NEWS/RUMORS/DISCUSSION Thread

Are the Giants or Dodgers the better fit for Greinke?
by Cliff Corcoran | Sports Illustrated — 6 minutes ago

With David Price and Jordan Zimmermann having already found their new teams, all eyes are now on Zack Greinke. According to the latest rumors, Greinke has narrowed his search to his former team, the Dodgers, and their National League West rivals in San Francisco, and is likely to reach a decision this week on a deal that could break the record tied by Price's seven-year, $217 million pact with Boston for the highest average annual value of a contract in MLB history.

According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Red Sox were negotiating with Price and Greinke simultaneously, and it was Greinke’s request for a decision from the Red Sox by Tuesday night that led to Boston coming to terms with Price. With Boston no longer in play, Nightengale and others are now reporting that Greinke is expected to sign with the Giants or Dodgers for a deal in the neighborhood of either $160 million over five years or $192 million over six years. Both of those deals work out to $32 million per season, besting the record $31 million average annual value of Price’s new contract, which tied Miguel Cabrera’s latest extension for the highest AAV in baseball history—something that is indeed Greinke’s goal, per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.

Those figures aren’t completely out of line with what our What’s He Really Worth formula projects as Greinke’s value over the next five or six seasons. Using an unadjusted 5/4/3 weighting of his last three seasons to project his 2016 Wins Above Replacement, we get 6.3 bWAR for the coming season. With a decline of 0.8 bWAR for each subsequent season and a 5.4% increase in the cost of a marginal win for each season, our system tells us that Greinke will be worth $176 million over the next five years and $196.6 million over the next six.

That 6.3 bWAR looked high to me, however, as a figure too heavily influenced by his clearly fluky 2015 performance. Tracing his steady pre-2015 improvement forward, I overruled the system and projected a more realistic 5.2 bWAR for Greinke’s '16, which drops his projected value to $134 million over the next five years and $144.9 million over the next six. Roughly one win of WAR in year one makes a big difference in his projected value; we’re talking about a pitcher who will be 32 in the first season of his new contract, one which will take him to or beyond his age-36 season. At that age, as previously detailed, few of even the best starting pitchers of the last 15 years have managed to remain above replacement level.

From a financial perspective, then, a Greinke deal averaging $32 million per year would be a better investment for the Dodgers, who have the extra money to burn, as it is likely to play out like the five-year deal the Phillies gave Cliff Lee prior to his age-32 season. Lee pitched at his expected level for three years, got hurt in year four and missed all of year five; the Phillies still owed him $25 million for that season plus $12.5 million to buy out his 2016 option. Greinke’s decline may not be as dramatic and complete, but there’s little reason to expect him to be even an average starting pitcher in his age-36 season, which would be the fifth year of a deal signed this off-season.

The Dodgers can eat that money on the back end, but the Giants—despite their great run of championship success and the potential for more in the early years of a Greinke deal—would be more limited by what could be tens of millions of wasted dollars in first two years of the next decade. Simple spending power would thus seem to make the Dodgers the favorite to land Greinke, as they would seem to be more willing to add on a sixth year that would cover Greinke’s age-37 season and is likely to be a sunk cost.

The Dodgers also offer Greinke familiarity and continuity. Per Molly Knight, author of The Best Team Money Can Buy about the Greinke-era Dodgers, “Greinke has great friends on the team and in the org[anization] and is well-liked. He loves [pitching coach] Rick Honeycutt. He has young family and owns a home here.” Greinke has also been very involved in the organization, joining front office personnel in their decision room on draft day in each of the last two years.

From Greinke’s perspective, however, the greater concern may be which team can get him to the World Series in the next few years. The Giants have been there and won it three times in the last six years and are well positioned to make another even-year run in 2016 assuming they can keep Hunter Pence healthy; they should also enjoy the continued maturation of their homegrown infield. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have made the playoffs the last three years in a row with Greinke in their rotation but have not made it to the World Series since 1988. Los Angeles is inarguably a talented team and one that will continue to spend as necessary to keep those playoff berths coming, but the Dodgers are also in something of a transition this off-season.

Beyond the change of managers from Don Mattingly to former Padres bench coach Dave Roberts, the Dodgers aren’t sure what to expect in the coming season from Yasiel Puig or Hyun-jin Ryu, both of whom were limited by injuries in 2015 (Ryu missed the entire season after shoulder surgery). They have an awkward combination of aging players (Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier are all entering their age-34 seasons) and youngsters still looking to establish themselves (infielder Corey Seager, centerfielder Joc Pederson—who had a brutal second half in his rookie season—and perhaps second baseman Jose Peraza and lefty starter Julio Urias).

Both teams obviously have the bulk of the off-season ahead of them to make improvements, but as things stand now, if Greinke were to return to the Dodgers, he’d simply be maintaining the status quo, which could find the Giants closing ground on the Dodgers with the two teams evenly matched. If he signs with the Giants, however, he could tip that balance in San Francisco’s favor and possibly even make the Giants an early World Series favorite.

This past season, the Giants had the best team defense in the NL, per park adjusted defensive efficiency. They outscored the Dodgers by 29 runs on the season and had a significantly better bullpen as well (3.33 relief ERA to Los Angeles’ 3.91). If Greinke were to join Madison Bumgarner at the front of San Francisco's rotation with Jake Peavy, Chris Heston and Matt Cain as the likely back three, it would be difficult to argue that the Giants weren’t the best team in the NL West on the day Greinke signed (and don’t discount how attractive pitching in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark in front of a superior defense and superior bullpen might be to Greinke).

With Price, Greinke and Zimmermann off the market, the Dodgers’ only comparable counter move would be to meet Johnny Cueto’s asking price, which is reportedly near $150 million. That figure is more than 60% more than what our projections believe he is worth—projections that I could not justify adjusting upward given Cueto’s body type (short, heavy) and history of shoulder issues. Cueto is an excellent pitcher and would likely keep the Dodgers competitive in the near term, but Greinke, despite being two years older, is the better investment at that price point because of his consistency and health. Because of that, I would not expect the Giants to spend big on Cueto if they fail to land Greinke. Instead, I’d look for them to move on to the next tier of free-agent starters, one that includes Wei-Yin Chen, Jeff Samardzija and 2015 deadline acquisition Mike Leake. One reason for that is money; the other is that the Giants, having the better overall team, don’t need as big a score in their rotation as the Dodgers do.

Whatever Greinke’s decision, the Dodgers-Giants rivalry seems likely to generate another compelling season as the two teams continue to battle for NL West dominance. If Greinke leaves Los Angeles for San Francisco, however, that battle will not only have even more juice than before but could also find the Giants back on top of the division for the first time since 2012.

 

Buster Olney ✓ ‏@Buster_ESPN 52 minutes ago
Jimmy Rollins drawing interest in the market as a shortstop, or in working in some sort of a hybrid utility role.
11:54 AM — 2 Dec 2015

 

Puig represents Roberts' first challenge as Dodgers manager
by Eric Stephen | True Blue LA — 4 hours ago

LOS ANGELES -- New Dodgers manager Dave Roberts owned the room on Tuesday at the Stadium Club at Dodger Stadium, his first time donning a Dodgers uniform since playing for the team in 2004. The Dodgers are confident they picked the right man, and that he will be able to get the most out of Yasiel Puig, arguably Roberts' biggest challenge.

Of immediate importance for Puig is investigation from Major League Baseball into a bar fight in Miami on Nov. 25, with a potential physical altercation with his sister — as reported by TMZ Sports — potentially triggering MLB's new domestic violence policy. That investigation from MLB, the Dodgers say, is expected to be concluded as early as this week.

Roberts on Tuesday said he reached out to 15 or 16 Dodgers players since being named manager. He left a message for Puig, who was out of the country at the time.

"I have never met him, never said a word to him," Roberts said of Puig. "I'm looking forward to meeting him and looking forward to building that relationship."

Roberts said he plans to visit Clayton Kershaw on Sunday in Dallas, on his way to the winter meetings in Nashville, which begin in earnest on Monday.

Roberts met in person with one other Dodger — Adrian Gonzalez, who also showed up at Roberts' press conference on Tuesday. The two were teammates in 2006 with the Padres, and Gonzalez was still in San Diego in 2010, Roberts' first year as a special assistant to the Padres front office.

Gonzalez thinks Roberts will be able to connect easily with Puig.

"Puig responds well to genuine people, who don't want something from him," Gonzalez said. "Dave is not after his own agenda, he's interested in what's best for Puig and for the team ... If he can get the best of him, the we can get the best for the team."

Puig is also coming off a down season, hitting just .255/.322/.436 with 11 home runs in 79 games. He was sidelined by over a month for injuries to both hamstrings, and also dealt with a thumb blister that affected his swing.

"There are things that happened over the course of this year, mechanically and health-wise, we didn't really get to see [a productive Puig] as much in 2015," president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. "If you look at it from a scouting standpoint, on physical ability and what he can do on a baseball field, everybody in the organization appreciates what that can mean for wins. It's about us creating the right infrastructure to get the most out of all of our players."

There is also the issue of reported discord in the clubhouse surrounding Puig, with Andy Van Slyke — father of Scott — telling a St. Louis radio station that the Dodgers' highest-paid player — Kershaw — told the front office that club would be better off without Puig.

It is unclear when the reported Kershaw conversation took place, but Friedman, while denying reports of Kershaw's suggestion, chalked up any friction to normal locker room relationships.

"Everyone is not going to be best friends. There needs to be a certain respect, and a desire to win," Friedman explained. "Clayton said 'We have the best chance to win the most games with Yasiel Puig in the lineup.' But there are things that happen over the course of eight months when people are trying to win."

Even if trading Puig were on the table, the Dodgers would be dealing him at his low point in value, though he remains an attractive player, turning 25 on Monday, with four years before free agency. Puig has a team-friendly contract, with three years and $19.5 million remaining, though he can opt into salary arbitration as early as next offseason if he so chooses.

Friedman was asked if Puig might be traded this winter.

"Yasiel Puig can be a significant part of future success for the Los Angeles Dodgers," he said.