DODGERS Month in Review: April

Cool Doyer. You're pretty good

 

FIP is what a pitcher's ERA would be as projected on what he/they have done so far?
I realize I'm a ancient dinosaur non-SABR guy, but are they fucking kidding me with this ? This stat is proving to be an accurate gauge?

 

FIP is Fielder Independent Pitching. It only accounts for HR, BB, and K's - results where fielders aren't involved.

Since the Dodgers starters were 4th best in K's and 3rd best in BB, the most likely reason for a high FIP was a high number of HR's allowed. IMO, it's ok to look at FIP in context with additional stats, but FIP on it's own doesn't paint a whole picture.

 

...thank you

 

The biggest thing wrong with FIP is that it ducks the pitchers responsibility for all of the batted balls touching fielders mitts in the first place.

Imagine to yourself saying "OK pretend that there were no fielders and that anything that touches a fielder doesn't count. OK "NOW" what is the pitchers stat line? " Who is going to ascribe what level of competency to imagining there to be no fielders? Why do Saber geeks froth over this stat? WHIP is a far better ruler of talent, as is ERA.

FIP = statistician masturbation

 

I'm not mad and it IS newish still but I can still prefer ERA for its own reasons

ERA cares not only about how many runs were scored but also if a fielder makes an error behind a pitcher by using earned runs rather than runs.

We don't yet have some nonsense stat "Pitcher was backed by a 7.4 defense". Yet.


now look what I've started...

 

Agreed. It seems that the stat of relievers who allow someone else's runner to score is roughly 98%

 

Actually, it's the opposite. It points out with undeniable certainty those things that are SOLELY the responsibility of the pitcher. It's not meant to relieve them of the responsibility of balls in play, it's meant to show what the pitcher-AND ONLY THE PITCHER-should be held accountable for.

WHIP is a far better ruler of talent, as is ERA.

I'm going to disagree with that for one simple reason, both of those can be influenced by the official scorer-who isn't even part of the game. We've all seen balls in play that were given a favorable ruling by the official scorer of the home team. It may not happen all that often, but it happens. Whether a play is a hit or an error is sometimes a judgement call by a biased observer and therefore can have an affect on both WHIP and ERA.

Anywho, Cappy, maybe you should try to think about it as a measure of what the pitcher can be blamed for instead of what is being excused.

 

:farhan:

 

The only stat that matters is a W.

 

Dodge,

Thanks for the breakdown.. the real discussion is of what value this stat can have when a ball batted over a wall matters but a ball batted to the top of the wall does not. Folly. I get the separation of the teammates fielding % from pitchers equation, that part is fine. I've long stated that anytime a pitcher gives up back to back doubles to the alley that he's toast. Statistics bear that out. Same with 3 hits in a row single or doubles. 3 hits in a row mean that batters are timing him good and he's done. However in all of these scenes the rubber armed pitcher involved fielders so FIP shows nothing. Folly. So much for FIP.

Re: WHIP and ERA, yes they are totally biased by the official scorekeeper. Not much can be done yet. So are balls and strikes until cameras take over plate duty in a few years. Until then WHIP and ERA are about the best I've seen. All of the WAR variations inject some sort of semi arbitrary variable numeric which means shinola as well as an arbitrary fielding %. A good attempt at discerning talent but not quite rigorous enough from a 'pure' scientific methodology perspective. Whatever.

So I guess we can agree that WHIP and ERA have scorekeeper issues but still bear witness to talent as they document a pitchers 'yield' and likewise WAR variations include aspects of arbitrary defensive fielding judgments and mathematical variables chicanery but, it too, still loosely gels to reveal talent.

Each with issues but the best we have today from a stat geek perspective

 

Okie dokie, but I don't much like dWAR, as a matter of fact, I don't think there is a defensive metric that isn't biased by judgement calls. When I think of WAR it is purely oWAR, and I think it is a good yardstick of offensive talent. I do not dislike WHIP and ERA, I just think you need to look at them along with FIP to paint the true picture. I've said on several occasions, there is NO stand alone stat. Various stats used together are needed to make a reasonable judgement.

 

It sounds like you use the Codge Reasonable Judgement Linear Regression Algorithm:

CRJ = 1*WHIP + 0.7*ERA +1.5*FIP + 3*oWAR + 1.9*CodgeDefensiveEyeTest - 100*KOUFAX0000Factor

 

Actually, you have the factors mis-aligned. the WHIP is x 0.7 and the ERA is x 1. Teh CDET is more like 3.48 while teh Koufax0000Factor is x(-100+100), so the KF has much the same bearing on the outcome as he does in real life.

I would have thought a smart guy like you would have seen that.