ESPN NL WEST Prediction

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by irish, Dec 19, 2014.

  1. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    meh, fwiw
    espn hack's prediction

    1. Los Angeles Dodgers
    2014: 94-68, +101 run differential, lost in NLDS
    2015 projection from FanGraphs: 88-74, +61

    That +61 projection is the highest in the majors, although it does not factor in the Jimmy Rollins trade or any contribution from $10 million lottery ticket Brett Anderson.

    Sure, there is some fear the Dodgers will have trouble replacing the offensive production of Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez, but the Dodgers' path to the playoffs still looks pretty clear:

    --Clayton Kershaw does more Clayton Kershaw kinds of things.

    --Zack Greinke goes 17-8 with a 2.71 ERA again.

    --Hyun-Jin Ryu continue to be one of the more underrated starters in the game.

    --Anderson and Brandon McCarthy show that the new Andrew Friedman-led front office is smart and has super-cool analysis and metrics that justify their signings.

    --Yasiel Puig re-discovers the power stroke that he lost in the second half last season. Even then, let's remember that Puig had the fifth-best wOBA in the NL last season. He still has MVP potential.

    --Joc Pederson hits 20 home runs, steals 20 bases and anchors a much-improved outfield defense. (Steamer projects him to hit 19 home runs and steal 22 bases, although with a .230/.322/.388 line.)

    --Bullpens are volatile. This year's pen will be much better.

    --The team's clubhouse chemistry is improved without Kemp and Ramirez, which maybe can't be quantified but could mean something.

    --Did we mention that the Rockies and Diamondbacks are in this division?


    2. San Francisco Giants [83-79]
    3. San Diego Padres [77-85]
    4. Colorado Rockies [78-84]
    5. Arizona Diamondbacks [75-87]

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/54047/path-to-the-playoffs-nl-west
     
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  2. back2back x 2 + 1

    back2back x 2 + 1 DSP Legend Damned

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    Lol if we get 19HRs, 22 steals and a .322 OBP from Joc i'll throw a party. that'd be major production and huge step in the right direction for him. not to mention, Seager will be licking his chops if he sees Joc produce like that.
     
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  3. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    wouldn't be surprised if he started out slow and then had a huge 2nd half
     
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  4. Shaw

    Shaw DSP Legend

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    Was just about to say, I'd be very happy with that statline from Joc for his first full year.
     
  5. Dodgers99

    Dodgers99 DSP Legend

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    If the things they said about McCarthy and Anderson happen, they will win a lot more than 88 games.
     
  6. KOUFAX0000

    KOUFAX0000 DSP Legend Damned

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    Dodgers will win 91.

    Win another division title (which means jack shit)

    Will lose ugly in the playoffs.

    Dum Dum will finally be fired.

    Ned will resign and become assistant GM of the Houston Astros.



    Dodgers will win the World Series on 2016.
     
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  7. Doughty8

    Doughty8 DSP Legend

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    I think you can make an argument that the Padres deserve to be #2 and not the gnats. They have a pretty good 3 starters and their bully was better than ours by a wide margin and now their offense has big potential although Myers is still an enigma and Kemp is an accident waiting to happen but Upton in a contract year.
     
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  8. Chiefdodgerslkrs24

    Chiefdodgerslkrs24 Among the Pantheon

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    I think it is absurd to put the Padres at 77 wins. That is how many they won last season and they are much improved
     
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  9. Chiefdodgerslkrs24

    Chiefdodgerslkrs24 Among the Pantheon

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    I'd prefer his average be at least .270 and .350+ OBP. I'd take the SB's though and I'd put more stock in his RBI's than HR's.
     
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  10. IBleedBlue15

    IBleedBlue15 DSP Stud

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    The number does seem a bit low, but it doesn't surprise me too much. I think the projections are strongly based on WAR. So you're replacing Seth Smith (2.6 WAR last year) with the 2 WAR projection of Myers or Kemp. Upton's projections haven't been updated yet but I imagine it'd be around 3 wins. It's not like the Padres traded for one or two 4-5 win outfielders like how everyone is making it seem.
     
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  11. Chiefdodgerslkrs24

    Chiefdodgerslkrs24 Among the Pantheon

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    The catcher they got (Norris) was a 3 win player last year. Upton was 3.3 WAR last year (for some reason 29 HRs and 102 RBI's only gets a 3.5 oWAR).
     
  12. IBleedBlue15

    IBleedBlue15 DSP Stud

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    Yeah, but Norris is replacing Grandal and Rene Rivera who weren't too shabby either. My point is they're not making a huge difference in terms of wins. In names, yes; but the team still has a ton of holes.
     
  13. Chiefdodgerslkrs24

    Chiefdodgerslkrs24 Among the Pantheon

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    Rivera was 3.1 (wow!) and Grandal was 1.2.
     
  14. carolinabluedodger

    carolinabluedodger DSP Legend

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    The pAAdres are like the Cubbies. They are cursed.
     
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  15. back2back x 2 + 1

    back2back x 2 + 1 DSP Legend Damned

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    Another common theme: contact. Rollins made contact on more than 85 percent of his swings last season. Kendrick made contact 81 percent of the time and Grandal 75 percent. Kemp swung and missed nearly 30 percent of the time. Presuming the Dodgers are good enough to get to the playoffs -- a good bet -- they should have a better chance of success in the postseason, when pitching tightens up, with a contact-oriented approach.
     
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  16. LASports96

    LASports96 DSP Legend

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    Padres don't concern me as competing for the division at all at this point.
     
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  17. F YOUK

    F YOUK DSP Regular

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    Neither of those guys are Kemps replacement. They are replacing Gordon and Ramirez and each struck out more last year than the player they are replacing. Not by much but I wouldn't expect much more contact from your new lineup that will feature either more ABs from Ethier or Joc and both of those guys strike out plenty.
     
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  18. back2back x 2 + 1

    back2back x 2 + 1 DSP Legend Damned

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    you do know that you can strikeout without actually swinging, right? and the point isn't about striking out nor is it that those 3 guys are replacing Kemp..the point is that all 3 battle in their ABs and it'll likely lead to better results in the post season. see; Giants vs. Strasburg from last post season. however, let's do the comparisons..

    Kemp is 10% below the average in terms of contact and his plate selection has always been shaky..long time struggles with laying off sliders.

    the biggest difference between Rollins and Gordon is that Rollins is far better than Gordon in terms of plate selection. Rollins is swinging at far more strikes than Dee is.

    the biggest difference between Kendrick and Hanley is that Hanley doesn't see nearly as many strikes as Kendrick. both make contact at an 81% rate ( 90% on strikes), but again..Kendrick is seeing more strikes.

    and as far as Grandal and Ellis go, Ellis is a better contact hitter ( way above average) and Grandal is just about average in that regard..however, Ellis doesn't swing at as many strikes as Grandal. Ellis takes more strikes. both of these guys are capable of excelling in a contact oriented gameplan against elite pitching though, so it's a win-win here.
     
  19. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse 2020 World Champions

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    LOL @ the Padres.
     
  20. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    agreed... for now
    but if they were to somehow flip myers and spects for hamels...
    hamels/ross/cashner would be a pretty formidable top three
     

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