DODGERS All that is Wrong about WAR

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by CapnTreee, Sep 29, 2017.

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Is WAR a manipulated nonsense stat?

  1. Yes, I see no Kershaw thus no further proof is required

    20.0%
  2. Yes, but you're too complicated

    40.0%
  3. No, I don't care about stats being made up because I can't understand them anyways

    20.0%
  4. No, I'm in favor of made up stats and hate Kershaw anyways

    20.0%
  5. Yes, but only because I mock things I don't understand

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. CapnTreee

    CapnTreee Guest

    My gawd this is a bigger subject than I really have energy for tonight but I've long maintained that REAL baseball statistics are those with absolute metrics. No one can debate Batting Average, Slugging Average, Earned Run Average, RISP, WHIP and all other stats based upon documented events in the official scorebook.

    I'm not a Luddite either and agree that there are a vast amount of new computer aided metrics within our reach today that would be foolish to ignore as they matter too. Still certain 'Saber' stats when examined closely by someone familiar with math and stats ALWAYS reveal a number of arbitrary 'fudge factors' which can never be defended. By either Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference. Everybody has a formula attempting to give a single magic reference number which itself is bullshit when you process the logic.

    So I look at WAR, oWAR, dWAR blah blah but when every one of the WAR stats violate a correlation to ALL of the REAL statistics then I call BULLSHIT!!

    On the DSP site I have engaged in many hours of debate on this topic alone and everyone is welcome to their own opinions however wrong they remain. I shall hereby provide the PROOF of the folly of WAR and will do so by use of our favorite (regular season) pitcher perrenial Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw.

    I'll use the baseball-reference.com site for these examples but the other site loosely correlate in promoting this nonsense statistic.

    Earned Run Average (traditionally one of if not the most statistic for a pitcher)
    Kershaw 2.21 (#1)
    Kluber 2.27
    Scherzer 2.55
    Strasburg 2.63
    Gonzalez 2.75

    Wins
    Kershaw 18 (tied #1)

    Kluber 18
    Carrasco 18
    Vargas 18
    Greinke 17


    Win / Loss
    Wood .842
    Kershaw .818 (tied #2)
    Kluber .818
    Strasburg .778
    Carrasco .750
    Ray .750
    Greinke .739

    WHIP
    Kluber .861
    Scherzer .907
    Kershaw .930 (#3)
    Sale .970
    Strasburg 1.038

    BB/9
    Samardzja 1.387
    Kershaw 1.579 (#2)
    Kluber 1.631
    Nova 1.733

    The first observation that nearly every MLB fan would make reviewing this data is "Wow Kluber is having an almost Kershaw like year" as they are so closely matched and so much better than the other pitching leaders who themselves are so much better than 98% of humans playing baseball.

    The next data shows the problem with
    WAR for pitchers
    Kluber 8.0
    Scherzer 7.0
    Gonzalez 6.9
    Verlander 6.3
    Greinke 6.1
    Sale 6.1
    Strasburg 5.9
    Stroman 5.9
    Carrasco 5.9
    Severino 5.4

    Now why don't any of you fine 'Saber' fans lurking in the closets of this DSP echo chamber explain what loose wingnut thinks that WAR means ANYTHING when the best damned pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, is in the Top 3 in EVERY pitching category and yet appears NOWHERE on this bullshit made up artificial losers stat called WAR. Notice that nearly EVERY other pitcher shown in the charts appears on the WAR chart.. except Kershaw.

    Looking at all of the REAL statistics I'd place Kershaw at a WAR of ~7.8 - 8.1 depending on category weighting. WTF is up with NO ONE protesting Kershaw not even being on the list?

    Clearly missing a couple games DID NOT impact his leading the entire sport in pitching.. yet again. But some pimple over at ESPN will be crowing that he's not worthy of Cy Young votes because he's not on the list for this made up nonsense stat.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 29, 2017
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  2. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse 2020 World Champions

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    WAR has been wonky at baseball-reference all year, it was mentioned briefly a few months ago.

    There is no standard WAR formula, so all sites have different calculations. This is good and bad, but what I really don't like is that it's hard to find out what formulas sites are actually using.

    WAR is also a counting stat, so Kershaw will get knocked for missing a month. But I think it was before he missed time when we were wondering what's going on. Kershaw's WAR feels low even amongst pitchers with similar innings pitched, and even on other sites like fangraphs. I think the advanced stats are hitting him hard because his HR allowed is up this year, which could be chalked up to bad luck.

    But agree, WAR isn't perfect. Not even close really. But like any stat, I will still use it when it supports my argument.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2017
  3. rube

    rube DSP Legend Staff Member Administrator

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    I think we need our own dsp metric.
    It would only use the standard stats in its formula but with a bevy of modifiers that compensates for non stat things like dominance leadership expectations chemistry clutchness quality over quantity etc...
     
  4. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse 2020 World Champions

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    Likes Above Replacement Poster?
     
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  5. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    and that's great for you, me and the other troglodytes here
    problem is you've got one network hack basing everything on one stat, and [then] another swearing by another one
    bottom line is there is no one end all/be all stat and you can make anyone look better by manipulating the numbers
    ba or babip? era or fip?
    imo stats should be used to support an argument, not base one on







    Brian Kenny does not like this.
     
  6. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    caf... confidence above fucks
     
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  7. Gebbeth

    Gebbeth DSP Legend

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    WAR.....good god y'all
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing....
    Say it again....
     
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  8. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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  9. fsudog21

    fsudog21 DSP Legend

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    Edwin Starr nods his head in approval.
     
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  10. BigDaddyKaine

    BigDaddyKaine DSP Legend

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    So @irish is Mike Trout then, right?

    Guess that means I'm the equivalent of James Loney.

    I don't like this suggested stat.
     
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  11. dodgers

    dodgers DSP Legend

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    Ok so: a hypothetical "someone" (not named, no example given) will "ALWAYS" (no examples given) find "fudge factors" (not named, no example given) revealing hidden arbitrariness within the statistic (no supporting evidence given)?

    This is obviously total horse shit.

    He isn't near the top of WAR leaderboards because he hasn't been nearly as good this year as he has been in previous years. He's giving up more homeruns than he ever has (at a worse rate than anyone above him in the rankings you posted). That's a huge part of it.

    The other huge part of it, which is old school/not SABR is that he's averaging far less innings per start this season than in any year since 2010:

    2017 - 6.57 (6.76 without taking into account the game he was pulled from)
    2016 - 7.09
    2015 - 7.04
    2014 - 7.33
    2013 - 7.15
    2012 - 6.88
    2011 - 7.06
    2010 - 6.37

    I don't think even Kershaw would say he deserves the Cy this year, for the simple reason that he hasn't been vintage Kershaw.
     
  12. IBleedBlue15

    IBleedBlue15 DSP Stud

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    ^ Not to mention he missed like 2 months and WAR is a counting statistic. Not that hard to see why he's where he's at currently.
     
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  13. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    can't be trout
    i have terrible home/away splits
     
  14. TAFNAC

    TAFNAC Cossack Staff Member Administrator

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    I fully support Ruvens creation of an impossibly complex formula for a DSPWAR.

    It would also need to include facial hair length, sock/stirrup style, left or right eye dominance, etc.
     
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  15. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    nah man, that's hispterWAR
     
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  16. TAFNAC

    TAFNAC Cossack Staff Member Administrator

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    That's like douche-above-replacement--which is more of an off the field stat.

    Factors include:
    *Stupid beards. Extra douche if you use product in it.
    *Vaping. Extra credit for tutti-frutti or Italian Cake flavor. More points for the larger your vape apparatus.
    *Participating in cross-fit
    *Stupid tattoos.
    *Vegetarianism/Veganism.
    *Gluten free diet.
    *Love for obnoxiously bitter craft beer. Extra points for brewing it.
     
  17. rube

    rube DSP Legend Staff Member Administrator

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    stupid beards, check
    vaping, check (not nicotine, certainly not gay flavored)
    cross fit, i dont believe in idols
    tats, looks good on others if they want to tat themselves up for my viewing entertainment who am i to stop em but on me no thank you
    vegan/veggies, true veggies dont care what others eat nor do they always eat only veggies and sometimes eat a little meats or broths or butters sparingly without compromising their vegynism because they dont eat meat dairy and eggs with nearly every meal or nearly every day.
    gluten free diet, thats a real thing you unbelieving cretins and bread is so good but eating too much gluten raises inflamation leves so i try to mix in more breads made with high mixes of pseudograins and seeds/nuts instead of whole grains which are terrible for your body in the long run regardless of their temporary energy and nutrient punch.
    craft beer, no check fuck that noise i had an ipa...once
     
  18. TAFNAC

    TAFNAC Cossack Staff Member Administrator

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    Stupid beards means length of 6" or longer. Or shaved into some dumb form...like a chinstrap.
     
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  19. rube

    rube DSP Legend Staff Member Administrator

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    oh nevermind then
    i just have a deformed left jawline so one side of my beard is always trying to go the opposite direction
    and my attempts to match the sides make them even more ridiculous
     
  20. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo Among the Pantheon

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    Didn't we do this once before??
     

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