Starting Pitching Mediocrity

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by Shaw, May 21, 2016.

  1. Shaw

    Shaw DSP Legend

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    Starting Pitching
    Disclaimer: I'm only going to be using fWAR, ERA and FIP. Otherwise, this would take too much time.

    We all know Kershaw is the best pitcher in the NL. He alone has a 3.5 fWAR, 1.67 ERA and 1.35 FIP.

    The other starting pitchers are another story. They have a combined 1.7 fWAR (Kazmir's is actually negative), 4.34 ERA and 4.36 FIP. Comparing those numbers to other teams is kind of useless. After all, every team has a pitcher on their team who leads in fWAR ("best pitcher") (yes, I realize this is an imperfect measurement). So how do the Dodgers's SPers stack up against the rest of the league without their best pitchers?

    First, here are the teams and their best pitchers:
    • Cubs: Arrieta
    • Mets: Syndergaard
    • Nationals: Strasburg
    • Giants: Cueto
    • Phillies: Velasquez
    • Rockies: Gray
    • Cardinals: Garcia
    • Marlins: Fernandez
    • Padres: Pomeranz
    • Braves: Teheran
    • Diamondbacks: Greinke
    • Brewers: Guerra
    • Pittsburgh: Cole
    • Reds: Iglesias
    Let's start with ERA since it's something we're all familiar with:

    [​IMG]

    Doesn't look too bad does it? With Kershaw we're the fourth best team in the NL, and without him we're the 6th.

    Dig a little deeper and things aren't quite as rosy (note that I didn't recalculate the values based on complete raw data, I just took the average ERA numbers for each team):

    ERA mean (total) = 4.094; STD = 0.829929; Dodgers value = 3.62; z-score = .57113 (71st percentile)
    ERA mean (no #1) = 4.43; STD = 0.8045; Dodgers value = 4.34; z-score = .1127 (54th percentile)

    So, we look like a fairly middle-of-the-road team with our ERA sans Kershaw.

    But we all know the limitation of ERA:

    Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing.

    So what about FIP?

    [​IMG]
    Things don't look quite as good. Even with Kershaw we're only 6th, and without him we're 9th. If we look at the z-scores for the data, then it's clear that we have a below average pitching staff:

    FIP mean (total) = 3.94; STD = 0.728947; Dodgers value = 3.55; z-score = .53868 (70th percentile)
    FIP mean (no #1) = 4.27; STD = 0.776112; Dodgers value = 4.36; z-score = -.1168 (46th percentile)

    fWAR is based on FIP, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that the values are similar to FIP.

    [​IMG]

    We're 6th with Kershaw and 8th without. In fact, our percentile rank is actually slightly lower in this calculation:

    fWAR mean (total) = 3.33; STD = 2.144317; Dodgers value = 5.1; z-score = 0.823883 (80th percentile)
    fWAR mean (no #1) = 1.9; STD = 1.627443; Dodgers value = 1.7; z-score = -0.12289 (45th percentile)

    I think this analysis simply confirms what we know, but it's interesting to put some data behind the "eye-test." That is, our starting pitching staff (without its best pitcher), as it currently stands, is worse than the median pitching staff (without its best pitcher) in the NL. That's not a formula for success.
     
  2. darth550

    darth550 Baba Yaga

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    Nerd genius, put in their terms.

    Pie in their face in mine.

    Headed to the NL West cellar to the rest of the world.
     
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  3. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo DSP Legend

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    Great post Shaw...kudos on this.
    Whatever way it is viewed, we are in a nosedive, pulling lots of Gs...,Idk if Donnie Roberts is the pilot to pull us out of it. May just have to wait for the fickle finger of fate to get tired with our sorry asses, and go after someone else...could be a long wait though.
    How we looking for the Cubs and Mets right about now?
     
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  4. fsudog21

    fsudog21 DSP Legend

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    There is no pilot to pull this group out of it. Roberts was dealt a 2-3 and the dealer has a 10.
     
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  5. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo DSP Legend

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    Hit me.
     
  6. fsudog21

    fsudog21 DSP Legend

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    DR would get another deuce, then a 10.

    Nothing like sitting on 17 with the dealer holding 10.
     
  7. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo DSP Legend

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    ...and Guggs doesn't care...he owns the casino.
    House always wins.
     
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  8. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo DSP Legend

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    Need "X-1 Chuck" Yeager...or his grandson(?) Steve...maybe they can pull back on the stick.
     
  9. fsudog21

    fsudog21 DSP Legend

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  10. THINKBLUE

    THINKBLUE DSP Gigolo

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    Yeah, it's bad. Only 2 guys on the staff we can truly rely on. To say pitching isn't a problem is naive. Yes, the staff ERA is good. But it's helped immensely by Kershaw and Kenley, who are not-so coincidentally the only two pitchers we can actually rely on to consistently get outs. Last year, it was basically a 3 man staff. Now it's two. Sure there is some promise with certain guys in the BP and rotation, but none who are consistent. And it shows in the results. When Kershaw and Kenley don't pitch, we lose.

    The offense is horrid and just as big of a problem as well. But can't ignore how bad this tape and glue pitching staff is.
     
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  11. Doughty8

    Doughty8 DSP Legend

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    Great incisive post BUT until we get all the guys back that we should have in the rotation it's hard to gauge. Maybe we can do this analysis for the Gnats as a comparison? Not me though lol!!!
     
  12. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    agreed
    throwing wood/kazmir/bolsinger in back-to-back-to-back games against the cubs is fucken pathetic
    not one of those ckunts has an era under 4
    wouldn't be surprised if none of those scrubs make it to the 5th inning
     
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  13. Shaw

    Shaw DSP Legend

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    Definitely true - I think that's part of what TB meant by the "tape and glue" pitching staff as well.

    And there clearly are some question marks surrounding the reinforcements. Will Ryu be as effective as before his injury? If not, how good will he be? etc.
     
  14. fsudog21

    fsudog21 DSP Legend

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    Plugging in the rehabbing trio of Anderson, McCarthy and Ryu is hardly awe inspiring either.
     
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  15. LAdiablo

    LAdiablo descarado

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    bottom line for me is that the giants are looking for all intents and purpose like they will run away and hide this year
    they spent for two of the top tier pitchers that were available last year
    we were promised we would immediately compete for a world series and they fill out the rotation with guys w injuries and questionable health
    throw in depending on puig, pederson, turner (coming off injury) an aging agon and utley (thank god for him) to produce 5+ runs a game and its off the rails
    at least the bp appears to be stabilizing somewhat
    but this rotation was assembled to be exactly what it is
    middle of the road and if it isn't addressed i'm going into a mccourt style boycott mode
     
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  16. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo DSP Legend

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    The Truth shall set ye free.
     
  17. darth550

    darth550 Baba Yaga

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    I'm already there. Why drive, park and pay to watch this shit team lose? Ill go for E a few times this summer but thats it.
     
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  18. Gebbeth

    Gebbeth DSP Legend

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    If the Nerds were thinking to go all Moneyball on the SP, getting multiple lower priced talent in the hopes of piecing together 1 good SP like a Lego piece hybrid, they must have got their equations wrong or backwards. SP maybe the only area of the game where Moneyball doesn't work.

    And to think money was the only issue with owners who supposedly have no issues with money.
     
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  19. CapnTreee

    CapnTreee Guest

    :this:
     
  20. carolinabluedodger

    carolinabluedodger DSP Legend

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    Not trying to start any thing, but could you imagine the calamity in here if we had retained Grienke, and he and Kershaw hit the DL at the same time? The Suicide Hotline would be jammed.
     
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