DODGERS Dodgers vs Braves - NLCS

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by doyerfan, Oct 10, 2020.

?

Which starting pitcher has best performance(s)

Poll closed Oct 12, 2020.
  1. Buehler

    27.3%
  2. Kershaw

    63.6%
  3. Urias

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. Gonsolin

    9.1%
  1. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    25,897
    Likes Received:
    12,353
    Trophy Points:
    228
    upload_2020-10-10_7-34-0.png

    All games on FOX/FS1
    No days off again though

    Game 2: 3:05 p.m. (FS1)
    Game 3: 3:05 p.m. (FS1)

    Braves roster resource (providing information on who their team is and typical lineups): https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/braves

    Game 1 FAQ: https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-dodgers-nlcs-game-1-faq-preview

    Positional breakdown: https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-dodgers-nlcs-position-by-position-analysis

    Braves preview: https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodg...formidable-obstacle-dodgers-path-world-series

    How the Braves got here:
    https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-path-to-2020-postseason

    ESPNs NLCS preview: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...ers-nlcs-pits-mlb-two-best-offenses-much-more

    no roster news as of yet. The big things to look for:
    1) will Edwin be healthy to replace Lux?
    2) will we go third catcher again? In a 7 game series with no off days, you need Barnes to start at least 2 games, so maybe a third catcher helps
    3) does our pitching stay the same? Braves do worse against lefties compared to righties, although they have plenty of right handed bats that it’s tough to know if it’s real or not. Replacing Floro with Alex Wood would take a lot of convincing but wonder if they go for it
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2020
  2. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse DFA Kenley Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    12,170
    Likes Received:
    14,162
    Trophy Points:
    198
    I don’t really see the argument against the third catcher (I was surprised Ruiz wasn’t on the NLDS roster). With 28-man roster, Smith is our DH, no off days, and we are the favorite - third catcher seems like a no brainer to me. If Smith gets hurt and there’s a chance he can return for the WS, then you absolutely can’t replace him on the roster and you are down to one catcher. I don’t mind a pinch runner on the roster, but there’s a low need for a pinch runner and even then we have guys who can run in a pinch. A third catcher is an insurance policy we need. If we were the underdog or if Smith was a scrub, I’d think differently.

    Ruiz on the NLCS roster, then you can swap him for Gore on the WS roster.
     
    doyerfan and VRP like this.
  3. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    14,657
    Likes Received:
    8,746
    Trophy Points:
    198
    I love our chances. Are we gonna start 5 guys? Seems unlikely Buehler pitches on 3 days rest right?
     
  4. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    25,897
    Likes Received:
    12,353
    Trophy Points:
    228
    i think 5 guys but only 1-4 will be played somewhat straight. I do think they’re gonna use an opener for Julio

    game 5 I think it’ll be played day by day. I think they’ll use Dustin as a reliever in at least one of the games, and game 5 would be Dustin as “bulk” guy and dependent on which relievers are available.
    Game 6 or 7 would be Buehler/Kershaw with the 3 other guys out of bullpen when they are able
     
    BlueMouse likes this.
  5. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    25,897
    Likes Received:
    12,353
    Trophy Points:
    228
    Yeah and with a third catcher you can use Barnes as a pinch runner anyways. Not nearly as fast as Gore but still

    not to mention, the Braves have a few very good lefty relievers and right now the right handed bench bats is basically only Enrique. You have Ruiz out there and you can feel much better about using Barnes as a hitter off the bench
     
    BlueMouse likes this.
  6. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse DFA Kenley Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    12,170
    Likes Received:
    14,162
    Trophy Points:
    198
    With no off days, pitching on short rest means pitching 3 guys on short rest to gain anything. I just don’t see the upside in that. It has to be a 5-man rotation with Walker and Kershaw getting games 6 and 7. I think you even go full bullpen game in game 5 if needed before going back to Buehler.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2020
  7. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    25,897
    Likes Received:
    12,353
    Trophy Points:
    228
  8. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    48,249
    Likes Received:
    33,301
    Trophy Points:
    278
    per bleacher report...
    buehler game 1, kershaw game 2
     
  9. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    48,249
    Likes Received:
    33,301
    Trophy Points:
    278
    would have gone with gonsolin in the poll
    but i can't be sure roberts will give him a start
     
    BlueMouse and mugs like this.
  10. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    25,897
    Likes Received:
    12,353
    Trophy Points:
    228
    No announcement beyond game 2 but Urias will “pitch meaningful innings” and Gonsolin is pitching a sim game today (which means game 3 would be 3 days rest)

    Ima guess they’re in a holding pattern and wanna see if they need those 2 or May in games 1 or 2 and play it day by day how they handle 3-5, with probably some openers used

    I’d wanna play it more straightforward but whatever, I also want all arms available at all times
     
    fsudog21 and irish like this.
  11. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse DFA Kenley Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    12,170
    Likes Received:
    14,162
    Trophy Points:
    198
    They clearly think of Gonsolin as the #5 starter, but the sim-game today lines him up for Game 4 which is where I would target him.

    Game 1: Buehler with May piggybacking
    Game 2: Kershaw
    Game 3: Urias with opener
    Game 4: Gonsolin
    Game 5: May
    Game 6: Buehler with Urias piggybacking
    Game 7: Kershaw

    Urias and May could be flipped, but essentially something like that. If Gonsolin pitches deep into the game, which he has done this year, it would be huge for the pen. I’d also have Barnes catch Game 4 just to keep Smith’s legs fresh.
     
    Nirvanaskurdt and doyerfan like this.
  12. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    48,249
    Likes Received:
    33,301
    Trophy Points:
    278
    makes sense
    especially with the lack of days off
    i hate the "opener" shit, but if it works so be it
     
    fsudog21 and doyerfan like this.
  13. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    25,897
    Likes Received:
    12,353
    Trophy Points:
    228
    I think they do Urias game 3 for sure only cause Braves are worse against lefties and he’s been pitching great. As for Barnes, he’d catch game 2 with Kershaw so I bet his schedule is catching game 2, maybe a game 5 (which would also presumably be against Fried, the lefty), then a game 7?
     
  14. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    14,657
    Likes Received:
    8,746
    Trophy Points:
    198
    I’m not sure if anyone else said this, but think Kershaw in Game 1 would’ve made more sense in this particular series. But it’s semantics I guess
     
  15. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse DFA Kenley Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    12,170
    Likes Received:
    14,162
    Trophy Points:
    198
    You think they bring Fried back on short rest? I assume he pitches Game 1.
     
    irish likes this.
  16. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    25,897
    Likes Received:
    12,353
    Trophy Points:
    228
    good question, I think games 4-7 would be impossible to predict since it would change depending on results. Especially since Braves only have 3 starting pitchers
     
    irish likes this.
  17. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    48,249
    Likes Received:
    33,301
    Trophy Points:
    278
    misc stuff...
    • The Dodgers are very patient in seeking out their pitch, while the Braves are much more aggressive. The Dodgers had the second-lowest chase rate in the majors, but the Braves ranked just 18th. The Braves swung at the first pitch 35.5% of the time -- highest in the majors. Despite the more patient approach, the Dodgers were actually fairly aggressive on the first pitch as well, swinging 30.4% of the time (eighth highest).
    • Other teams often point out how the Dodgers always seems to be in the right place on defense. Indeed, Los Angeles allowed the second-lowest batting average on balls in play at .253 (the MLB average was .292). The Dodgers did shift more than any other team -- 55.8% of the time. The Braves, meanwhile, shifted less often than any other -- just 7.6% of the time.
    • Based on defensive runs saved, the defenses of the four LCS teams ranked like this in the regular season: Dodgers: plus-29, Rays: plus-24, Astros: plus-12, Braves: minus-8
    ESPN
     
  18. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    25,897
    Likes Received:
    12,353
    Trophy Points:
    228
    Although the Braves offense and pitching is very good, these made me feel better cause it seems like a straightforward advantage: we make more way more contact than them and when we make contact, their defense isn’t nearly as good to turn it into outs

    I feel like the Braves in the last playoff series we faced them had similar offense with great players but they whiff a lot, which we all know needs to be cut down in the playoffs
     
    irish likes this.
  19. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse DFA Kenley Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    12,170
    Likes Received:
    14,162
    Trophy Points:
    198
    The Braves struck out the 3rd most in MLB this year, while the Dodgers struck out the 4th least. So it’s a high strikeout team vs a low strikeout team.

    What’s interesting is the team with the most strikeouts this year? The Rays. The team with the least strikeouts? The Astros.
     
  20. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo DSP Legend

    Joined:
    Nov 2011
    Messages:
    22,677
    Likes Received:
    16,543
    Trophy Points:
    198
    Which team is better looking though ?
    We have Petey and Toomgis...who do they have?
     
    jpldodgers likes this.

Share This Page