It appears that "the trade"--as it will surely be known from here on out--has met with mixed results. There are those in the baseball industry on both sides. On one is the group that believes that we gave up too much and received too little in return. Also, on this side are those that think we are spending ourselves into oblivion with no thought to the future. Further within this group are individuals who believe that we have hurt our future by sending over Webster and RDR. Then you have the other side. This side believes that this move propels the Dodgers into the team of video games and perennial playoff contender. They see this move as one for the next three years. They believe that in one fell swoop Ned has solved a plethora of issues that have dogged the Dodgers for a decade. In order to fairly assess the trade, it must be looked upon both with this year and the next four in mind. Let's do that now. I recently wrote an article titled "pressing needs". Shameless plug. In this article, I addressed what I believed were our biggest issues both next year and the years thereafter. In this article, I believe (and yes I am pretty vain) that I made salient points. However, I did make one mistake. I believed that despite heavy pockets, this new ownership group would be reticent to move past the Luxury Tax imposed by MLB. I was wrong. They seem content to pay their check to the Pirates' Ownership while continuing their shopping. Compared to our last owner, this is almost laughable. Okay, it is gut-wrenching funny. So, let's examine what we received. We received AGon, Crawford, Beckett, and Punto. Obviously, A. Gon was the key to the trade. Realistically, you do not offer to take on the salary of a plus 5 ERA pitcher who is making 17 a year, an outfielder who has struggled for two years and is currently on the DL with Tommy John surgery that makes over 20 mil a year. Ironically, Punto is the only person (outside of AGon) with a decent contract. So is AGon affordable? In short, quite. Compare him to the other premier first baseman in the league. He is 30. He is making less than the other premier first baseman is younger than two. He has hit in Petco. We all know how difficult that is. He plays great defense. He is humble and gracious. He is recognized as a good teammate and seems to appreciate what he is being paid to do. What about Carl Crawford? Is he worth that contract. No. Compared to other hitters of his caliber and expertise, he should be making in the 14-16 million a year range. He is making north of 20. As such, we are overpaying. But, what are we overpaying for? We are overpaying for a player that entered into a contract and then underperformed and was oft injured. There is a caveat. He has not been used correctly. He will always be overpaid. He will never equal the amount of that contract. But, as a leadoff or two hole hitter, he would be great. He, at one time, had speed. His injury may help or hurt his arm. Some come back from TJ and throw much harder and with more accuracy. Some seem to lose a beat. But, the year off does allow his legs to get completely healthy. It also allows him to work on those things that plagued him while in Boston. Fenway has horrid dimensions. Learning LF is a pain and not easy. Chavez is more like what he was used to with the Rays. His routes will be smoother and with Kemp beside him, he will return to GG defensive form. Further, with Lopes working with him to regain his legs, he should return to being a good base stealer atop the lineup. Finally, compare his contract to that of Soriano. No, he does not have Soriano power but he still has tools that Soriano has lost over the years. We needed another bat for the top of the order. Look at the free agent market. Place Crawford in there and consider the needs that he fills. It works. It is just expensive. One last thing on this outfield situation. We have two apparent gems in the minors. Puig and Pederson. Both need seasoning. Neither are ready. By having a veteranish outfield we are allowing both to hit the majors actually ready rather than having to rely on them early. We also get a chance to see their true potential rather than what we perceive them to be based on hyped expectations. We do this far too often. Let's talk Josh Beckett. We have acquired a 32 year old pitcher who currently has an ERA above 5. This is horrid. However, he has done this once before and managed a 2.89 the following year. Is on the decline? Perhaps. But, consider the league differential. He pitched at Fenway for most his career. He is moving to the NL West with Chavez, Petco, and AT&T. This guy is money in the playoffs. This guy knows what winning is about. Chances are the number would have been overlooked in Boston. He would have still been a guy who was struggling but could return to form. Instead, his numbers coupled with his attitude made him Person Non Grata number 1. His attitude is bad. Let's be real here. His contract extends two years past this one. He seems like a guy who enjoys a good fight. This might be a match made in heaven or it could be mediocre at best. His first start for us is against CO @ CO. This could be just the test he needs to see how committed he is. The Beckett story may be interesting in a number of ways. He could revert back to form and make us look great or he could terrible and make us pine for RDR much faster. Punto is what he is. He is a backup middle infielder (which apparently we like to collect even now) who can handle all three positions on the left side. He goes on tears where he gets on base well but will never show power. Kennedy is as good as gone. Uribe looks to be shown the door at season's end. We have no real 3rd base option right. Cruz is doing a great job but many of us are wondering how real this is. With Dee returning soon and Ellis earning playing time for next year, you have to think he Punto remains the backup guy until we can figure out how to solve 3rd permanently. With the acquisition of AGon and Crawford, we can live with a light hitting 3rd baseman. What this comes down to is this: what were we expecting in the offfseaon? In the offseason we were hoping to grab two bats and a pitcher. Our options were terribly limited. In Hamilton we got a guy who can hit but has issues and would cost an 8 year contract over 200 million. In Napoli you get a guy who may be able to hit outside of Texas but with less power. He also prefers to catch. In Swisher you get a guy who has done well but expects an Ethier or Werth type contract. Pitching wise there is Greinke and then a plethora of upper middle to lower middle tier pitchers. The most interesting pitcher is Marcum with Losche a distant second. So instead of walking into the offseason hoping we can find a first baseman who can hit from an overpriced group that need converting--we have AGon. Instead of overspending on Victorino (who may be declining quickly) or Swisher, we have Crawford. While he is overpaid, he could turn out to be an actual bat that we can count on. Now, we are looking for one legit pitcher. ONE. And here is the kicker: they will want to play of us. We have proven that money is not going to stop us from winning. We will not be beaten because someone has deeper pockets. We want to win. Every player in the MLB now knows this. Most of them are competitive as hell and know a winner when they see one. Look at the guys wanting to be Yankees a few years back. We have set a precedence. We just spent 250 million dollars to get a first baseman, an outfielder, a pitcher, and the best public relations money can buy. We just fired a shot across the bow to every other team in MLB.
Go to PSD and rape those A-holes for talking shit on this deal. Tuborg needs to go over there too. And IBB, don't "like" the post as if you read it.
After reading some of the shit being said by fans around the league, I think we have finally managed to be taken seriously.
Great post... But only one error... We DO have a long term solution at 3B base called Hanley!!! He still has 2 years on his contract... We are actually miving into the offseason needing nothing, absolutely nothing... We can fill a really good 25 roster without a single move, and with spare parts!!!! Lineup (8) Crawford Ellis Kemp AGone Hanley Ethier Ellis Ellis Bench (5) Treanor - C Haiston - OF, 2B, 3B Punto - middle IF Rivera (dont pick up his option and bring him back for $1M or something like that) - 1B, OF, PH Cruz We even have Uribe for spare if they want a fatty to hit in the clubhouse... Rotation (5) CK Bills Beckett Cappy Herman Monster/Lilly BP (7) Jansen Beli Gurrier Guerra Tollerson Elbert Hawksworth Our farm system has a full year to polish those prospects when some spots open in 2014. For now, we are set and dealing!!!
I see you want to sign AJs brother Dwight. Good call. JK. Seriously, I totally forgot about Guerrier and Hawksworth. We also need someone who can play CF when Kemp gets a day off or kicked out of a game. Do not even suggest Tony Gwynn,
Mark Ellis is on a 2 year deal, as is Hairston, Cappy and Herman Monster. As for that CF to give Kemp a day off, what about our everyday LF??? Crawford can handle CF with no problem, so we only need corner OF bench... I dnt even have a problem having VanSlyke or Herrera coming off the bench... Really, the only openings we might have are in the bp, and not too many...
What has been annoying to me in the aftermath is that the critics bring up the salaries and the deals as being overpaid but we didn't negotiate those we traded for them so don't blame us for taking them on. Now if we signed those guys via free agency then yeah it's questionable. Being hated for the good reasons are much more enjoyable than being ridiculed for the past.
Reality is that those salaries wont be absurd with a thin FA group as this year will be... In total maybe we overpaid $10M for Beckett... CC judge is still out as he has been injured and Adrian would get that kind of miney if he was a FA this year... Sure, we gave up 2 prospects and 3 throw ins, but if theres something strong on our system is pitching, and we still have our #1 and # 3 pitching prospects... I dont see it that bad...
This column does a great job of explaining things about the trade. It's from Fangraphs. It's too big to post here...so go read the fucker at the link! http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-were-the-dodgers-alternatives/ EDIT: The man Irish got it to fit below.
^ What Were The Dodgers Alternatives? by Dave Cameron - August 27, 2012 On Friday night, the Dodgers made their latest calculated gamble, taking on $260 million in future salaries from the Red Sox in order to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto. In the write-up I did on Friday, I noted that the best way to explain this trade from the Dodgers perspective is that they are attempting to capitalize on their current contender status under the hope that they can achieve a significant revenue bounce from a playoff run that could offset a large part of the costs of these acquisitions. There’s another theory floating around, however, that has to do with the upcoming free agent class. If we accept that the Dodgers were going to spend this much money at some point in the near future, the argument is that the relatively unimpressive group of free agents set to hit the market this winter made this a better choice than spending the same money on free agents in three months and getting inferior players without the added bonus of their production down the stretch in 2012. So, let’s go through the options, and see what else the Dodgers could have potentially done with their giant wad of cash. First, let’s break down the $260 million figure into actual figures, since there’s a difference between giving that money to one player versus four separate players, each of whom requires a salary in 2012. Here’s an estimated annual breakdown of what the Dodgers committed to pay over the weekend, assuming that the Red Sox are picking up all of the 2012 salaries and the Dodgers are on the hook for all of the 2013 and beyond salaries. 2013: Gonzalez: $21 million Crawford: $20 million Beckett: $15.8 million Punto: $1.5 million Total: $58.3 million 2014: Gonzalez: $21 million Crawford: $20.2 million Beckett: $15.8 million Total: $58.5 million 2015: Gonzalez: $21 million Crawford: $20.5 million Total: $41.5 million 2016: Gonzalez: $21 million Crawford: $20.8 million Total: $41.8 million 2017: Gonzalez: $21.5 million Crawford: $21 million Total: $42.5 million 2018: Gonzalez: $21.5 million Total: $21.5 million That adds up to $264 million, which is just slightly above the reported $260 million figure that the Dodgers are on the hook for. It’s possible that those reports just rounded down, or that the Sox are kicking in $4 million somewhere, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t matter too much. Overall, we’re looking at an expenditure of around between $55-$60 million for the next two years, a little over $40 million for the next three, and then just over $20 million in year six. So, you can’t just look at this and say that the Dodgers could have signed three premium free agents this winter with the $60 million they just spent, since the future commitments drop off significantly after Beckett’s deal expires. To line this up more with what they got, we need to essentially look for two potential long term deals and one shorter deal, though we’ll give ourselves the freedom to move money around within the deals to fit other options as long as the future commitments come out similarly. Let’s start with the big bat, since that was the key to this trade from LA’s perspective. Could they have gotten something as good as Gonzalez this winter? In terms of just pure hitting potential, the best bats (as rated by ZIPS rest-of-season projections) that will hit the open market this winter are: David Ortiz: .381 wOBA Josh Hamilton: .374 wOBA Kevin Youkilis: .363 wOBA Lance Berkman: .361 wOBA Mike Napoli: .358 wOBA Nick Swisher: .353 wOBA For comparison, Gonzalez is at .357, so his offensive production would fit in comfortably with most of the guys on this list. Ortiz is not an option since he’s strictly a DH, and Berkman is openly talking about retirement, so in reality, it’s a choice between Gonzalez and signing one of Hamilton, Youkilis, Napoli, or Swisher. Gonzalez is the youngest of those five, but he’s only six months younger than Napoli, so there’s not a huge difference there. He’s a year younger than Hamilton, 18 months younger than Swisher, and three years younger than Youkilis, who is likely nearing the end of his run as an elite hitter, if he hasn’t gotten there already. Given that Youkilis is quite a bit older, we’ll strike him from the list as well, and just focus on Hamilton, Napoli, and Swisher as alternative “big bat” options. How much of our budget would each cost? Hamilton’s tricky, because his off-the-field issues and injury concerns seem likely to limit his future contract, but the talent is such a wild card that I don’t think anyone really knows what he’s going to get. I could see him landing a seven year, $140 million deal this winter, or I could see him settling for 3/70. But, just for argument’s sake, let’s take the high side of the deal, and say Hamilton would have required 7/140. We covered Swisher last week, and I estimated about 5/90 for him, and the convenience there is that he has experience at first base, so signing him would directly fill the role that Gonzalez was brought in to fill. Interestingly, if they went cheap on the starter, the Dodgers might have been able to afford both Hamilton and Swisher, so this isn’t necessarily an either/or option here. Napoli’s another tough guy to decipher, as he’s battled injuries and regressed back to what he was before he got to Texas, and right now doesn’t look like the monster bat he was a year ago. However, if he was moved off catcher full time and just asked to play first base, there’s certainly some thunder in his bat that could lead to a return to higher levels of production. He won’t get anything close to what Hamilton or Swisher will, I don’t imagine, and would have represented the more frugal option as a big bat first baseman, assuming that the Dodgers could have convinced him to give up catching to begin with. Just spitballing, I’m penciling Napoli in for 3/36, or somewhere in that range. On the pitching side of things, the options are more vast, and in the interest of brevity, we’re not going to go through every single available free agent starting pitcher. Let’s just say that the Dodgers could have probably landed a pitcher ranging from Zack Greinke (for, say, 6/130 if they really wanted him) to Anibal Sanchez (5/75ish?), or Ryan Dempster (3/30?), who we know badly wanted to go to LA at the deadline. Or they could have gone dumpster diving and come up with another Chris Capuano type, maybe by landing a guy like Francisco Liriano for $8 million on a one year deal. If my wild guess speculations here aren’t too far off base, then the Dodgers could have spent similar amounts of money and come away with one of the various packages below: A. Josh Hamilton (7/140), Nick Swisher (5/90), and Ryan Dempster (3/30) B. Zack Greinke (6/130), Nick Swisher (5/90), and Mike Napoli (3/36) C. Nick Swisher (5/90), Anibal Sanchez (5/75), and Mike Napoli (3/36), with $60 million leftover Would any of those packages have been preferable to the trio that the Dodgers actually got? I think I’d have gone for Option A, personally, even with Hamilton’s baggage. Hamilton is pretty close to Gonzalez in value, Swisher is likely better than Crawford, and Dempster is almost certainly better than Beckett at this point. What about you guys? Of the four potential packages, which would you have chosen, remembering to factor in that the Gonzalez/Crawford/Beckett triumvirate is the only one that would return any value before next season, but that was also the only trio that also cost them five prospects, including Rubby de la Rosa and Allen Webster.
Its a great analysis, exactly what I said when I saw the trade... They did their offseason signings now... I dont trust Hamilton in LA, too risky... I thnk Swisher is over rated and benefits for being in the middle of that lineup, so i would rather have CC... beckett is the tricky one, we overpaid, so what... Now we have a decent 4th starter for 2 more years... Sre we lost. 2 prospects, but thats what they are, prospects... Ad one of them is coming off TJ...
