***Part I will consist of position players and Part II will consist of pitchers This is a thread for addressing our current and future needs. Credit True Blue LA for this link: http://www.truebluela.com/2010/11/30/1840626/dodgers-payroll-worksheet It shows a very clear working of our current payroll and roster up until 2014. There are some issues. 1. While we do have "fuck you" money, I have no doubt that it is not unlimited. At some point, we will be over the luxury tax and be penalized. Now, it could be that Mark and company do not give a shit. On the other hand, they may not want to be adding money that does not improve the team or stadium. The luxury tax for 2013 will be 189 million. The penalty would be 2.475 mil. Not astronomical when one considers that Harriston makes far more than that. Info on Luxury Tax: (It is from wiki so pretty easy to understand) Instead of a salary cap, Major League Baseball implements a luxury tax, an arrangement in which teams whose total payroll exceeds a certain figure (determined annually) are taxed on the excess amount. The tax is paid to the league, which then puts the money into its industry-growth fun. A team that goes over the luxury tax cap for the first time in a five-year period pays a penalty of 22.5% of the amount they were over the cap, second-time violators pay a 30% penalty, and teams that exceed the limit three or more times pay a 40% penalty. The cap limit for 2010 is $170 million, and the cap for 2011 is $178 million. As of the 2009 season, only the Boston Red Sox, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Detroit Tigers, and the New York Yankees have paid any luxury tax; the Yankees have contributed to over 95% ($164.1 million) of tax payments, and have been subject to six of the eleven occasions the tax has been implemented. 2. Not everyone can play the same position. Because FA is FA, what is available is what is available. In other words, if there are 3 premier SPs, there will not be one appear magically. 3. Trades are still made in the offseason. Just because there is not a player available to fill a hole on the FA market does not mean that one could not be acquired via trade. Also worth noting is that the Dodgers do not have a great farm. Kasten has stated that he wants to improve drastically in this area. Therefore, it would seem we must be careful on what we trade. ==================================================================== Please refer to the spreadsheet for complete understanding: Insofar as needs are concerned, next year the following positions are accounted for (barring serious injury): 2nd Base---Mark Ellis With a salary of 5mil., he is our starting 2nd baseman. I think he has performed well and despite his high salary is very capable of adding to the lineup. (5.25 mil) SS--Dee Gordon He has struggled. However, he is incredibly cheap and his tons of upside. If he can learn to be a true leadoff hitter and use his speed to his advantage, he is in a Dodger uniform for the next 8 years. (500k) 3rd Base--Hanley Ramirez His defense is suspect (according to the press) but he can hit and will for the next two years. Also, 2014 is a contract year. If Hanley is prone to sandbagging, I have to assume he will at least play up for that year. (15.5 mil) RF--Andre Ethier (13.5 mil) CF--Matt Kemp (22 mil) As of right now, it seems that our pressing needs are 1st Base, Left Field, and possible catcher. The catcher thing is due to a number of factors. Ellis is scheduled to make 2 mil in arbitration. He has been from great to not so much. Fedex is much cheaper but his bat is suspect. Treanor has a 150K option. To be honest, I have no idea what to do about this one. It would seem almost easier to keep Ellis for one more and allow Treanor and Fedex to share backup responsibilities. However, that takes up another spot on the 25 man roster. My gut says that Fedex spends another year in AAA until an injury. Our bench is probably the most complicated. Rivera has a 500k option. It is pretty cheap for a guy who hits lefties pretty well and can fill in at LF and 1st. Harriston is owed an astounding 3.75 mil. Uribe is owed another 7 mil. Finally, Gwynn is owed 1.75 mil for next year. Here is where it gets strange. We have almost 15 mil owed to 7 bench players for next year (counting Treanor). Kennedy is gone--as is Abreu. Our options here are swapping Uribe for another bad contract or allowing him to stay in a bench role spelling Dee, Ellis, and Hanley. This is a very expensive option. However, he does still have a glove. Cruz is another option. Herrera as well. Both are under team control and should cost very little. Harriston can play almost every position. If I am Ned, I swap Uribe and if I cannot, I keep him as a supersub. Eating that much money will be tough. Obviously, there are also guys like Castellanos, Van Slyke, Sands, and Sellers who are still waiting for their shot. Hell, we almost have a full roster of bench guys. It seems that we will need to trade our minor leaguers or start culling the roster. Ned has definitely put us in a strange position as far as the bench is concerned. ** Minors: The most notable contracts for those in the minors are Puig (still owed 8 mil next year as half of his signing bonus) and Sands (owed 500K). Deferred contracts: Here is where you will hate McCourt. We owe approximately 9.5 mil to Manny, A. Jones, and Kuroda next year. However, in 2014, we are only on the hook for 3.75 mil to A. Jones. Still a ton of money for guys playing for other teams. I really wish that we were able to pay them off this year (when we will be far under Luxury Tax) and not have to worry about them again. In all, we have approximately 149 mil in salary for next season. However, certain players will not be picked. With a Luxury Tax at 189 mil, we have approximately 40 mil before we must be the tax. To give a clear understanding, if the payroll were 200 mil, the luxury tax would be paid on the 11 mil over. Here is a link to the 2013 Free Agent Class: (Please note that it may need to be updated due to recent extensions). http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html Here is a link to the 2014 Free Agent Class: (Please note that a few of the players listed could sign extensions --see Cole Hamels and Joey Votto--dammit) Please give your thoughts on what you see as our needs and the best options for competing. Think long term. If you are interested in me doing a pitching one, please let me know.
24 people looked at it and not one commented. I personally think this is helpful. It gives us an idea of where we are going. I am just saying.
Like I said in the other thread, my personal favorites in this FA class are Micheal Bourn and Melky Cabrera as LF/RF top of the order hitters. As well as Josh Hamilton, but at no more than 6/160 with vesting options for 7th and 8th years based on PAs. For SPs, obviously Greinke, but also Shaun Marcum.
I am quite down with Marcum. The most frustrating part about the Dodgers is that our homegrown players rarely grow into what WE project them to be. SVS, Sands, Young, Laroche, Loney, Miller, Elbert, et al. I love Logan to death and think he drafts the shit out of arms. He, however, has serious fucking issues with grabbing premier bats.
IMO, the ONLY pressing need is this... Our current roster has to play like they are capable of playing. This means everyone. We can take this team into next year easily if everyone just matches their career numbers and plays like a team. Obviously 1B will be addressed and every other hole we have is really a minor move away from being solved. We are now at the point that this team just needs to play baseball the right way.
