MINOR LEAGUE/PROSPECTS Thread

The team signed another 16 year old pitching prospect out of Mexico, Oscar Arzaga. Don't know much about him, but a couple of the folks that had seen him said this kid could be another huge get. Fastball already sitting 93-95 and a Perfect Game score of 10.0 where he has been turning some heads(I have no idea what that means).

 

BA like Cody,
Dan Kennedy (San Francisco): Our league's site ("DankeeAcme") maintains a list of the various prospect rankings lists and notes each site's outlier ranking. Cody Bellinger (#54) certainly ranks as BA's. He didn't even appear in 7 of the other 9 lists. How much internal disagreement was there on his ranking? Did a few really rank him high? His stats weren't all that impressive.
John Manuel: JJ touched on Bellinger but I don’t know what the other sites are missing. (Nine? Really, 9? I guarantee you that’s too many.) Stats aren’t impressive? He was 20, hit 30 homers … according to Matt Eddy’s computation, Bellinger had a 137 OPS+, 14th among Top 100 players (not counting Andrew Benintendi, who ranked first in OPS+ but had just 86 full-season plate appearances) in 2015. He also is athletic enough to play CF, he’s a potentially premium defender at 1B (better than Dom Smith) … The only caveat with Bellinger is the K rate, which was high at 27.6. But it seems like the prospect community loves Ryan McMahon, and he had the exact same K rate as Bellinger; we don’t have any questions saying, “Why’d you rank McMahon?” Bellinger was a pretty consensus guy for us; we all had him in our Top 70s.

 

http://m.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article/164639240/rick-knapp-discusses-dodgers-young-pitchers

Interesting read.

 

Keef Law

Organization ranking: 2
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Dodgers prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock have taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main top 100 list for 2017.

A few quick notes: (1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and (2) if the prospect is in my top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.

Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.

Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Corey Seager, SS (1)

2. Julio Urias, LHP (5)

3. Alex Verdugo, OF (51)

4. Jose De Leon, RHP (60)

5. Grant Holmes, RHP (71)

6. Yusnier Diaz, OF (77)

7. Cody Bellinger, 1B/CF (92)

8. Austin Barnes, C/2B

9. Omar Estevez, 2B/3B

10. Frankie Montas, RHP

Overview
Austin Barnes was a tough omission from the top 100 as a catcher who receives and frames really well, who gets on base at a high clip (.393 career OBP in full-season leagues), and who has maybe average power. He's already 26 years old and has never caught 80 games in a season, so while he has a high floor and is too good to be rated just as a backup, it's a stretch to rate him as a full-time catcher; he could end up being a catcher/utility infielder who's on the roster for his bat as much as his glove. Another Cuban outfielder signed along with Yusnier Diaz is Omar Estevez, a polished hitter with a compact swing who stays inside the ball well and lets it travel on him. Estevez lacks Diaz's upside or projectability, but he has a bat that should be ready for the majors pretty quickly. He'll also need to find a position but should be capable at second.

Frankie Montas can throw 101 mph in relief, mid-90s as a starter, but has below-average command, a rough delivery and a history of knee problems (he's a big guy); I think he has to end up in the bullpen and even there is going to have to improve his command of the fastball. Second baseman Micah Johnson (11) was a top-10 prospect in the White Sox's system, acquired with Montas in the three-team deal that sent Todd Frazier to the south side. Johnson is a fleet-footed infielder with a short swing and some upper-body strength, although he's been pretty inconsistent on defense at second and could end up in the outfield. They also picked up Trayce Thompson (14), at least a good fourth outfielder who's a plus defender in center and has plus raw power. He did cut down on his whiffs last year, shortening his swing a little and tightening up his plate discipline just enough where you think he might end up a regular.

Cuban right-hander Yadier Alvarez (12), signed over the summer for $16 million, is an easy 97-98 mph with a wipeout slider, repeating his delivery well … and still hasn't pitched in the U.S. because of visa issues. I hear he's good, though.Willie Calhoun (13), the team's fourth-round pick in 2015, is iffy at second base but has always hit, and shows more power than you'd expect from a 5-foot-9 kid. Even if he ends up in left he'll probably hit his way to some kind of major-league role, and he could be a star if he ever learns to play average defense at the keystone. Right-hander Yasiel Sierra (15), another Cuban who just signed this offseason, has plus sink at 93-94 mph, a reliever profile now but physical enough and with a clean enough delivery that he could develop into a starter.

Jharel Cotton (16) throws 92-95 mph with a plus changeup that has huge tumble to it, with a cutter as his third pitch; it's a third-base side, short stride, slight cutoff delivery that will probably force him to the bullpen but with big upside there because of the two plus pitches. Right-hander Walker Buehler(17) was the Dodgers' first-round pick in 2015 but his post-draft physical revealed a torn elbow ligament and he will be out until midsummer after Tommy John surgery. Chase Dejong (18), added from Toronto in a midseason deal for international slot money (ha!), is a command right-hander who'll show three average pitches and has missed bats in A-ball but doesn't have the weapon to keep that going into Double- or Triple-A.

2016 impact
Thompson could make the club as the fourth outfielder; Barnes could make it as the kind of bench bat/backup catcher I described above.

The fallen
Zach Lee was a projectable, super-athletic right-hander who turned down a scholarship to play quarterback at LSU (or, to carry a clipboard for a year or two and then play quarterback) when he signed with the Dodgers, but his delivery got shorter and his fastball went backward rather than forward. He can still fill up the strike zone but doesn't have anything now that will miss many major-league bats. Their 2013 first-rounder, right-hander Chris Anderson, has been even worse, walking way too many batters and no longer missing bats in Double-A, and almost certainly has to go to the pen, where he might start hitting the upper 90s at least.

Sleeper
Scouts described Alvarez to me as someone who might belong in the top 20 prospects in the game, assuming he is what he was in workouts and actually comes to pitch in the U.S. at some point.

 

http://www.theprospectpipeline.com/oscar-arzaga-dodgers-scouting-report-profile
https://www.reddit.com/r/Dodgers/comments/45zk6l/dodgers_have_signed_oscar_arzaga_16_yo_latin/

No pressure kid, given that the Dodgers also have the best pitching prospect out of Mexico since Fernando.

 

More on Arzaga:

http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/02/18/dodgers-sign-rhp-oscar-arzaga-without-much-fanfare/

Says he probably would have been a top 2 round pick in next years draft, so probably a 7-figure bonus.

 

'bout damned time...


... now about those long overdue Rings...

 

Eric Stephen ‏@truebluela 2h2 hours ago
Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi said Cuban signees Yadier Alvarez, Yusniel Diaz & Omar Estevez will all be in U.S. at some pt in '16, possibly in ST
-----------------------
Wouldn't be shocked if we see Alvarez and Diaz in full-season ball this year as they are getting close to 20, both figure to at least see short-season Ogden or AZL. Those seasons start in late June.

 

Ok, now that Gallardo & Fowler deals appear to be done, Desmond is the only QO FA left, the Dodgers will have picks #21, 31, 36, 64, 101, 131, 161, 191, 221, 251, 281 and 311, the total value is approximately $9.35M

It shouldn't change much no matter what Desmond does.

 

http://www.truebluela.com/2016/2/28/11124814/2016-mlb-draft-dodgers-bonus-pool

Ok, so now that Desmond has signed, the order is set. The above link breaks it all down, including the 4.99% cushion, they will have about $9.8M to spend.

 

Again the FO doing a great job of getting bonus pool money along with the already stated stockpiling of picks. Let's hope they can get 2 of those picks right unlike the last time this happened!!

 

Update from Badler on the Cuban market, the Dodgers are linked to Ruiz, Gutierrez and Lazarito. The Padres are seen as the favorites to sign a few of the guys on the list, while the rest aren't linked to anyone as of now.

1. Yulieski Gurriel, 3b/2b

Gurriel should immediately be an above-average player either at third base (his primary position) or second base, where he also has experience, but he’s still far from being eligible to sign. Based on the precedent of the most recent Cuban players obtaining their residency in a foreign country and then applying for free agency from Major League Baseball, it has typically been at least six months before they get cleared to sign. I wouldn’t expect Gurriel to sign until the end of the season at the earliest, although being a high-profile player, who knows whether someone might find a way to get his timetable expedited.

2. Jose Fernandez, 2b/3b

Fernandez left Cuba around early December, so using the rough six-month timetable as an estimate, I would bet he becomes cleared to sign around the all-star break. As a 27-year-old lefthanded hitter with excellent contact skills and plate discipline, Fernandez could be a key upgrade for a contender in the second half that won’t cost a team prospects like a trade would. Or he could fill a hole for a non-contender simply looking to upgrade at second base, his primary position, though he does have experience at third as well.

While many Cuban players who leave the island suddenly pack on an incredible amount of muscle in a short window of time, Fernandez appears to have gone through a rapid weight loss since he arrived in the Dominican Republic. Fernandez’s thickening lower half and declining range had been a concern (as is the fact that the last time he played in Cuba was October 2014), so that will be something scouts will watch closely once he has his first open showcase and starts doing private workouts.

3. Lourdes Gurriel, ss/3b/of

Gurriel should be on a similar timetable to his older brother in terms of when he will get cleared to sign, but he won’t officially sign his contract until October. That’s when he turns 23, which will make him exempt from the international bonus pools. Not only will that enable Gurriel to sign a major league contract and not have the commissioner’s office essentially taking half of his contract because of the overage tax on the pools, but it means he will be able to sign with all 30 teams, even the ones in the penalty box for pool-eligible players. Gurriel’s most recent experience has been in the outfield, but I expect him to showcase at shortstop and third base, since I think he can stay in the infield.

4. Jorge Ona, of

Ona is still not a free agent, though when MLB finally does clear him, the Padres are the favorites to land him and would wait until July 2 do to so. Ona, 19, demolished the COPABE 18U Pan American Championship in Mexico in 2014, showing a compact righthanded swing with good bat speed, above-average power and arm strength that should fit well in right field.

5. Norge Ruiz, rhp

Ruiz had been training in the Dominican Republic and even had an open showcase there that Cubs president Theo Epstein attended, but he’s now in the Bahamas, where he has his residency and is waiting for MLB to make him a free agent. Ruiz isn’t that big (5-foot-10, 195 pounds), but he’s athletic, has average to plus stuff across the board and excellent feel for pitching for someone who turns 22 next month. The Cubs and Dodgers have been linked to Ruiz.

6. Randy Arozarena, ss

Arozarena is a free agent who’s in the process of deciding whether to sign immediately or wait to sign with a team that will go over its pool on July 2. Training in Mexico, Arozarena is a 21-year-old with a sound, quick righthanded swing that stays in the hitting zone. He makes frequent contact, uses the whole field, can hit breaking pitches, recognizes balls and strikes and is a plus runner. He has played the infield and outfield in Cuba, though he has showcased at shortstop.

7. Vladimir Gutierrez, rhp

The 20-year-old Gutierrez was one of my favorite pitchers in Cuba, where he pitched well at a young age, had a projectable 6-foot-3, 170-pound frame, an 88-93 mph fastball that projected to reach at least into the mid-90s once he filled out along with a plus curveball.

Yet Gutierrez, who left Cuba a little more than a year ago and became a free agent last summer, is still unsigned. Part of that is because he simply hasn’t looked right during his workouts for clubs while training in Florida. His mechanics have been off and his fastball velocity not only wasn’t increasing, it had gone backwards at times. He has switched agents multiple times, going from Octagon and then to Bart Hernandez, who was recently indicted for trafficking Cuban players. Now Gutierrez has changed agents again, joining The Legacy Agency.

Teams are expecting a showcase for him in the Miami area within the next few weeks, one they’re eager to see given talk that he may be back to his previous form or better. The Cubs, Dodgers and Giants have all been linked to Gutierrez.

8. Luis Yander La O, 3b/2b/ss

Bart Hernandez had been La O’s agent, but Hernandez was indicted for trafficking Cuban players. Then center fielder Guillermo Heredia, also represented by Hernandez, signed a contract for a reported $550,000 with the Mariners, a terrific bargain for Seattle even with the questions on Heredia’s bat. Now La O left Hernandez and is being represented by The Legacy Agency.

La O is a free agent exempt from the bonus pools, but his open showcase in Florida last month with Heredia didn’t go well, with bad weather and uninspiring showings from both players. So while La O could sign right now, he might have another showcase to give teams a more positive look at his skill set.

9. Yadiel Hernandez, of

Hernandez is a 28-year-old, lefthanded corner outfielder who hit .369/.509/.535 in 80 games inSerie Nacional in 2014-15, good for second in the league in batting average, OBP and walks (77) while striking out 44 times. Hernandez had his first open showcase in Mexico City on Feb. 23, with private workouts coming next. He has his residency in Mexico and is now waiting for MLB to declare him a free agent. Given MLB’s timetable with other Cuban players, he might get cleared to sign some time around Opening Day, then sign and join a team early in the 2016 season.

10. Adrian Morejon, lhp

Morejon just turned 17 last week, so while he’s very much a long-range projection, his talent level for his age is extremely high. Morejon was the MVP at the 15U World Cup in Mexico in 2014 and has only improved since then, with a fastball that sits in the low-90s and the potential for two above-average secondary pitches in his curveball and changeup. He has a smooth delivery and advanced feel for pitching, especially relative to the typical pitchers his age in the international free agent market. Morejon is the same age as Lazaro Armenteros, and the scouts I have asked have all preferred Morejon. He’s still not a free agent yet, but he is likely to wait to sign until July 2 anyway because the Padres are the favorites to land him.

11. Lazaro Armenteros, of

Armenteros has been the subject of some of the most extreme sensationalism in public reports, but he is among the more talented players in his age group on the international market. Armenteros is the same age as the top July 2 prospects who signed last year, and his talent level is right up there with the top players in the class, where the No. 1 ranked player, Blue Jays outfielder/third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed for $3.9 million.

He has a promising combination of size (6-foot-1, 205 pounds), athleticism, above-average speed and power, most likely fitting as a corner outfielder, which is where he played in Cuba. He has a good track record of hitting in Cuba’s 15U national league and on their 15U youth national team, though it’s an unorthodox righthanded swing that has gotten even more uphill since he arrived in the Dominican Republic, perhaps in an attempt to try to show his power more in showcases.

After becoming a free agent, Armenteros has switched agents from Charles Hairston to Octagon. The Padres are now the favorites to sign Armenteros, though the Braves and Dodgers have also been connected to him as well.

12. Alfredo Rodriguez, ss

Since November, the Reds have been linked to Rodriguez as the heavy favorites to sign him. On the day Rodriguez was declared a free agent in January, MLB.com reported that he had a $6 million agreement to sign with the Reds. Multiple sources confirmed that report, saying that Rodriguez would be signing with the Reds during the current 2015-16 signing period rather than waiting until July 2 to sign. That would have been a costly price for the Reds to pay, not only because of Rodriguez’s suspect bat but because the Reds would be limited to signings of no more than $300,000 beginning July 2 when they have the second-biggest international bonus pool.

Now it appears the Reds have changed course and will instead convince Rodriguez to wait until July 2 to officially sign his contract, putting him under the 2016-17 pools and allowing them to have a full year to attack the international market. In exchange for waiting, the Reds might end up paying Rodriguez an even higher bonus.

13. Ronald Bolanos, rhp

Bart Hernandez, who has already lost Gutierrez and La O as clients, is the agent for Bolanos, so what’s going to happen next with Bolanos isn’t clear. Bolanos is one of the more promising pool-eligible pitchers though. In Cuba, Bolanos came up through the junior leagues as an outfielder, but he moved to the mound full-time in 2014 and made a quick transition, pitching in the COPABE 18U Pan American Championship that summer where he threw nine scoreless innings with a team-high 15 strikeouts and six walks. At the time, his fastball ranged from 88-93 mph while flashing an above-average though inconsistent slider. Since then, his fastball has increased to sitting consistently in the low-90s and reaching 95 mph.

14. Jonatan Machado, of

Machado is a free agent, though it appears likely that he will wait until July 2 and then sign with the Cardinals, presuming the Cardinals aren’t prevented from doing so as a result of any possible penalties from the commissioner’s office stemming from former scouting director Chris Correa pleading guilty to hacking the Astros’ information systems. Machado has a small frame at 5-foot-9, 160 pounds and there’s an arm bar that adds length to his lefthanded swing, but he seldom swings and misses and has excellent speed to play in center field.

15. Cionel Perez, lhp

Perez, 19, was in the Dominican Republic, but he is now training in the Bahamas with Norge Ruiz waiting for MLB to make him a free agent. In Cuba, Perez was one of the better starting pitchers in Serie Nacional, posting a 2.06 ERA with a 75-32 K-BB mark in 87 1/3 innings during the 2014-15 season. He was an athletic but small-framed lefty with a lively low-90s fastball that could touch 94 mph and a slurvy breaking stuff, so I think he would be a better fit in the bullpen, though there are scouts who like him more because of his athleticism, arm speed and belief that his secondary pitches will progress.

 

Padres the favorite for Lazarito?
Maaan, funk that

 

Bill PlunkettVerified account‏@billplunkettocr
3 of the #Dodgers young Cuban investments -- RHP Yadier Alvarez, OF Yusniel Diaz, IF Omar Estevez - were in minor-league camp today