NEWS/RUMORS Thread

I think they can keep a solid core for a couple of years before a firesale.

 

Actually no. Not at that price. That's what I'm saying. That contract reminds me of the Kevin Malone days.......I don't want to relive that nightmare again.

 

ESPN’s Jayson Stark has spoken to a number of industry sources for his most recent look at Shields’ market, and he lists various reasons that the industry doesn’t expect Shields to end up with the Marlins, D-Backs, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Royals, Tigers, Rangers, Astros, Cardinals and Brewers (the Padres, at least, are listed as “possible, but not likely”).



Lol damn. is there anybody left? this guy wants 5yrs/100M at the age of 33 when he showed signs of cracking late last year. i still find that amazing.

 

Who's his agent? Dave Stewart?
His agent is an idiot.

 

AND he still costs a draft pick to boot.

 

I have to assume you are speaking specifically of his last 3 starts, since his Sept/Oct numbers as a group are probably the best he had all year. He gave up 3 runs each of his last 3 starts but the two before that he held opponents scoreless for 8.1 and 7 innings respectively. Just about every category was better in the second half except K/9.

 

He's an innings eater, which is something many teams value highly. He's good for 200+ innings every year and is good during those 200 innings. Not advocating signing him, but he should be an attractive option for many teams.

 

you assume correctly.

 

yeah, but of course he's also 33yrs old, so i don't necessarily think having all those innings on his arm is being seen as a positive right now..not at the price that he's asking for. reportedly half the league is balking on that. asking for 5yrs is unreasonable. maybe he's doing it so that he eventually " settles " for 4yrs, but teams are probably playing the same game with him and offering him 2yrs and looking to settle at 3. and there lies the impasse.

he's never been a " big game " pitcher in the playoffs..even when he had his stuff working in OCT guys would figure him out. but the difference this past post season was that he was struggling with his stuff. there were signs during the season..his K/9 took a big dip this past year. he's a decent #3 starter right now, but the question is, " who wants to be driving that car when the wheels blow? " a 3yr deal is fair..going with the overpay over that time frame is ideal. 3yrs/70M

 

i want some fuckin news on this late inning reliever they're supposed to be working to acquire through trade.

Papelbon? Wade Davis? some under the radar/underappreciated cat??

 

Davis would be great but I don't think the Royals would do it unless we part with something big. All this talk about needing more pen pieces is kind of confusing to me. The guys we have now should be given a chance especially guys like Wieland, Hatcher, Baez and Garcia have to be better than last year, nowhere to go but up.

 

Five years is certainly too much, and he has a LOT of miles on that arm. I agree on that.

His K/9 took a big dip? Not really, it was higher than his age 26 or 27 seasons, and perhaps those last 3 years in Tampa (his 3 highest in terms of K/9) were the anomaly and not the norm. Other than his K/9, there were NO signs during the season. His BB/9 was lower and his K/BB ratio was his second best. Perhaps you're seeing the age old phenomena of a pitcher learning how to pitch vs. how to throw. You don't have to strike out every hitter...just the ones you need to. Like Koufax said "I became a better pitcher when I stopped trying to make hitters miss the ball and started trying to make them hit it."

But like you said, he sucked in the postseason and at 33 years old, he's due to hit the DL sooner than later.

 

if his post season performance had gotten any better i could understand that theory. what's more likely is just that all the innings have added up and he's just on the downswing now as far as K's go. missing bats is pretty important in the post season..not that he's ever been able to do that come playoff time, but at the very least he used to have his stuff..guys would just take the contact approach and eventually rock him. last we saw he was struggling to find his stuff and it wasn't just his last 3 starts..it was 4 of his last 5 starts. the Royals' running game saved his keister in the WC play-in game.

Russian roulette. and the draft compensation that's attached to him doesn't help his case either.

 

i don't know..set up man is a pretty big role. i could understand if they wanted to go out and get a more experienced late inning guy who's not as old as Peralta is. Hatcher has the looks of a guy who has potential to fill that role, but maybe they want a sure thing? who knows? they may end up dealing for another below the radar guy.

i'm just wondering where the hell this was a couple weeks ago before Tyler Clippard was dealt? Clippard would've been a nice 8th inning fit.

 

That's a possibility and I don't discount it. However, basing that on one season and one stat is a bit myopic. His other stats remain as good as they have been over his career.

Again, don't disagree. His post season record is not good. But post season is all about SSS. Our own players are the perfect example. Kershaw is the best pitcher on the planet, but not against St. Louis in the postseason. A.J. Ellis is at best a league average backstop but in the post season he's a super hero.

If you make your decision on whether to sign a player based on their post season performance you are not making the best decision.

In my eyes, his value lies in what he does between April and September. And because of his age and his innings I wouldn't be willing to go more than three years. I might try to overpay the hell out of him for two, with an option, but he wouldn't go for it. To me, his post season performance is of no consequence...just like Kershaw. He pitched 34 games with a 3.21 ERA, to say he's on the downhill because of a handful of postseason games isn't good judgement.

 

his K/9 has dropped the last 2 seasons.

the K/9 stat on it's own works well enough for the point made. this guy is 33yrs old with heavy mileage. it stands to reason that he's already peaked in terms of raw stuff.

if it were just about his post season numbers he'd be consistent. however, Shields was struggling with his stuff. that was new.

i agree with that. however, that's like #5 on my list.

 

As I already pointed out, his K/9 is down from those 3 last years in Tampa, when it was at it's highest. However, it is right in line with the rest of his career minus THOSE 3. So his K/9 hasn't really dropped, it just peaked and now has reverted to norm. If you're only looking at K/9 then you have the blinders on. The three years he had a high K/9 he was a total 6.4 WAR player. Over the last two when his K/9 "dropped", he was a 7.4 WAR player.

 

but his K/9 has dropped..just because it's back to where it was at the beginning of his career doesn't mean you overlook the drop from his peak..he's 33yrs old, has a ton of mileage, has peaked already, and just showed the cracks of not being able to get a grip on his stuff a few months ago. you certainly do note the drop in K/9 if you're a GM that's thinking of paying him big him going forward. if he's not gonna overpower anybody, he'd better be able to locate, especially late for the kind of money he's asking for.

you keep saying that " i'm only looking at K/9 " when i've repeatedly mentioned that he struggled with his stuff as well just this past post season. maybe you have the blinders on?? this is what the insiders are saying about him..not just me. read the Jason Stark piece. did you watch the post season after the Dodgers were eliminated? Shields couldn't locate his change up and get it over for strikes, missing outside with his fastball, constantly falling behind in counts because of it..again, even though he's struggled in past Octobers it was never because of a struggle with his stuff and it's just part of the reason why GMs are wary of a big commitment. his lack of command could become a trend late in seasons as the inning keep piling up. when you're drawing up his contract you're projecting and you need to consider every bit of info.

 

Jesus. Do you not read anything I write? All you can say is his K/9 is down and he's 'struggling with his stuff' (which sounds gay to me, but wtf). Show me the stat for 'struggling with his stuff'. Now you say if he can't strikeout hitters he better be able to locate. I already told you his BB/9 was the second best of his career, if that's not locating I don't know what is. And you still refer to the SSS of the post season, that's all you're talking about. I've been telling you that last season across the board his numbers are as good as they have been for his career. But you want to point to a handful of games that could have been affected by any number of things, including fatigue and stress. Yes, you need to consider every bit of info, and all the info says he's a regular season workhorse with an excellent history. That he suffers in comparison in the postseason means you limit his role after he helps you to the playoffs. No, he's not worth the years and money he wants. Yes, he would be an excellent addition to any rotation aspiring to make it to the playoffs. Based on that you make him an offer according to that value. If he balks at that offer, then let him go find another one.

 

I was going to point out that is bb/9 was among the best he has had and that his second half last season was much better than his first half, but b2b would come up with some other myth about him.