Odds

A couple things I've been thinking about, and wanted to crowdsource a little bit.

What are the odds Matt Kemp out-WAR's Hanley the next 5 years

What are the odds Zack Greinke is a Dodger in 2016

What are the odds Dee Gordon is a 2.5 win 2B in 2015

What are the odds Crawford has a higher WAR than Ethier in 2015

 

- What are the odds Matt Kemp out-WAR's Hanley the next 5 years: 80%
- What are the odds Zack Greinke is a Dodger in 2016: 33%
- What are the odds Dee Gordon is a 2.5 win 2B in 2015: 70%
- What are the odds Crawford has a higher WAR than Ethier in 2015: 50%

 

Feel free to add to this. I included these four because the more I think about it, I think my offseason plan would be

-Let Hanley leave
-Trade Crawford and $ for whatever
-Sign Russ
-Sign a SP, preferably Shields

I understand it would increase the payroll slightly over where they want to be, but with letting Hanley go it wouldn't be drastic. Also I think Greinke is going to opt out, and it'd be nice to just let him leave at that point and have Shields slide into the 2 spot.

 

Generally agree with 1, 2 and 4. Think Dee is more like 40%

 

- What are the odds Matt Kemp out-WAR's Hanley the next 5 years: 80%
- What are the odds Zack Greinke is a Dodger in 2016: 40%
- What are the odds Dee Gordon is a 2.5 win 2B in 2015: 25%
- What are the odds Crawford has a higher WAR than Ethier in 2015: 65%

 

I like the @ feature!

 

Love that you're getting on board with the SABR overhaul!

 

What are the odds Matt Kemp out-WAR's Hanley the next 5 years - How is WAR calculated for DH's?
What are the odds Zack Greinke is a Dodger in 2016 - 99% He's the best #2 in baseball. Why would the Dodgers let him go?
What are the odds Dee Gordon is a 2.5 win 2B in 2015 - 5% his .346 BABIP and 2.3 FIP won't hold up
What are the odds Crawford has a higher WAR than Ethier in 2015 - WGAF?

Welcome back, Vince.

 

Greinke is the best #2 in baseball, and a #1 in a lot of MLB rotations. Can't let him go.

 

Not about letting him go, he has an-opt out clause and will likely trigger it to get another big contract. There is NO assurity that we will sign him back to this kind of a contract, particularly if we pick up Scherzer or Lester this off-season.

 

Then pay him. He's earned it.

 

Don't disagree, but not sure what this OS will look like or what the goals of this FO will look like with starting pitching. Long ways to go, which is why I put the odds of us getting him at 33%.

 

If he exercises the opt-out, I have to think the odds are still in favor of the Dodgers re-signing him. He lives in L.A. The Dodgers have the money. And as far as we can tell there's a good relationship between Zack and the Dodgers.

 

If he has yet another solid year, it's going to get crazy. Would probably be more wise signing someone now as insurance or trading for someone like Hamels. I absolutely love Greinke though.

 

I don't get why you guys think he might opt out. He alternates between $23 and $24 million the next 4 years. How much more do you think he could get on the open market?

 

Instead of 3 years at $23.5M, he'll get $25M for 5 or 6 years. That is a difference of $54.5M to $79.5M. And yes, teams will give him that.

It's more about the number of years than the $/year.

 

Maybe, but I don't see it. He turns 32 in October of 2015 and at that point negotiating for that kind of AAV for that number of years might be a stretch. Depending on who is in the FA pool and his health at that time, it could be a gamble. We'll know in about a year.