DODGERS 2020 MINOR LEAGUE/PROSPECTS THREAD

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by ColoradoKidWitGame, Dec 18, 2019.

  1. No Name

    No Name Well-Known Member

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    I only want to see May pitch every 5 days. I'm not sure I can handle seeing that orange afro every other day. It really does creep me out.
     
  2. fsudog21

    fsudog21 DSP Legend

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    Got something against clowns?

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Gebbeth

    Gebbeth DSP Legend

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    [​IMG]
     
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  4. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    His stuff has always been good, it was just settling down once he got to the bigs. You could tell that he was far too amped in his early starts and could not spot his pitches with the precision he was used to in MiLB. The team never really let him settle down either since he only got 4 starts and he was pretty excellent in them for a rookie 3, 1, 1 and 2 ER in his 4 starts all 5+ is not bad. The location issues are what cost him in the end as the 3rd time through, teams started to tag him. He added the cutter sometime in 2018, I believe and it has come along nicely. The curve and change are coming along, but though they have shown improvement they are still average or below. I feel people that think he will make a good closer are just banking on what they saw down the stretch, cause that shit was lethal. Still, keeping him in the rotation is the better play to see if his secondaries continue to take a step forward, cause if they do he will be one of the better starters in the game.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
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  5. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    I'd much rather see Gonsolin in the role as closer in the near term. His stuff is more pedestrian and he has shown in the past that in a relief role, his FB can get bumped into triple digits. That paired with his ++ split could make for a dynamite closer. My issue with him has been that the FB is too flat and his command is pretty bad, so moving him to the pen where at least he gets a couple more ticks on it would be the better play. The opposite side of that argument is that Gonsolin has only been a full time pitcher for a couple of years and every year he had shown improvement until the injury bug crept up and bit him in 2019. He probably needed some more seasoning in AAA, but the big club needed him. I'd like to see him get an extended start in 2020 at AAA to try to fix some of his command issues, his secondary pitches as well and to see if the oblique injury had sapped some of his power as his velo was lower once he was up compared to anything I had heard prior. Neither guy is ready for a pen role yet, May has the much higher upside to succeed at each, but they both should be kept as starters.

    Also, just for reference. One of the top rated pitching prospects in the game was rated #1 future closer.
     
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  6. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    First Top 10 by position from MLB Pipeline just dropped and it is for RHP.
    May is now #6 in baseball according to their chart. He was listed amongst the top of the class with 60 grade control. The highest ceiling was given to Forrest Whitley and the highest floor was Casey Mize, this what they had to say about May when they named the Dodgers prospect the most likely to win ROY "May can rival Whitley's ceiling and Mize's floor, as he has a pair of well above-average pitches in his fastball and cutter (not to mention flashes of a plus curveball) and has pounded the strike zone throughout his pro career. He continued to show the same after reaching the Majors last August and pitched well in the National League Division Series." That is a very awesome thing to hear.

    The list breakdown is
    1. Casey Mize, Tigers
    2. Nate Pearson, Blue Jays
    3. Forrest Whitley, Asterisks
    4. Michael Kopech, White Sox
    5. Sixto Sanchez, Marlins
    6. May
    7. Matt Manning, Tigers
    8. Luis Patino, Padres
    9. Spencer Howard, Phillies
    10. Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles

    Only Patino and Rodriguez are not expected to impact their clubs in 2020, while Kopech and Whitley still have a lot to prove. The Phillies have a desperate need for pitching and Howard should help, but man it could look bad if they are not able to get an extension done for Realmuto and he walks at the end of the season. They could have had Sanchez and Howard, and then done a smart thing like sign Yasmani Grandal last offseason.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
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  7. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    So we are officially less than a month away from Pitchers and Catchers reporting. Unless something crazy and unexpected happens at the last minute, the Dodgers roster is going to be pretty much the same thing we saw last season.... yay. I thought it would be fun to look at some of the prospects to watch in the year ahead that are not some of the more well talked about guys in the system, but have massive upside. I am going to have their rankings next to their name for the different publications. Baseball America (BA) and Baseball Prospectus (BP) are are on 2020, MLB Pipeline (MLB) will be the end of the 2019 farm ranking. These are just some guys to watch and I am not calling for a breakout season by any means and usually the ones with the highest ceilings have the steepest falls.

    3B Miguel Vargas (MLB #16, BA #NA, BP #4)- He is not someone regularly talked about, but within the inner Dodgers prospect hugging community, Vargas is a growing favorite. He is incredibly advanced for his age at the plate and he has shown some signs of the power coming on. If the power comes, he will fly up prospect charts, especially if he can maintain his impressive 15% K rate. Defense is also a part of his game that needs to show improvement for him to be able to stay at 3rd. That makes to big if's in his game for him to be a valuable player, but some scouts think it could happen. If the power does come, then there is less of a requirement for the defense as the bat would play across the diamond, and if both come he is a star hitting 3B.

    C Diego Cartaya (MLB #11, BA #7, BP #7)- I think this will be the most talked about player that will make the list as I am going to skip recent 1st round picks and trade centerpieces. The reason I am including Cartaya is the Int'l guys always have a smaller following than the stateside prospects. While most on this board know him, it is probably not understood of just how good Cartaya is projected to be. He has the upside of a star catcher and like recent C prospect Keibert Ruiz, Cartaya is said to be incredibly advanced for his age at the position. Unlike Ruiz at the same age, Cartaya has at least shown signs that as he fills out, he should be able to hit the ball out of the park more consistently. He is also well ahead of Ruiz in the defense category as he boasts a stronger arm. A best case scenario for the Dodgers is for Cartaya to take off at Great Lakes and Ruiz regains some of his trade value so the club can move him for an impact piece. Most publications feel that of the MANY MLB caliber catchers within the system and on the big league roster, Cartaya will be the best and a solid showing this year should land him high on some top prospect lists.

    RHP Jimmy Lewis (MLB #19, BA #UR, BP #UR)- Not a lot being talked about with this kid, but I am excited to see him. The org shut him down after signing him out of HS as their Comp B pick after the 2nd round of the draft last year. Why am I so excited about him? Well he has a lot in common with another recent Dodgers pitching prospect that has flown up the charts. Standing at 6'6" and now up over 215 lbs, Lewis has the size of a potential workhorse. There are usually growing pains for pitchers at this height as their mechanics tend to be wonky, but Lewis is pretty simple to the plate so any fixes should be easy. While the other tall lanky Dodgers prospect(May) was topping out at 90 when drafted, Lewis was already hitting 95. They found a small labrum tear after drafting him, but they think it is correctable without surgery and if he adds some muscle, he should be in good shape. As of the end of the year, he had already put on 15 lbs and said that the org had really pushed strength training into his daily routine which he has done. Lewis was one of the most projectable HS pitchers in the draft last year and if there is one thing this FO has done a great job of, it is targeting good arms in the draft. Of all the pitchers in the system, he has the highest upside and could be another fast riser with a solid first year in the org.

    OF Luis Rodriguez (MLB #24, BA #10, BP #UR)- If the way the Dodgers handled Cartaya is any indication, we may not get much of a look at Rodriguez this year outside of complex ball. Still, the potential in Rodriguez is immense as he is showing early signs of a potential 5 tool CF'er. At only just 17, Rodriguez has shown an above average all fields approach with the bat, emerging power that he is showing to all fields and a defensive IQ beyond his years in CF. If he can maintain his speed while he gains size as he ages, he should be able to continue to man CF. The Dodgers are one of the more aggressive developmental teams in the game, so there is some potential for him to be brought stateside and challenged immediately. If he remains in the DSL for the season or at least most of the year, expect to see him remain in that 10-25 ranking in the system.

    OF Andy Pages (MLB #UR, BA #UR, BP #UR)- A solid season in Ogden got Pages a ton of attention. While still very much a work in progress, Pages fun-natured attitude and style of play have already garnered comps to Yasiel Puig. He makes loud contact and displays a very similar batting stance to the Dodgers current 3B, Justin Turner. Not a big kid, but he is solidly built and has a strong enough arm for RF. BA projects him to have a bad 2020 and then take of in 2021. He is young enough that those hiccups can happen and he is one to watch. If he shows he can adjusts to full season ball relatively quickly, you will start hearing his name more consistently.

    IF Alex De Jesus (MLB #UR, BA #UR, BP #UR)- De Jesus may not have the upside of some of the players before him, but there is a small contingent of scouts that do think big things are on the horizon for this kid. While his introduction to the AZL was a bit rough, his ability to put the bat on the ball and drive it with authority was a solid start for someone that was still only 17 playing against players on average almost 3 years older. If he can continue to grow and maintain his speed or build on it, he can play somewhere up the middle, but if he gets too big and starts to lose quickness, the feeling is that he will have a bat for the corner. It will be interesting to see how aggressive they are this year and if they push him to full season or Ogden.

    RHP Zach Willeman (MLB #UR, BA #UR, BP #UR)- I won't quit you, Zach! This was last years offseason darling and things just did not work out. Reports were that he was looking like Walker Buehler 2.0 with a 100 MPH fastball and 3 plus rated secondary pitches after coming back from TJ and as long as he could throw those pitches for strikes, he would fly up the charts. Welp, he didn't throw strikes and he couldn't strike anyone out. The club was monitoring his innings so he clocked in at only 80.1 IP for the season. He had two stretches that were just abysmal that cratered his season and outside of that, nothing else too spectacular. Even though the game starts weren't there, he was used in a piggy-back role that is not uncommon at the lower levels. So why is he still on here? Cause when he was used in relief a year ago he was throwing 100 MPH with life and showed those 3 + secondary pitches. Those are some hefty tools he has in the bag and if he can somehow put it together, he could be a monster, either as a starter or in relief.
     
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  8. Doughty8

    Doughty8 DSP Legend

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    Who do you think will end up at Cucamonga? Going to try and see more games there this year.
     
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  9. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    I think the second half of the season will be more exciting in Rancho, though the team could push some guys if they want them out of the MWL environment. You should probably see Vargas, Jacob Amaya, Michael Grove, Ryan Pepiot, Robinson Ortiz, Willeman and John Rooney at the start, though a couple of those guys COULD get pushed. Andre Jackson and Rooney are two guys with success in HiA where they may go to Tulsa just to get the pitchers out of the Cal League. Hoese and Busch are probably on the fence, depending how they do in ST. I could see both starting in the MWL, then getting the quick push if they get off to fast starts, which is hard to do up there in the spring. I would be interested to see what the club does with Brandon Lewis in the year ahead. He was a masher that lost a ton of weight since HS and his game has steadily improved. He had a rough start in LoA, but he should see a promotion to Rancho at some point as long as he produces. One other guy to keep an eye out on is Jack Little out of Stanford. He has really taken to the clubs developmental tactics and his secondaries have see a boost. If I am not mistaken, it was either him or Pepiot that popped up in a BA blurb saying that their velo had taken a jump since joining the org which had them with a more likely big league trajectory.
     
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  10. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Pipeline came out with their Top LHP and Catching prospects. Unsurprisingly, nobody from the club made the LHP'ing list and I would not expect that to change any time soon as the org has not drafted or signed many high LH'ers in recent seasons. Robinson Ortiz(#25) and John Rooney (#30) are the only ones even in the clubs top 30. Rooney has been successful in his early tenure, but he does it with pedestrian stuff that has played up with advanced control. He is a big kid, so I would love to see if the org can coax a bit more velo out of him, but right now his ceiling is that of a back of the rotation starter.

    As for catcher, only one Dodgers prospect made the list and that was Keibert Ruiz coming in at #7. This is almost a guarantee now that Pipeline will have him in the bottom half of their top 100 in a couple of weeks. Ruiz is really hurt by not having more time to show his stuff in AAA before missing the rest of the season with an injury. From the sounds of it, he was mostly bored with the idea of repeating a level he had already conquered. He made their list for most to prove after his down year, but funny thing is he still had a better year than the rated one spot ahead of him, who also is a year older and played at a lower level. Ruiz is the 4th youngest player on the list and one of only two players on it that have played above AA and one of four to play above high A. I don't think it is time to start making judgement calls on this kid just yet. I'd expect Diego Cartaya to be on this list by the end of the season.
     
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  11. No Name

    No Name Well-Known Member

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    I take issue with this as well. People want prospects to knock down walls like Kool aid man. They want to be on the next guys bandwagon rather than be rational.

    Ruiz has been the youngest or amongst the youngest players in every league he has been in. He has not gone backwards in any regard. He's just got a Proffesional aspect to his game. He doesn't break rhythm. He doesn't get pressured. He is so mechanical. The sound off of his bat is the best I've heard since Chin Feng Chen (I saw 32 Tulsa games last year.) He knows what's coming and he squares it up, albeit with a level swing.

    Maybe he won't hit 20 home runs with his approach but he most certainly has the power to. I see a 285. 12 390 obp catcher and that's damn good.
     
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  12. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    No Dodgers in the Top 10 1B, not a surprise and really not a position of immediate need anyway. The Rockies had 3 and the D'Backs had 1, but none are currently projected to be anything better than average. It is a fairly weak position league wide. The Dodgers have a good number of prospects that could fall to the position if things don't pan out at more demanding defensive positions.
     
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  13. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    This is a bit surprising, Pipeline came out with their Top 10 2B today and had Michael Busch in at #6. Surprising in that I was not expecting to see him on this list at all. The list is top heavy with two of the top prospects in the game leading the way. Interesting bit on that is they have Rodgers (Rockies) as a 2B now as they don't think he will break in on the left side with the Rockies (understandably). He will be interesting to watch this season as he has face planted at every new level, then adjusted beautifully. Him taking off this season in MLB could go a long way in bringing the Rockies back into the fold.

    Getting back to Busch. He's rated at the top in the category for power with a 55 grade(only Rodgers has a better power/hit combo). They think his ceiling and floor are both very high in the hit tool category. The problem with Busch lies in that they do not think he is going to be very good defensively. The Dodger are putting him at a new position that frankly, nobody thinks he is going to be able to handle. However, they feel his bat will play at any position, so that is good. If he can figure out how to play 2B adequately, the feelings are he would be an "exceptional" bat at the position. The Dodgers are renowned for getting the most out of their prospects, but for the most part it is getting guys to outplay early projections. Busch gives them one of their first prospects that can hit, hit for power and controls the strike zones masterfully. This could be a very interesting prospect to watch in the year ahead.
     
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  14. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Kody Hoese checks in at #10 in the top 3B prospects thread. He did not get written up for any one top quality tool. His helium year that got him drafted, then the meh arrival at LoA probably did not help his projections as they like to see things progress over a couple of seasons. They have his hit tool as average, which is interesting since they do think he should hit well enough to man 1B if a defensive switch is necessary. As with Busch, he will need to show up this season and if he does, he will blow up the prospect list. Since both were college bats, their time to shine is needed to be much more immanent. Hoese also does possess a strong feel for the strike zone, much like Busch as well, but the feeling is Hoese has a higher power ceiling due to his large frame. His defense is solid at 3B, but it has some consistency issues, though they think he should be able to work them out.

    The thing about Busch and Hoese is generally these kind of college bats don't have superstar potential behind them, though this trend is shifting a bit. Both have strong foundations for the Dodgers to build off of, so it will be interesting to see how they are developed. Both kind of remind me of Will Smith when he was drafted, only these two have already tapped into their power before the club snatched them. Smith was a high contact bat that had shown flashes of pop in college. Hoese and Busch could be the type of players that can thrive in the Dodgers system and give the club a decent floor from their recent draft picks.
     
  15. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    The list is updated with the Fantrax Top 250. This is a bit different than other prospect lists as this is from a purely fantasy standpoint. So they are looking at guys that will have the best impact on a fantasy level and how far away they are matters a whole lot. So that made the inclusion of some of the further away Dodgers prospects a bit more interesting to some. If you are asking, "why is Dustin May so low?", the answer is that May does not have a strikeout pitch yet. He is not your prototypical front of the rotation starter in that he can blow guys away. He forces guys into a lot of weak contact and that makes him less valuable from a fantasy level.

    I have also added the Top 50 from Jim Bowden over at the Athletic. He is not and has never been high on May. Whether it be on the radio or in his writing. He has May as a mid rotation starter or closer while most see the floor for May being a mid rotation guy now. Bowden has said that if he were running the Dodgers, Lux, May and Ruiz would all be gone by now. He has also said the same about Smith, Verdugo and Buehler in the past as well. He has at least admitted on air that he thinks that Lux is one of the best hitting prospects in baseball.

    The John Sickels Top 105 also dropped and since I let my Athletic account expire, I had not been able to access these last two until now. Sickels has Lux as #4, but mentions that based on his position, he could be ranked higher. A grades are usually left for guys with star potential, B for guys that are above average and may have a couple peak AS caliber potential years, C's are guys that have a couple starter caliber years, but mostly average starters or bench guys. He mentions that he thinks both Gray and Downs are probably rated too low. He says that Gray is working hard at improving his changeup(#3 pitch) and that Ruiz was VERY impressive after his AAA call up and thinks there is big time potential there.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2020
  16. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    I hope you are right about Ruiz. Though I don't think he necessarily went backwards in 2019, he certainly didn't go forwards at all. When it comes to catchers, a guy can have down years on one side of the ball if it means they are improving on the other side of it. The problem for Ruiz is that apparently did not happen for any aspect of his game. Most reports on him were that he looked like the exact same player as the year before with no improvement on any facet of his game. That is what worries people as that can be seen as him potentially leveling out. I am really hoping that he takes a big step forward in 2020 as some of the things that are dragging him down have been the same things we have been hearing about for 2-3 years now. He is still young, but his window for superstar potential is about closed. He is going to need to show some selectivity at the plate this season and hopefully brings a bit more pop with him as well.
     
  17. No Name

    No Name Well-Known Member

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    You are a prospect guy. When do you ever remember a prospect leveling out at age 20? He spent much of his pre injury season as a 20 year old. He made it to AAA. Perhaps his offensive NUMBERS didn't say that he earned the promotion but whatever the reason, he made it to AAA and did very well until he was injured.

    Not only is he now just 21, but he's a 21 year old catcher. How many catchers are finished products at age 24? Few. He's 21. In regards to his pitch selection, I see zero issues.

    He is a good defensive catcher. That improves yearly. His strike zone judgement simply couldn't be better but that also gives hope for power. Not only is he prodigious in his swing selection but he doesn't swing and miss. His swing is built for line drives. If he sacrafices some bat control and adds some lift he WILL hit for power. He has too quick of hands and too good of a swing to not. He has the hit tool. You don't lose that. You can, however modify it.
     
  18. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    BA Top 100 dropped today and the list has been updated again. Dodgers with the second most representatives at 7. That is pretty substantial as they are only behind the Rays for most prospects in the 100. The Dodgers had a bevy of players in the 80's, including a massive nearly 50 spot drop for Keibert Ruiz. Everyone says the same thing about Lux in that he is going to be a big time hitter, the real question at this point is whether he is going to be able to handle SS due to his throwing issues. He had cleaned that up by the end of last year, but scouts are still very wary of it. They think Gonsolin should be a solid starter for the club and feel he has 4 average or above pitches. I really hope he can get his control more in line, that would cause a massive jump in his potential. They are wary on Downs defensive potential, but think he will hit. I would not be shocked if he slides in for Hernandez in a year as much more potent UTL bat.
     
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  19. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    MLB Pipeline Top SS's dropped today and the Dodgers unsurprisingly had 2 reps in Downs and Lux who came in at #'s 8 and 2. Lux tied with best power, had the highest floor and is their ROY candidate. Downs took humblest beginnings.

    They think that Lux should be .300 hitter with 25-30 HR's and will steal upwards of 20 bags a season. They remark that the arm issues have been fixed, but think that Seager is still the better SS so he should be at 2B. They have him close to being a true 5 tool SS, but falls just shy due to the questions about his defense.

    As for Downs, they said his slow start last season was due to impatience at the plate, I would not be shocked if that was him trying too hard to impress his new organization. Once he settled down, he truly took off. In 2019 he started using the whole field and hitting for power while also showing enough in the field that they think he can stick at SS. He will be interesting to watch this season in that I have seen a lot of people remark that he and Lux are not similar as Lux did not struggle like Downs did at the same age, so his ceiling is much lower. Well, Downs still destroyed the ball for nearly 4 straight months after figuring things out, including an impressive introduction in AA while in his first year with one of the best developmental orgs in the game. We may yet still more upside out of Downs.
     
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  20. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Guys level out all the time in the minors whether it be at 19, 21 or 24, that is far from unheard of. Once teams learn how to pitch to you, they adjust and it is up to you to adjust back. That was the problem for him last year in repeating the level, teams knew what his weakness was and frustratingly, he did not adjust well. I am absolutely not closing the door on him one bit, but he stumbled badly at his first major hurdle, whether or not he was young for the level. The good news is that he plays a position that is notorious for mountain range type development(big up, big downs) and he really could have been disappointed in that he had to repeat.

    Like I have said in the past for him, if he had improved in anything last year I would not be nearly as worried, but the problem is that reports across the board were pretty bland and matched things from 2017 and 2018 that scouts said were some issues he needed to work on, then his explosion in AAA was cut short. Nobody here is arguing his contact ability, we have pointed this out in the past, the worry is that he has still shown that he struggles identifying what pitches are good to hit and which pitches are good to let go. Due to his elite hand eye coordination and poor power, these all have turned into a very mediocre cocktail. Can that be fixed? Absolutely! Is it ok to worry since this has now been his problem for 2+ years? Yup. Have I lost all hope in him? Nope.

    The other thing about his year was that his defense didn't really show improvement either. The arm is stronger than average, but accuracy is still so-so and I have heard issues with his blocking as well since he is not exactly fleet of foot behind the dish. He still does something great that the Dodgers love which is game calling and framing, so that is a huge plus and these skills, plus his high contact rate together give him at least a high floor and will lead him to the majors someday. Still there is reason to worry and the Dodgers FO supposedly willing to move him in trades is also somewhat of a red flag for me as they don't move potential stars. He still is a damn good prospect and his potential is that of a stellar starting catcher, I just think that rightfully so, his ceiling has been lowered from that potential superstar status that he had entering last season.
     
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