DODGERS The CY YOUNG Thread

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by bestlakersfan, Aug 29, 2015.

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Who would you vote for the 2015 NL CY Young award?

  1. Clayton Kershaw

    37.5%
  2. Zack Greinke

    62.5%
  3. Other

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo Among the Pantheon

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    They may cancel each other out...Arrieta may squeak by.
    The official scorer may play a part in this, incredbly. Faggot.
     
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  2. THINKBLUE

    THINKBLUE DSP Gigolo

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    Buster taking Kershaw...

    Kershaw complicating Cy Young conversation
    by Buster Olney, Senior Writer, ESPN Insider

    [​IMG]


    A few years ago, after Clayton Kershaw won his first Cy Young Award, ESPN asked whether we could tag along during one of his winter workouts. Kershaw arrived at the indoor football practice facility for his old high school, Highland Park in Dallas, and he was alone.

    No personal trainer. No public relations person. No workout guru. No entourage. Nobody assigned to hold his glove. Nobody but Kershaw, who put himself through a few hours of work lifting weights, running sprints and long-tossing into a net.

    Kershaw is not about frills. He is about substance, so it makes sense that he generated an old-fashioned complete-game win Wednesday night as the Dodgers squeezed the Giants again -- likely out of the NL West race. Kershaw threw 132 pitches and struck out 15 batters in what may be remembered as one of the final nails in San Francisco's playoff hopes.

    Last week, two evaluators who saw Kershaw work against the Cubs said they believe he is throwing the ball better than at any point in his career, because he commanded the ball inside to right-handed hitters, as well as outside. "I've never seen him able to control that side of the strike zone that well," said one of the staffers.

    Kershaw's recent performances continue to complicate what will be an increasingly difficult choice for the National League Cy Young Award voters, among Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta.

    A look at some category leaders in the NL:
    • ERA: 1. Greinke 1.59; 2. Arrieta 2.11; 3. Kershaw 2.18
    • WHIP: 1. Greinke 0.85; 2. Kershaw 0.90; 3. Arrieta 0.94
    • Innings: 1. Kershaw 194; 2. Greinke 186 2/3; 3. Max Scherzer 184; 4. Arrieta 183
    • Strikeouts: 1. Kershaw 251; 2. Scherzer 219; 3. Madison Bumgarner 200; 4. Arrieta 190
    • xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching): 1. Kershaw 2.05; 2. Arrieta 2.74; 3. Bumgarner 2.91
    • fWAR (FanGraphs' WAR): 1. Kershaw 7.1; 2. Arrieta 5.4; 3. Greinke 5.3
    • Wins (I wouldn't factor them into a ballot, but some writers would):1. Arrieta 17; 2. Bumgarner 16; 3. Greinke 15 (tied with Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha)
    Following Kershaw's effort against the Giants, I'd rank the NL Cy Young ballot this way, if I had a vote (full disclosure: I haven't had a vote for any award since 1996).
    1. Kershaw
    2. Greinke
    3. Arrieta
     
  3. lastatman

    lastatman DSP Legend Staff Member Moderator

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    I still think you need to look beyond the numbers and give Greinke extra consideration for his amazing consistency all season. Not to say I'd be disappointed if Kershaw wins it.
     
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  4. chris

    chris Guest

    At this point if Kershaw doesn't win it'll be looked at like when Pedro didn't win the MVP in 2000
     
  5. lastatman

    lastatman DSP Legend Staff Member Moderator

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    Tough question.

    To simplify it a lot, I only looked at WS-winning seasons, and no earlier than 1960.

    I'd say they're making a great case for it. However, RJ and Shilling in 2001 would be hard to argue against. Both won over 20 games and had almost 300+ strikeouts each. Combined WAR was 17.9.

    Koufax and Drysdale had some incredible years together, with impressive numbers in wins, strikeouts, and even better ERAs than RJ/Shilling. Looking at the '63 and '65 championship years, they had combined WARs of 14.6 and 14.0, respectively. (I'm not sure how WAR compares across various eras, to compare against Johnson/Shilling)

    The '95 season may have been Maddux' best. Glavine was solid, although statistically it wasn't one of his five best years. Their combined WAR was 15.0.

    Honorable mention to Seaver/Koosman in '69 with a 12.1 WAR.

    Obviously, there are many other statistically great seasons that didn't result in a championship. But if we're talking about the best, and the pinnacle of success means going all the way, I think the conversation has to start there.

    Right now Kershaw and Greinke have a combined WAR of 14.5. At this rate it projects to around 17.5 by season's end - definitely in RJ/Shilling territory (and the way Kershaw is pitching in the 2nd half, it could conceivably be higher). If Kershaw is able to get his ERA below 2.00, that could be a big plus (has that ever happened before between a pair of teammates?). They will still come up light in combined wins, but considering how much of that is dependent on offense and bullpen effectiveness, it's hard to ding them much. The WHIP numbers - both at 0.90 or less - are phenomenal.

    So in reality, if they can lead this team to a Championship, they will have made a really strong case for title of greatest season by a 1-2 punch. Let's hope we can have that conversation in a couple months.
     
  6. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    good stuff cap!
     
  7. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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  8. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo Among the Pantheon

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    Crazy idea...co CYs?
     
  9. Nirvanaskurdt

    Nirvanaskurdt DSP Legend

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    Just give CK the NL Cy young and ZG the AL Cy Young.. fuck it. And give the MVP to the GuggenGods for signing these two. I just hope they re-sign Zack cause he is fucking amazing! :nod:
     
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  10. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo Among the Pantheon

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    Might have to change dieties there, mate. Nedgod, I think.
     
  11. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo Among the Pantheon

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    Lawdy...Great green light.
     
  12. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo Among the Pantheon

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    The juggernaut offense tonight...me likey
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2015
  13. Nirvanaskurdt

    Nirvanaskurdt DSP Legend

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    Mat Latos should win the NL Cy Young tbh :mad:
     
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  14. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo Among the Pantheon

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    I was wondering; as we head for a divisional championship and a spot in the post season (hopefully we hold on, although I do believe our NLW tilted schedule will kick our asses), if we get eliminated by poor BP performance, (or non-offense), is it really important which one wins the CY award?
    All this sturm and drang it seems, is a trophy piece for the shelf of one of these guys.
    What does it matter if the seemingly endless string of failures continues...?
     
  15. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse 2020 World Champions

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    RJ/Shilling is always the combo that comes to mind when I think of great 1-2's, since I actually saw it. Their postseason performances were unbelievable. I think you could have paired those two with any 23 random players, and they would've won the WS. What Kershaw and Greinke are doing feels like that caliber, but it's still the regular season. If they continue like this in the postseason and we win a WS, then we can start the discussion.
     
  16. carolinabluedodger

    carolinabluedodger DSP Legend

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    Not crazy, but very unlikely.

    Co-MVP's Keith Hernandez and Willie Stargell -1979
    Co -Cy Young's Mike Cuellar and Denny McLain - 1969

    Co-winners on the same team???

    Na...na...na...NOT gonna happen.
     
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  17. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    Why Greinke deserves the NL Cy Young Award over Kershaw
    by Jayson Stark, Senior Writer | ESPN.com — 40 minutes ago

    [​IMG]
    If this year's Cy Young Award comes down to a contest between teammates, should Zack Greinke or Clayton
    Kershaw win? USA TODAY


    I can’t believe I’m writing this. I can’t believe I feel the need to rise up to “defend” a pitcher with a 1.59 ERA. But hey, somebody’s got to do it.

    Over the last few days, my good friends Buster Olney and Keith Law have written fascinating, thoughtful pieces in which they argue, essentially, that:

    1. A Dodgers starter should win the NL Cy Young Award this year;
    2. That it’s NOT Zack Greinke.

    Well, they're not nominating Mat Latos, obviously. They're talking about Clayton Kershaw. And what the heck, you can never go wrong trying to make a case that the best pitcher in our solar system should win an award that is supposed to go to, well, the best pitcher in our solar system.

    So I get it. I see it. I respect it. I've thought about it. I just beg to differ. And, if you look at the award predictions made a few days ago by our esteemed panel of ESPN baseball geniuses, you'll notice that pretty much all of us differ.

    Nevertheless, the Kershaw-for-Cy-Young campaign is definitely picking up more steam than, say, the George Pataki for President campaign. So it’s time for someone -- by which I mean me -- to lay out the case for The Other Guy.

    Now clearly, a lot can change over the next four weeks. But if the season were to end today, which remains highly unlikely, Zack Greinke has to be your 2015 NL Cy Young winner. And here’s why:

    Because guys with 1.59 ERAs always win the Cy Young award

    Greinke goes into his start Sunday in San Diego with an ERA so spectacular that only three qualifying starters in the entire live-ball era have beaten it over a full season. Perhaps you've heard of them: Bob Gibson in 1968 (1.12 ERA), Dwight Gooden in 1985 (1.53) and Greg Maddux in 1994 (1.56).

    [​IMG]
    Will Zack Greinke become the latest starter to bring home hardware WITH an ERA of 1.59 or lower? USA TODAY

    I probably don't have to tell you what Gibson, Gooden and Maddux have in common. But I'll do it anyway. They all won the Cy Young award in those seasons.

    And ohbytheway, for what it’s worth, they all won it unanimously, too.

    So think about that. Since baseball started handing out Cy Young Awards 60 seasons ago, not only has no qualifying starter pitcher with an ERA below 1.60 failed to win this award -- nobody with an ERA this low has ever failed to collect EVERY vote.

    OK, I acknowledge that Luis Tiant had an ERA of exactly 1.60 in 1968 and lost out to a fellow who won 31 games (Denny McLain). But McLain had an ERA under 2.00 himself (as in 1.98).

    And I acknowledge that, in 1981, Nolan Ryan had a 1.69 ERA and somehow finished fourth! But it was an odd, strike-shortened season. And for more insight into some of the other forces at work, check out our Fernandomania 30 for 30 sometime.

    But the point is this: To make the case that anyone other than Greinke should win this award, you’re essentially arguing that ERA doesn’t matter. And boy, is there an irony to going down that road to build a case AGAINST Zack Greinke.

    That’s because in 2009, when Greinke won his first Cy Young, it was his glittering ERA (2.16) that was the single biggest reason he won. And at the time, we actually looked at that as a breakthrough. Remember? It felt like the first time voters had looked past a guy’s win total (16, in his case) and voted for the man who had -- shocker -- pitched the best. Quite a concept.

    Since then, Cy Young voters have proved, year after year, that they’ve come a long way in how they evaluate candidates. But have they suddenly come such a long way that they’re now tossing 1.59 ERAs into the irrelevance dumpster, right alongside win totals? Seriously, let’s hope not. I’ll explain why in a few paragraphs.

    Because this is not a career achievement award

    I think Clayton Kershaw should have won the last four NL Cy Young awards, including the one R.A. Dickey won in 2012. So let’s get that out there.

    I also think Kershaw is in the midst of the most dominant five-year run of starting-pitching greatness since Pedro Martinez’s amazing stretch of brilliance from 1999 to 2003 (or 1997-2001 if you prefer). So let’s get that out there, too.

    But when it comes time to vote for THIS Cy Young, in THIS season, hey, sorry. None of that matters.

    [​IMG]
    Clayton Kershaw has been overpowering this season, but whiffs aren't the only way to get people out. Getty Images

    As fantastic as Kershaw is, as stupendous as he’s been for a lonnnngggg time, the period we’re asked to evaluate for this award kicked off on April 6, 2015, and ends Oct. 4, 2015. And there are no bonus points for overall awesomeness. Yeah, life is unfair that way. But it just is.

    Because the season didn’t begin in June

    If the season had merely started on June 27, this would be easy. Kershaw has made 12 starts since then. Here’s how those 12 starts have gone: 0.96 ERA, a TOTAL of 10 earned runs allowed, about twice as many strikeouts (120) as hits (61) in 91 innings, a 120-to-9 strikeout-walk ratio and a 7-1 won-lost record.

    Wow.

    Greinke in the same span hasn’t exactly been Cy Yuk himself, by the way. He’s 10-1, with a 1.47 ERA. And opponents are hitting .168/.206/.230 against him.

    But head-to-head, over their last 12 starts, Kershaw has been The Man. No doubt, right?

    Unfortunately for him, we’re required as voters to count all his starts this year, not just the ones where he’s been most superhuman. And that’s where this gets interesting.

    When Kershaw was 5-5 with a 3.33 ERA after his first 15 starts, there were definite indicators that he was really pitching better than those numbers would indicate. But was he outpitching Zack Greinke? ’Fraid not.

    Unless, of course, you were just looking at stuff like FIP. Or strikeout ratio. And that’s where his supporters are still looking. But that brings us to our final argument . . .

    Because this isn’t the Cy Whiff award

    Where are the numbers that say Clayton Kershaw has pitched better than Zack Greinke in 2015? Basically, you can find them in one place on the old stat sheet: The strikeout column.

    Kershaw: 251 strikeouts in 194 innings, which comes to 11.6 K’s per 9 innings.

    Greinke: 169 strikeouts in 186.2 innings, which comes to 8.1 K’s per 9 innings.

    All right, score one for Kershaw. But now let’s look at the other big stat columns.

    We’ve already covered ERA. But what about opponents’ batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS? Greinke leads Kershaw in every one of those categories. Every one. And the difference in their ERAs is more than half a run (1.59 to 2.18).

    So to really argue that Kershaw has had the better year, you’d have to look at stuff like FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), where Kershaw has a big lead (2.03 to 2.62). But remember, that’s heavily weighted toward large strikeout totals.

    Or you could look at their respective Batting Average on Balls in Play, where you could try to use the numbers (.290 against Kershaw, .237 against Greinke) to suggest that Greinke has just been luckier than Kershaw.

    Well, maybe in some ways, Greinke HAS been luckier. But here’s why I don’t think we can allow that to matter -- unless their stats across the board get a lot closer over the next four weeks.

    Metrics like FIP and BABIP are tremendously useful tools in many ways. But what they’re really telling us is what SHOULD have happened, if data were as all-powerful as some people would like it to be.

    Well, call me old-fashioned, but I’ve always thought that when it came time to vote, we should be voting on what ACTUALLY happened, not what theoretically should have happened according to the numbers.

    And what’s actually happened this year is this: Zack Greinke has been significantly better at preventing runs than Clayton Kershaw. How do we know? Their ERAs are telling us, loud and clear.

    Feel free to believe there are more incisive metrics now that help us delve deeper into the science and mathematics of pitching than we’ve ever delved before. I won’t argue you’re wrong.

    But until we start deciding games based on how many runs a team SHOULD have scored, according to the data, instead of how many were ACTUALLY scored, I’m saying that it’s the real runs that matter. And real run prevention matters. And ERAs matter.

    So I find it almost hilarious that I’ve had to make this case, for a man having not just a great season but a historically great season. But I did it anyway. Because someone had to.

    Zack, you can thank me later. At your Cy Young victory party maybe.
     
  18. Nirvanaskurdt

    Nirvanaskurdt DSP Legend

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    Completely lost me with that sentence.. :smh:
     
  19. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    don't kill the messenger
     
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  20. Nirvanaskurdt

    Nirvanaskurdt DSP Legend

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    Clayton Kershaw’s true competition isn’t from this century
    By Joel Sherman

    September 5, 2015 | 5:50pm





    [​IMG]
    Clockwise, from top left: Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Clayton Kershaw, Don Drysdale and Greg MadduxPhoto: Getty Images (3); AP; NY Post file



    The reaction to another Clayton Kershaw tour de force Wednesday — striking out 15 and going the distance on 132 pitches to pretty much eliminate the Giants from the NL West race in the first week of September — was to wonder if he was now the Cy Young frontrunner.

    But that kind of misses the point, like seeing just the first 10 floors of the Freedom Tower.

    Kershaw no longer is playing just for the 2015 Cy Young. He is playing to be Cy Young.

    His competition is not teammate Zack Greinke and the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta. That is too limiting in scope, to just this year. The competition is Greg Maddux and Tom Seaver and Sandy Koufax and Lefty Grove and the best who have ever worked 60 feet, 6 inches from home plate.

    “Twenty or 30 years from now, the next generation will think of Kershaw the we talk about Koufax, Seaver, [Nolan] Ryan,” said Dan O’Dowd, who as general manager of the Rockies from 2008-14 saw Kershaw’s first seven seasons up close in the NL West. “You are dealing with consistency of performance, an overwhelming competitive fire, a great passion for the game, a great teammate, a great ambassador for the game. The only thing that can derail him from being one of the greatest of all time is injury.”

    Sometimes it is hard to appreciate in real time, but we are watching a historic pitcher at the peak of his powers.

    Yes, I know, he has not been good in the postseason and that will have to change — beginning this year — for him to remove the one smudge on his résumé.

    But are you going to define a pitcher by eight starts in October or the 236 so far on his regular-season ledger?

    “The thing I don’t think he gets enough praise for is just how good of a pitcher he is,” a scout said. “His stuff is obviously overwhelming, but he has a really good feel for the craft of pitching. He throws a ton of strikes, he commands everything, and he can make an adjustment on the fly. This is not the type of guy who is going to fall off the map, he’s built to be great for a really long time.

    “If he stays healthy — always a huge if — it’s hard to imagine him not being one of the all-time greats given how young, talented and committed he is.”

    [​IMG]
    KershawPhoto: AP

    Kershaw has been brilliant for the length of his eight-year career, a genius for seven and — well — Koufaxian now for the last five.

    As a lefty and a Dodger, Kershaw is often bonded to Koufax, who actually has become one of the leaders of the Clayton Kershaw fan club.

    Koufax created his legacy over his final six seasons (1961-66), when he won three Cy Youngs and finished third once (in fairness, before 1967 there was a single Cy Young given to cover both leagues). In the past four years, Kershaw has won three Cys and finished second once, and likely will wind up no worse than third this year.

    “It goes beyond the stuff in the comparison to Koufax, it is about will and having to wrestle the ball out of their hands,” said Joe Torre, who faced Koufax as a player and was Kershaw’s first Dodgers manage. “The makeup is essentially that he wills himself to success. Long-term contract, short-term contract, [Kershaw is] basically going to take the ball and give you everything he has got. He has no back off in him. He is strictly a very aggressive pitcher and I mean pitcher — not thrower. If you spend any time with him he is special and belongs in the group of the best I have seen with [Juan] Marichal, Koufax, [Don] Drysdale, [Bob] Gibson. He certainly fits that group.”

    Koufax had an ERA-plus of 156 for those elite six seasons. I use ERA-plus because it is a fairer stat to compare players of different eras since it factors in the league and ballpark, then gives a result against league average — an ERA-plus of 156 is 56 percent better than league average.

    [​IMG]
    KoufaxPhoto: AP

    Kershaw’s career ERA-plus is 154, it is 164 for the past six years and 172 since 2011 when he won his first Cy. The only pitchers in major league history to have a better five-year run for ERA-plus are Pedro Martinez from 1999-2003 (228), Maddux from 1994-98 (202), Randy Johnson from 1998-2002 (174) and Grove from 1935-39 (173).

    Kershaw is not yet through his age-27 season, but just to give an idea, that career 154 ERA-plus is bettered through the same age by just two pitchers in history — Walter Johnson (176) and Martinez (156).

    Kershaw has had an ERA-plus of at least 133 in each of the past seven years. Whitey Ford did it eight times in his whole career, Seaver nine, Maddux and Christy Mathewson 10.

    At this moment, Kershaw is tied with Martinez for the best career ERA-plus among starters. Of course, he has a lot of miles to go. But that includes what appears several more in his prime.

    There actually was a narrative earlier this season wondering what was wrong with Kershaw. He was 2-3 with a 4.32 ERA through nine starts. Did I mention that Koufax is a leader of the Kershaw fan club? This is what Koufax told the Los Angeles Times at that point: “Before the season is over, those numbers are going to be right where they always are.”

    In his 18 outings since, Kershaw is 10-3 with a 1.26 ERA, a .175 batting average against and — get this — 178 strikeouts and 18 walks in 135 2/3 innings. In other words as brilliant as ever.

    On Aug. 23, Kershaw said his underachieving, $300 million squad needed to play with greater “urgency.” He offered that after Los Angeles had lost earlier that day when Kershaw had allowed one run in eight innings, striking out 10 and walking none.

    What stands out to so many around the Dodgers is not just the greatness in Kershaw’s arm, but how competitive he is and how much he cares about winning. So if you say those words that challenge others, you have to rise yourself.

    In the two starts since that statement, Kershaw has faced the wild card-bound Cubs and the Giants — the lone NL West team that is a threat to the Dodgers. He has pitched 17 innings, yielded two runs, walked two and struck out 29.

    That left him at 251 strikeouts. That is the most by a Dodger since Koufax fanned 317 in his final season, 1966. It also means that with either five or six starts left, depending likely on just when (if) the Dodgers clinch the NL West, Kershaw has a chance to become the first major leaguer to whiff 300 since Johnson and Curt Schilling in 2002.

    No disrespect to Greinke and Arrieta, but these are the names that Kershaw dances with now — Johnson and Schilling, Pedro and Unit, Seaver and Grove. It is not about one Cy Young any more with Kershaw, it is about being compared to the original.
     
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