DODGERS 2019 MINOR LEAGUE/PROSPECTS THREAD

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by ColoradoKidWitGame, Jan 4, 2019.

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  1. Fall Winslow

    Fall Winslow McRib

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    Gotcha. I remember the Arenado rumors, but not the Rendon rumors. We saw the cracks in JT's defense by the end of last season. Probably safe to say it's a full fledged decline at this point, but it looks like the bat will still play at 1B. So who's getting squeezed? Muncy moving to LF? Muncy trade?
     
  2. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Couple of MiLB Updates:

    • Baseball America named Gavin Lux player of the year.
    • MLB Pipeline updated their Top 100 for a final time. Lux is now #2, May #33, Ruiz #34, Gray #76 and Downs #88. Smith and Verdugo graduated
    • None of the Dodgers affiliates won their leagues in postseason play as the Drillers lost on a 9th inning grand slam in the AA championship deciding game.
    AAA- Did not make playoffs. Only affiliate to come in under .500
    AA- Lost in Championship
    HiA- Lost in Semi-Finals
    LoA- Lost in Championship
    Rook- Lost in Championship
    AZL Mota- Lost in First Round
    AZL Lasorda- Did not make playoffs
    DSL Shoemaker - Did not make playoffs
    DSL Bautista- Did not make playoffs

    That is a great year again for Dodgers affiliates. Last year, the story was how much talent was knocking on the door. Going into next season we will start to see a more steady stream of readiness as the talent is much more spread out than in years past. The Dodgers current Top 15 will likely look like this in the spring:
    Lux- MLB
    May- MLB
    Ruiz- AAA
    Gray - AA
    Downs - AA
    Gonsolin - AAA
    Hoese - Hi or Lo A
    Busch - LoA
    White - AAA
    Santana - AAA
    Cartaya - LoA
    Peters - AAA
    Amaya- HiA
    Grove - HiA
    Estevez - AAA

    So a good mix of ready, almost there and another couple of years away. Don't expect this to be our top 30 at the start of season as there are a number of guys outside this list that had very impressive seasons.
     
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  3. lastatman

    lastatman DSP Legend Staff Member Moderator

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    Looks like they're prepping these kids nicely... should be an easy adjustment to the big league club.
     
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  4. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    A lot of the clubs top prospects currently on the roster were among the 2018 AA champion Tulsa Drillers.
     
  5. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    First game of the AFL season
    Jeren Kendal hit a HR in his first game!!!!………………………………… and struck in the other 3 at bats.
    Gerardo Carrillo went 3 innings, giving up only 2 hits and striking out 2 as well.
     
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  6. Sauce

    Sauce Troll

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    Vargas should see a big jump. The top 5 should include Ruiz, Downs, Cartaya, Gray, Vargas. The first three are definitely top 100 prospects for me. Lists may not include Cartaya due to his age/small sample, but based on his tools, potential, and production (in limited time), he belongs. You can argue Top 100 status for the latter two. Considering Lux, May, Smith, and Gonsolin all graduated, it is quite the accomplishment that we still may have 3-5 top 100 prospects.
     
  7. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Lux won't graduate this year and the only way May and Gonsolin will is if they hit a service time number which I am not sure they will. I agree that Vargas will move up, but he is probably not cracking the current top 7 or 8 just cause his power is not there yet. If his power shows up next year, I totally will be on the same page and agree that he is a top 5 guy. If he can't start to develop that loft here soon, his chances of being an impact player are greatly diminished since defensively he is very mediocre and is destined for 1B/3B. I'd argue him and Cartaya have the highest ceilings of the lower level dudes as that swing is sure beautiful.
     
  8. Gebbeth

    Gebbeth DSP Legend

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    Don't understand. What about pitching? Isn't that priority 1 and 1A?
     
  9. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Probably, word is the club is expected to re-sign Ryu. With Kershaw, Buehler, Maeda, Urias, May, Gonsolin and Stripling under contract, if they bring back Ryu then that’s probably it for starters. Maybe they go after Cole as that has been rumored, but I don’t see them bringing in both.
     
  10. fsudog21

    fsudog21 DSP Legend

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    Hopefully a short term deal for Ryu. As great as he's been this season (recent dip aside), he's still an injury risk and is far from a workhorse.
     
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  11. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Seems to be the consensus around the league. Most teams view him as too big of a risk and the Dodgers have the history with him and he is said to not be thrilled with the idea of leaving the org. So sounds like they won't have a lot of competition for his services and will likely do a shorter term deal.
     
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  12. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    PCL Top 20 just dropped
    3. Lux
    8. Smith
    Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin did not qualify due to the amount of innings they pitched.
     
  13. Gebbeth

    Gebbeth DSP Legend

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    Yeah, the next Kershaw is a very loaded compliment.
     
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  14. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    That is good to hear and something I have read as well. I think his desire to learn is a big reason why Fangraphs was so bully on him from the get-go. While most had him in the mid teens for our top prospects, they had him hovering the Top 5 almost from the start and on the cusp of the top 100. His work ethic is supposed to be fantastic, along with this new crop of prospects we have as the FO definitely has a type. He definitely has the chance to be something special and we may need that if Buehler continues his Jekyll and Hyde shit beyond this season. While I am excited about Gray, the pitching could be a big question mark going forward if some guys don't take that next big step.
     
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  15. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    In a recent chat over at Baseball America, Kyle Glaser had a couple tidbits about Dodgers AAA prospects:
    • Gavin Lux's rankings are carried a bit more as they see his defense being supremely valuable at 2B(or SS, though many think it will be hard for him to break in at the position). While his offense is expected to be at least above average, there are other MIF bats that will likely be a bit more dangerous.
    • They think that Dustin May is a #2 and Josiah Gray is a #3 in the future, though more realistically he feels they will slot in as a 3 and 4(BA always err's on the side of caution with pitcher projections).
    • Edwin Rios is a regular starter at this point to most scouts he talks to. With the glut of 1B guys on the roster, he thinks a team with a need at 1B/DH should try to pry him away this offseason. A lot of folks have thought this for a while now. He should be good, but he has some struggles with higher velo and does not project out better than guys like Bellinger, Muncy or a Lux/Downs that would keep Muncy at 1B to block Rios.
    • Dennis Santana was dealing with off the field all season which impacted his game for the early parts(he makes some odd twitter posts). Once he was moved to the pen, he looked much more comfortable that is where he thinks he will stay going forward.
    • Mitchell White dealt with blisters all year and the belief is that it is time to move him to the pen. Too many issues with him breaking down for their liking and the feeling is he will be moved to the pen if they want him to be a big leaguer going forward. This is not a huge shock, but is very disappointing to hear as this dude has some of the best stuff in the minors when he is clicking... which is not for very long stretches. With Buehler, Urias, May, Gonsolin, Gray and Stripling all being under control for a few more years and couple intriguing pitchers at the lower levels, I could see them moving White to the pen, finally.
     
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  16. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    @ColoradoKidWitGame, haven't seen much on ruiz lately
    where's he at as far as projections?
     
  17. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Texas League Top 20 dropped today
    #1 Lux
    #3 May
    #7 Ruiz

    May got props for his change taking a big step forward this year, plus the dangerous arsenal of hard stuff we have all witnessed. Ruiz struggled with the same issues that have cost him in the past as his bat to ball skills are ELITE and he makes too much contact. So he does not walk and he will make a lot of weak contact on pitches that are not really good hitting pitches. Still gets props for just not hardly at all striking out and his already good defense took another step forward. He was on a tear after his promotion to AAA before an injury ended his season.

    Little info on him today. Still seen by many as a first tier catcher, but he has got to stop swinging at things outside a good hitting zone.
     
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  18. rube

    rube DSP Legend Staff Member Administrator

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    But imagine if he suddenly grows in strength and all that weak contact start to drop for doubles or catch air for home runs?
    We can have our very own Molina type catcher.
    Can't wait for Smith and Ruiz to be the best catching duo in baseball.
     
  19. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Cal League Top 20
    #6. Gray
    #9. Downs
    #18. Devin Mann

    There has been a lot of talk about Mann in that he was probably our most improved prospect year over year. A pure light hitting non-prospect without any position flexibility became a power hitting super utility player that should find his way onto an MLB roster. Sounds kind of like what Hernandez should be, but the defense is a step behind for Mann.

    Downs took off after a shitty introduction to the org. He probably would have been higher on this list if it was not for that start. Downs is supposed to be a very hard worker and his skills across the board took a step forward. A swing that I had heard described to be somewhat long is said to now get a lot of praise and he has no problem catching up to velocity. Downs also started to become more selective in his approach and that could have helped with his progress. Though he did see the jump in his defense, they still project a multi-positional bat first player. With Lux and Seager in the fold, it will be interesting to see where he plays in AA next year.

    Gray was only in HiA for 12 starts, but they were enough to get him a solid rating. Gray's FB was graded as the best in the league with a ton of late life and a velo he at 93-96, which he holds late into starts. The slider is graded as above average and the change only average. It's enough to get him a mid-rotation projection, but he'll need to improve those secondaries to see front of the rotation upside.
     
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  20. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Interesting article on Downs that just came out from MLB Pipeline. Basically says that Downs had one of the best seasons in the power tool department based on ISO(also explains the meaning in great detail). If he posts similar numbers in 2020, it is likely that he will move to a 60 grade power tool and leap to the upper tier of the Top 100 list. Instead of being a dead pull fly ball hitter like in the previous year, he started driving the ball to all fields with power and less ground balls. An increase in his line drive rate makes the transition all the more intriguing and believable, but they want to see what he can do outside of the Cal League and over a full season... but fuck did they just get me really excited about this kid. A keystone combo of Lux and Downs could be a dangerous duo.

    https://www.milb.com/milb/news/tool...the-ups/c-310972634?tcid=tw_article_310972634
     
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