d 8.

Which guy will blink first? Who will give up that first run of the game? Both Kershaw and Scherzer may make a mistake or two over the course of their start, but they probably won’t make many. So, the question is, which offense will capitalize? It may just be that one pitch over the plate, that hanging curveball or poorly located fastball that hitters need to take advantage of. If they don’t, they might not get another opportunity.

Taking Game 1 is always key, but even more so to do it by beating your opponent’s #1 pitcher. Kershaw and Scherzer is a battle that could set the tone for the series.

Gio Gonzalez vs. Dodgers Offense:
We all know about this year’s struggles for the Dodgers against left-handed pitching, and I’m pretty sure the word has got out to the Nationals as well. Unfortunately for Washington, they only have one starting lefty to turn to in the division series, and that guy is Gio Gonzalez, who will likely be their Game 3 starter.

Gonzalez hasn’t had a great season this year, posting a 4.57 ERA over the course of 32 starts. But he does pitch left-handed. And therein lies the problem for the Dodgers.

There’s no need to beat a dead horse here, and we’ve covered this many times. But the Dodgers are the WORST hitting team in baseball against LHP. They are dead last in BA (.213), OPB, (.290), Slg % (.332), OPS (.622.) Those aren’t good numbers.

One big question is how Dave Roberts will construct the starting lineup against Gonzalez. More times than not in the regular season, he’s gone with a righty-heavy lineup, sitting guys like Joc Pederson, Chase Utley, Josh Reddick, and Andrew Toles. That approach hasn’t helped much and it will be interesting to see if he continues to employ that strategy in the post season. However, this past weekend in San Francisco, Roberts started Pederson a couple of times against lefties, which may have been Joc’s audition for the playoffs. And being how Kike Hernandez is not of the NLDS roster, it seems likely that Pederson could get the start in CF against Gonzalez in Game 3.

Gonzalez isn’t a dominate lefty, but neither is Jeff Locke, Matt Moore, Tyler Anderson, Brandon Finnegan, or Ty Blach, who are just some of the lefties that have stymied the Dodgers this year. In his lone start against the Dodgers this year, Gonzalez got the win, pitching 6 innings and giving up one run.

The Dodgers need to be better against lefties, and at least give themselves a chance. There’s really no simpler way to say it. As bad as they’ve been against LHP in the regular season, they still have a chance for redemption if they can turn it around in the playoffs.

Dave Roberts vs. Dusty Baker:
Both Roberts and Baker are in their first year with their team, although there’s a huge difference in overall experience. Roberts is a rookie manger, whereas Baker has been around over 20 years, managing four different MLB teams. Both guys have fared well this season, and are expected to be in the running for N.L Manger of the Year.

As far as managers are concerned, success is vastly measured off of how their team fares overall (i.e wins & loses.) And that makes sense. Not too many are going to judge a manager’s specific decisions over the course of a 162 game season as much as they’ll judge the overall outcome of the team.

But the playoffs are a different animal.

Every decision will be scrutinized. Each move questioned. All of a sudden, “X’s and O’s” become a lot more important. When should you pinch hit or double switch for your starter if they’re cruising? How should you manage your bullpen? What’s a good sample size to base matchups on? Both managers will face big questions throughout the course of the series, and whether or not they make the right move, could have huge implications on the outcome.

During some instances in the past three years, many Dodgers fans thought Don Mattingly may have been out-managed in the playoffs. Hopefully, that won’t happen this year, and Roberts will be able to push the right buttons when the time comes.