FEDIT POLITICS Thread

Office of the Governor of California
@CAgovernor
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Time to put pen to paper on a plan to leave this state.

 

i hear you loud and clear and came to that conclusion many years ago under stalinist tax audits
and yet i still have a lot of ties to the area
my light is flickering but i'm holding out a tiny bit of optimism for the backlash
can't believe the amount of people in my own community fighting for huge homeless shelters in the middle of town
but this is just a faceless suit and his wondering how to keep his face in the spotlight

 

Fuck you’re authentic, lol. Massive respect.

 

Bro he lives on a mountain preaching from on high
i shit you not

 

I was watching 'It's a Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad World' the other day. California looked like heaven on Earth back then. But I guess that was a long time ago.

With these 2-3 percent interest rates, much of my work the past few months has been refinance appraisals in South LA proper. The imagery is hilarious to me as I drive through these neighborhoods. "Re-Elect Maxine Waters" signs against tagged walls with piles of garbage at the base of them. Nobody seems to be working. It smells like weed and piss. But nobody cares. "She fights for us all!" Then, there are homemade signs... "Register to Vote. For Change. Black Lives Matter". You have Maxine Waters "serving" you a steaming pile of dog shit for 30 years in your own back yard. You have Gavin Newsome and Eric Garcetti doing the same, if not worse. Many of your neighbors are losers. When are they going to change? You think Joe Biden and Kamala are going to change things for you from DC in 4 years (or less)? How did Barack Hussein and his wife Big Mike work out for you? I can't take this state seriously.

Then the Californians who have the means to leave go spread the disease to states like Colorado, Arizona, Texas, and Nevada.

Idk. I want to believe this state will wake up and I would be happy to see it happen. Gotta plan for the worst though.

Life is too short to be consumed with politics as a spectator sport and to make all of life's major decisions based on red vs blue. But when a state is this poorly governed with no pushback from its people, state politics/policy has to be a consideration.

 

like i said i'm right there w you but where to run to lad?
a lot of places look amazing when i see the where the friends and neighbors have run to but when i start researching them they also have their downsides
such as homeless, tweekers, long humid periods, snow etc.
i've watched international destinations go from appealing to shitholes in a short period of time
imagine if you had moved to Venezuela?
seems like lots of places have leaders w their heads up their asses
didn't know you had gotten involved in appraisal work
this market is going against everything i've ever seen in a real estate market
horrible taxes, people literally fleeing in droves, businesses being pummeled and shuttered forever, owners unable to collect rent and the government printing cash
and yet the last 6 months have seen valuations rise at unreal numbers and homes disappearing off the market in record time
i know low interest but it still makes little sense
what are you thinking the dealio is here, what does your boss think?
i have to think its going to end w a shit ton of bank owned properties
at least that's what i'm telling people who ask me but fuck what do i know?

 

^ agree w all that just try to stay a step ahead and while i didn't anticipate and real reductions in real estate here i was caught off guard by how much hedge is happening
no matter what you've known or seen in your life no one can plan top or bottom but you can have a decent idea
i'd get into my positions but maybe over a beer sometime
always interesting to listen to what others have to say about the subject

 

The weather in SoCal is better than Reykjavik ?
NOT.

 

Where do we go? It's a fair question.
It's true that all places have their drawbacks.
The difference is, in California you pay 6-7-8-$900,000 even with its drawbacks.
I can get a new house on acreage next to a lake in Idaho for less than I would pay for a tract home in Lakewood.
And there would be no "In this house we believe science is real, no human is illegal and love is love" sign across the street! Wooohoooo!

From a valuation perspective (which is all I'm qualified to comment on)...
Almost every Market Conditions Analysis I put together lately has a Declining # of Active Listings and an Increasing Absorption Rate.
In other words, there aren't many listings and they are sucked up quickly (as you noticed).
Also, the Median Sales Price is usually much higher than the Median List Price. People are paying above asking because the competition is so fierce.
Even when the # of Listings increases or remains stable over a 12 month period (which is the case in certain areas), the stability/increase does not actually indicate a sufficient housing supply.
It sounds like a cop-out, but it's (mostly) supply/demand.
I don't see that going away. The mass exodus isn't massive enough.

As for bank owned properties...
If you have people putting less than 20 percent down, cashing out any equity they have, spending in excess of 50% of their income on their mortgage, and the government is increasing their taxes and making their money worth less and less...
I think that is a safe bet.
The beauty of having a 5+ year plan to leave CA is that as long as someone has no consumer debt, sticks to a written budget and saves, they are probably going to be in a good position pivot and to jump into the CA housing market if/when it crashes. That's what I'm thinking.

I am no expert whatsoever.

 

Reykjavik, NJ, of course.

 

Just FYI, there are more town and cities in NJ than in any other state in the US...amazing when you realize NJ is pretty small. What I would like to know, is why ?
Must be due to greed and politics from the get go, I would say.
That would be very Jerseyish, indeed.

 

I didn't know what happens in CA happens to the rest of the country, too.
Damn...earthquakes, too ?
Keep dat shit out dere, mang.
Send one here, and we retaliate with an ice storm.
Great fun...