DODGERS 2017 MINOR LEAGUE/PROSPECTS Thread

I know you and others on here (especially FALL) love him, but I do not see him as anything more than a 4th-5th OF'er at this point and is most likely trade bait considering the other guys in the system. Comparing him to Bellinger is wrong imo, as they were/are two very different players. Belli started his career as a high contact-low power guy and then adjusted his game to be the high power guy while still maintaining solid contact numbers. Belli's numbers in HiA were comparable, but he still struck out considerably less while being 2 years younger at the time. He then went to AA and knocked his K numbers down even more while maintaining his gaudy power numbers. For Peters to launch himself into the equation, he is going to have to cut his k rate down probably 25% while still maintaining those power numbers this year all while going up against better competition, otherwise he will be quickly running out of time on the potential top prospect scale.

Like I said, he is really going to need a breakout year or else he is in trouble with guys like Verdugo and Diaz ahead of him already and Kendall being potentially a similar player, but with ++ speed and defense.

 

As we get closer and closer to the start of spring and still no big trades, one thing to watch for going into the season is how the team treats Verdugo. In some scouting circles, due to his age and need to tap into more power there is belief that the club may elect to stash him in AAA until September again also pushing back his arb and control. That would probably be a smart move so that the club doesn't have to deal with 3 fucking Boras clients in Seager, Bellinger and Urias over the course of a couple of seasons and then have potentially Buehler and Verdugo to deal with the same offseason after that.

 

What I love about Peters is he jacked Bumgarner twice in one game. That's about it
Impressive height/athleticism spec and he looks the part, but not to point where I've stopped dreaming about Harper in LAD blue
Not even close, don't get it twisted
Same can be said for Verdugo, neither guy has me feeling like Harper isn't the way to go

 

I would rather have Harper as well, but I really think it is far-fetched that the Dodgers are where he lands. I think the Yankees or a surprise AL team is his eventual landing spot as his injury issues probably won't stop him from getting a 10+ year deal, but it will probably not be from an NL team. Also, watch the White Sox as a potential underdog in the race for his services. They have under $30M in controllable assets for 2019 and with their farm, could be ready to make a couple considerable moves.

 

Used to be conventional wisdom, but the NL is adopting the DH soon enough for Harper to settle in closer to home

 

Billy Ashley Jr?

 

I would wager that within a few years we do see the DH in the NL, but I would also never assume it to be a finite decision. Every time it is brought up with the MLBPA it is quickly squashed as too many of the big name pitchers prefer to bat and NL owners generally do not want the DH for financial reasons. Plus, there is a much bigger issue on the horizon with what has happened this offseason. We are likely looking at at least one more CBA agreement period before that is implemented and likely it would be 2+ years after the agreement for it to come to fruition as teams need lead time. So some team taking on Harper for 12 years and $400M in the NL is taking a much bigger risk than an AL team and if there is one thing our FO is, it's risk averse.

 

Personally, I want a level playing field and the AL has it easy handing out extra long contracts and just having that DH spot there as a safety net for the sluggers when they need rest and/or just have to be taken out of the field as they age or pile up injuries.
I say both leagues either play without the DH or both leagues play with the DH..fuck this one gets it and the other doesn't fuckery

 

It is funny, but they actually put up similar slash lines in their age 21 seasons... The only thing is that Joc still struck out WAY less than Peters did all while playing in the pitcher friendly Southern league in AA, compared to Peters who did it in the very hitter friendly Hi-A California League. If he turns into another Joc that would be a freaking huge get for the org, but honestly right now he is more Jerry Sands than Joc Pederson.

 

Seems most of the talent will be starting at either Rancho or Tulsa.

Alvarez
Diaz
Ruiz
White
Smith
Sheffield
Santana
May
Peters
Ferguson

Will almost certainly start at one level or the other, likely some others as well.

 

Listened to a podcast earlier today on the Dodgers prospects. It was interesting as it had one of the BP guys and two other prospect folks that I can't remember, but it gave really in depth analysis of the Dodgers system. It was long so I will do my best to summarize what I remember.
Buehler - Everyone thinks he has the stuff to be a front end starter, but they think he is a couple years away from being a regular big league starter. His inning count is still far away from handing the reins over to him. His stuff is good, but needs to take another step forward before they think he is an elite force to build a rotation behind as for now it may not be the type of stuff that gets him through a lineup 3 times.

Verdugo- These guys were really high on him. They think he is a .300ish hitter who has an ability to get on base at a good clip. They said a good comp is a Daniel Murphy who walks occasionally as Verdugo has the projection to be the old Daniel Murphy, but his strength and bat to ball skills allow him the upside to be the new Daniel Murphy.

Ruiz- They both like him, but not in love like some other services are. His swing from the right side is supposedly pretty bad and behind the plate he is merely good, but that Will Smith could push him to changing positions. His swing from the left side makes for him being a dangerous platoon option if he can't figure things out the other way. Sounds like another switch hitting catcher in the organization.

Mitchell White- He needs to add a better changeup and show he won't wear down over the course of a season to enter the fold as a rotation pitcher. Guys struggle squaring him up and at worst they see a good middle reliever. If he can get back to where he was at the beginning of the season with his velocity and maintain it over the course of a whole season, he has the upside of a #2 starter. Though after this past season, they project back end reliever with closer upside.

Jeren Kendall- This is something that was common in the podcast. The organization totally remade his swing last year and the adjustments that he made, they liked. He is still iffy since the sample size was small, but his athleticism gives him a the window of a very high ceiling prospect.

Yusniel Diaz- As I said there is a common theme, the org completely remade his swing and once he got comfortable, he took off. They think his numbers in AA(close to .900 OPS) are more indicative of the player he will be compared to his first half numbers. If that is the case, the Dodgers have another stud OF on the horizon.

Yadier Alvarez- One of them thinks he is shot and is only a reliever at this point. The other thinks he still has the upside of a #2 in the rotation as his stuff when on is filthy and his delivery is so smooth. Basically, if he figures it out he will be incredibly dangerous.

Will Smith- Both guys felt he is so good behind the plate that he could push Ruiz off the position. He still has a bit to go offensively, but they think he would be in the upper echelon for defensive catchers and that would be hard for this FO to ignore. Though his bat isn't amazing, they think he could put up average numbers at the position without much improvement, but his athleticism gives them hope he can be a first tier catcher from both sides of the plate.

Dennis Santana- If he doesn't continue to progress this season with his other secondary pitches, he is the next great closer in this organization. His sinker is just that good and his slider is good enough to make him scary. If he continues to tweak his mechanics for the better and his feel for the change up continues to leap forward, then he is a front line starter with #2 upside.

DJ Peters- His improvement over the latter part of the season raised some eyebrows. He took a tremendous step forward with his approach at the plate and they think he could be more real than I personally have felt on this board. It sounds like he has a knack of swinging out of his shoes the first two strikes, before buckling down and finishing the at bat better. They want to see that at AA and he'll need to drop his K rate into the sub 28% range for them to feel confident in him. They did say if he puts it together, he could be scary good.

Edwin Rios- On the surface, he looks like a guy who is going to fail, but he continues to produce at every level. They think he is probably about MLB ready and could be a dangerous LH bat in a LH/RH platoon. He is limited defensively to 1B/DH and break glass if needed 3B.

Drew Jackson- The team completely remade his swing during the season and the improvement at the end of the year was obvious. Began to hit the ball with authority and has played well in the field as the team started to move him around the diamond. They see a really good Utility player as his upside(Enrique Hernandez with less pop, but better defensively).

Dustin May- Similar to Santana and White in that he has a couple pitches right now that could make him a dangerous backend reliever. Also similar to White and Buehler is that they have big questions about his long term durability as he can't seem to put on any weight to his wiry frame. Similar to all of those that came before him, if he can continue to improve his secondary pitches he has #2 upside, if not he is likely destined for a back end reliever.

Starling Heredia- One of the guys thinks he is a star in the making, but that he has a long way to go. His build is scary, but the bat is for real.

That is all I can remember. One other thing they asked was who is the next guy that takes a jump that we have never heard about and both answered Cristian Santana. This is a little wild for me as the guy turned 21 yesterday and he has played all of 44 games at Lo-A after 3+ years in rookie ball. They said his D at 3B is legit and the bat is going to make a lot of noise this year. One felt that after some graduations this year and his projected strong showing, Santana will be a top 10 3B prospect in baseball.

They talked about just how good the development department is in the organization and how the Dodgers are probably the best in baseball at this point. They said that the org does a great job of attacking holes in players game and improving them. The club has done a good job of targeting pitchers with 1 elite pitch and a good secondary pitch with hope they can develop something greater out of the player which is why so many Dodgers pitchers have upside of a front of the rotation pitcher, but have really high floors of back-end relievers if they can stay healthy and never develop their 3rd-4th pitches. There is not that one workhorse in the organization that could lead a rotation. Buehler just doesn't have the build or history to warrant that. Both he and Urias have the stuff to be dominant aces, it is just a matter of staying healthy and improving control/command.

For the positional players, they feel many will be trade bait as there is just not room for most of these guys. As good as Rios has been, he is not the type of hitter that this FO likes, so they feel that he will be the Dodgers biggest piece floated at the deadline. Verdugo is the one they think has the highest floor in the system, but if the Dodgers decide to bring Puig back, he'll be gone since RF is where his defensive value is.

The one thing they said the Dodgers don't have right now is a future star which they have had entering each of the past few seasons with Puig, Pederson, Seager, Urias and Bellinger. The players they have now on the surface are good filler, but they are going to need some big seasons from a few of these guys to quiet some potential concerns. The Dodgers system is solid, but there are a handful of guys toeing the line and keeping the Dodgers teetering between a top 5 org or one in the middle of the pack. What is keeping them up as high as they are is the unbelievable amount of high upside depth in the system and belief now that the Dodgers know how to churn out stars.

 

Much appreciated summary and insight

 

Verdugo's athleticism is so pedestrian. Maybe he's a shade better than average, but nothing pops off the screen with him. Would make sense if most of his defensive value was in the corner, but then offensively the pop isn't where you want it for a corner guy, so he just doesn't feel complete at all. We fuckin wish he could play 2B like Daniel Murphy is doing. His lack of pop wouldn't hang over him as much at 2B..wouldn't have to be a plus athlete either.

Peters @ 6'6", and a plus athlete, there's some CF potential here. CF the position where you allow for some offensive slippage, given that, his situation is quite a bit different than that of corner man Jerry Sands. If Peters can play a plus CF defensively and hit 25-30 HRs, hard to give a rat's ass if he strikes out 175-200 times. That position is a pretty good place for a potential 3 true outcome guy. A guy that's as blessed as he is physically, we can only hope he continues to progress both defensively and offensively. His showing in the AFL was pretty weak, so not overly optimistic in his case. But as it is, with so much raw upside, there will probably be a good amount of suitors for him on the trade market.

 

Smith potentially moving Ruiz off catcher is a weird take. In a scenario where Smith beats Ruiz out, I would be shocked if Ruiz wasn't traded elsewhere, where he'd be valued as a catcher. There's too much value/potential at that position to just move him somewhere less significant position-wise. That would be a disaster, unless you're telling Ruiz is moving to 2B or SS