CLOSED (NLDS) DODGERS/PHILLIES

not feeling good about this series
our starting pitching and offense can compete with/beat anyone
but you know philly was watching these games thinking — just get to their bullpen and the game is ours
and it’s tough to disagree

 

Second year in a row that the NLDS opponent is the hardest opponent for the Dodgers imo

Hope it ends like last year

 

See, I don't understand why Scott can't be left off. In the playoffs you go with your most effective players - and those that there's a purpose for - and he's just not one them. Sure, he's being paid a lot of money, but it's not like they're cutting ties with him, he'll be back next spring. Maybe next year ends differently.

And I hope Sheehan isn't judged by just the one outing and is included in this next series. Especially after Roberts slow danced with him on the mound yesterday, gazing lovingly into his eyes. Wouldn't want Emmett to feel used like a cheap date.

 

I think we're looking at the Phillies as a tough hurdle in this series - and they will be. But also, I don't want to give them too much credit. They're not unbeatable. Here are some quick arguments both ways:

Phillies played good ball down the stretch. Won their division by 13 games over the Mets. Took 6 of 9 against the Dodgers. Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Realmuto are all legit weapons, plus more. Highest BA in the NL. Sanchez had the highest WAR among ML pitchers. Fifth lowest ERA in the league as a staff. Home field advantage is big for them as they were dominant at Citizens Bank. And the biggest advantage... their bullpen isn't a total disaster.

Dodgers - if the end of the season and the wildcard round are any indication, the team has "clicked on" at the right time. Dodgers had better power and more runs scored during the season. While hampered by their bullpen, the Dodgers starters are superior, especially with Wheeler out. They can start a legitimate ace in every game while the Phillies rotation starts getting a little thin as the series progresses. Regular season head-to-head is irrelevant - just ask the '88 Dodgers and Mets. And finally, I just read - and this is hard for me to believe - that while leading the majors in blown saves, their bullpen numbers were better than Philly's since the start of September (source: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...s-preview-phillies-brewers-mariners-blue-jays ).

 

add banda, casparius, kersh and possibly klein
cut henriquez, emmett and scott
idgaf about feelings/ego, friedman & co needs to man up and do the right thing if they’re truly serious about winning

 

fuck the phillies but i don’t think we get past them
they’re much more steady and consistent
if the reds got to our pen twice but couldn’t close the deal — the phillies will
only hope would be to win both of the first two games
but since that’s not happening…
phillies in 4

 

Good points and the only one I might disagree with is highlighted. They're most likely going with Sanchez in game 1, Suarez in 2, Luzardo in 3, and either Nola or Buehler in 4. I'm not certain what Dastardly Dave has in mind, but Ohtani - Glasnow - Snell - Yamamoto makes the most sense to me. Sanchez is going to be tough -- 2.50 ERA/1.06 WHIP and his 8.0 WAR is pretty scary. Ohtani (2.87/1.04) can match him, but for argument sake let's say we lose that one. Game 2 they have Suarez (3.20/1.22) - solid but nothing too special. Glasnow at 3.19/1.10 is comparable (I wish Glasnow had a better postseason history... frankly that worries me some). But point is that we should be able to take one of two. From there, we have a heavy advantage with Snell vs Luzardo (3.92/1.22) and Yoshi vs either Nola (6.01/1.35) or Buehler (unless he finds playoff-Buehler mode). I like our chances in games 3 and 4 so at worst that forces a game 5. Would Sanchez really outduel Ohtani twice?

I'm totally oversimplifying this... I know the pens are an issue (sounds like Phillies have problems too) and then you've got to factor in hitting and fielding and home field and, oh yeah, the managers I just think this series is closer to 50/50 than what might appear on the surface.

 

@juanpowel1918
For all the phillies fans that want to talk about "dodgers buy championships"… phillies is literally top 4 in payroll, basically same payroll as the Yankees…
1. LAD — $350M
2. NYM — $342M
3. NYY — $300M
4. PHI — $290M

 

perhaps
just hard to block those 8th innings out of my mind

 

there is no present
there is no future
there’s only the past…
repeating itself over and over
— Eugene O’Neill