DODGERS The TUCKER Thread

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by irish, Apr 13, 2026.

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Kyle Tucker is…

  1. merely pressing and will soon return to the player he was

    100.0%
  2. the worst FA signing ever and is the first brick to crumble in the Dodgers’ dynasty collapse

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    @brownsonjacob2
    Is Kyle Tucker pressing? Almost certainly. The underlying numbers back this up, but the bigger picture isn't as concerning as it may look.

    @JeffSpiegel highlights the following below:
    • Whiff rate: 20.2%->27.1%
    • Chase: 17.6%->24.2%
    • First pitch swing: 36.3%->58.2%
    • Swing: 45.2%->53.6%
    That jump in first-pitch swing rate stands out the most. It’s the second-largest increase in MLB from 2025 to 2026, trailing only Juan Soto. That alone tells you this is likely a shift in approach.

    Being aggresive isn't inherently bad, but it's causing Tucker to get behind in counts at an alarming rate. His First Strike % in 2026 is 74.6% (+18.3), meaning Tucker is down 0-1 in a concerning amount of at bats.

    Why does this matter? Count leverage is EVERYTHING. This was how Tucker faired after 0-1 counts compared to 1-0 in 2025:

    0-1:
    .232 AVG
    22.6% K%
    .730 OPS
    107 wRC+

    1-0:
    .279 AVG
    11.1% K%
    .920 OPS
    158 wRC+

    Even though Tucker is being more aggressive early in counts, it isn’t putting him in better situations. Instead of getting ahead, he’s often falling behind 0-1, where pitchers gain control of the AB and can expand the zone. That shift in count leverage is a big reason why his production has taken a hit.

    Here’s the part that's important for avoiding overreaction:

    The spike in early swings isn’t caused by reckless chasing. A big part of it is that pitchers are simply attacking him more aggressively with first pitch strikes. The image below shows every first pitch strike against Tucker this season. Pitchers are controlling the ABs by throwing strikes early.

    That dynamic is unlikely to hold forever. Pitchers rarely maintain that level of first-pitch strike frequency against elite hitters over a full season. As that normalizes, Tucker should naturally find himself in more hitter-friendly counts again without needing a dramatic adjustment.

    Tucker does look like he’s pressing a little bit. His approach has clearly shifted toward early aggression, and it’s putting him in more disadvantageous counts.

    But this isn’t a broken hitter. It’s a combination of slight over-aggression and pitchers exploiting it temporarily.

    As the league adjusts back (and Tucker inevitably does too), the underlying talent should reassert itself, and the results should follow.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. rube

    rube DSP Legend

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    didnt the president call him a traitor
     
  3. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    @SleeperDodgers
    Kyle Tucker last 7 games:
    • .200 AVG
    • .523 OPS
    • 0 HR
    • 4 RBI
    It’s been a slow start for Kyle Tucker, no doubt— but I still believe he’ll turn the page and put together an All-Star caliber season; it’ll just take some time.

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. LAdiablo

    LAdiablo descarado

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    The thing that is worrisome is that the longer this goes on the worse the grip is in his brain
     
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  5. F!nski

    F!nski DSP Legend

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    Hey ... relax, guys. He can't be any worse than Conforto last year, right?


    [​IMG]
     
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  6. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo Among the Pantheon Moderator

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    Not that I want him back instead, but I believe Conforto was better comparatively at this point last year.
     
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  8. LAdiablo

    LAdiablo descarado

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    at least he hustled and made some decent plays on defense
    if sucker is a gg out fielder i sure don't see it
    at the plate he has little to no discipline
    my Cub friend said he was baffled at how he was so sought after as well
    only 4 years more of it
     
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  9. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo Among the Pantheon Moderator

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    Guy Tucker looks as average as every 34 B cup cheerleader I want to high school with.
    I feel the same way when he comes up AB as I do when Teo does. And they both field out there like the duflus twins. I thought we had a good RF, for a while anyway. He was that guy who is always sick or/and injured right ? I saw him a while back, I think. What happened ? Where did he wind up?
    Dodgers get the two big mega signings in the off season...and where are they now ?
     
  10. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    anthony rendon 2.0
     
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  11. lastatman

    lastatman Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    I'd like to believe that he's too good a hitter to continue at this paltry production rate. I'm holding on to that for now.

    That doesn't mean I don't have concerns. After a great start to 2025, he really faded in the second half. From OPS of .935, .882, and .982 in April, May, and June, respectively, he finished with .675, .735, .516 in the final three months. So his .705 OPS so far this year seems to be a continuation of a decline that started last July. In theory, his numbers should be even better now with Ohtani hitting in front of him and any of Betts, Freeman, and Smith behind him. He should be getting good pitches to hit. Hopefully the Dodgers didn't buy a broken product.

    For one thing, he swings at more first pitches than anyone in the NL other than Ezequiel Tovar. If that was working for him, it'd be understandable. But it's not really the Dodgers M.O. as they're usually pretty good at working pitch counts. Maybe pitchers have come to know this about him and look to give him something they know he'll swing at early, but not very hittable. I don't have stats on that, just speculating. I wish he'd be more selective though, and maybe later in the count he'd get better pitches.

    When we signed him I assumed he'd opt out after two. Now I'm starting to hope we're not stuck with him for four.

    It IS still early though.
     
  12. LAdiablo

    LAdiablo descarado

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    i'd feel a lot better if it seemed like there was some kind of fire burning in him
    so far he's whiffing like cody used to at low and outside and walking away like andrew jones used to
    no change of expression on his face and zero hustle at his position
    not getting good jumps or taking good routes like i was expecting
    almost like he's cruising on reputation and as nice as the rest of the guys are they compete
    still even if that does bubble over what do you do w him and what was the FO thinking?
     
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