NEWS/RUMORS/INJURIES/"CHRIS's CRAZY THOUGHTS" Thread

fwiw
#4 is interesting...

Jon Lester and the Dodgers: 10 things you need to know
by J.P. Hoornstra | Inside the Dodgers -- 3 hours ago


Jon Lester went 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA in 32 starts last season for the Red Sox and A’s.

Jon Lester is arguably the best left-handed pitcher on the free agent market. Wednesday, it was revealed that the Dodgers might enter an escalating bidding war for his services (according to reports here, here, here, here and here).

Here’s what you need to know as of Thursday morning:

1. It is unknown if the Dodgers have made an offer to Lester, or if Lester has a time frame in mind to make his decision. But his decision will affect other teams’ pitching pursuits in free agency, and the Winter Meetings — often a prime time for decision making — begin Monday.

2. WEEI.com in Boston, which first reported the Dodgers’ interest, believes that Zack Greinke‘s six-year, $147 million contract offers a useful *starting* point for the Lester negotiations:

… given the career similarities of the two at the time of their free agency. Greinke secured his deal after the 2012 season, when, in 1,492 innings, he had a 91-78 record, 3.77 ERA, 114 ERA+, 8.0 strikeouts per nine and 2.3 walks per nine. Lester has logged 1,596 innings with a 116-67 record, 3.58 ERA, 121 ERA+, 8.2 strikeouts per nine and 3.1 walks per nine.)​

3. Greinke can opt out of his contract and become a free agent after next season. I could use this space to speculate whether or not Greinke will opt out, but it’s not the time. Here’s how it might play out: Reporters will ask Greinke about his plans when he reports to spring training. Greinke will not have decided by then. He’ll get asked a few more times during the season, but he will not have decided by then either. The Dodgers – that is, Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi – will want an answer before then so they can shape their post-2015 roster. None of us are getting an answer right now, and Friedman and Zaidi must hedge against the possibility of Greinke leaving. Lester, who is 78 days younger than Greinke, would ensure the starting rotation has two aces beyond next season.

4. Lester’s agent, Seth Levinson, has a good working relationship with Andrew Friedman. Five of his clients were under contract to the Rays last season.

5. To this point, Lester has met with four teams (Red Sox, Cubs, Braves and Giants) and all but one meeting has reportedly taken place near his suburban Atlanta home.

6. The Dodgers have also reportedly expressed interest in Max Scherzer, arguably the best right-handed pitcher on the market.

7. The Dodgers must pay an additional 30 percent on every dollar spent above $189 million on player payroll in 2014. In 2015, they must pay an additional 40 percent on every dollar spent above $189 million. Unless they drop below $189 million in payroll before then, the tax rises to 50 percent on the dollar in 2016. (The collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, 2016.) There has been no indication that the $189 million figure is of any significance to the Dodgers’ plans for the next two seasons.

8. There have been indications that Friedman and Zaidi are looking to lower the club’s payroll somewhat for next season. That could be achieved by trading two outfielders from the group of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford — even if the Dodgers agree to pay part of their remaining contracts.

9. Lester was traded during the 2014 season, which made him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. That was not the case for Scherzer, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Detroit Tigers. Players who reject a qualifying offer and sign with a different team will cost the signing team their first-round draft choice (unless that pick is a protected pick, typically in the top 10), so the Dodgers would lose the 25th overall pick if they signed Scherzer. That inherently makes Lester a more appealing target.

10. It has been suggested elsewhere that the Dodgers are dropping their name into the hat for the purpose of driving up the Giants’ offer to Lester. It’s the oldest trick in the book, and therefore one you shouldn’t dismiss.​

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fucken awesome

Ryan Walton ‏@RyanWaltonVBN 5 hours ago
Scott Van Slyke was on MLB Network Radio earlier and was asked about Jon Lester.
"It would give Kershaw another lefty weirdo to talk to."
8:59 AM - 4 Dec 2014 ​

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Joe McDonnell ‏@joeontheradio 49 minutes ago
Dodgers: Sign Zack Greinke to a new contract. Sign Jon Lester. You'll have the best four starters in the game And don't trade Matt Kemp
1:44 PM - 4 Dec 2014 · Details​

 

lol, boston hack freaking out

No Dodging This Development: Jon Lester Isn't Coming Back If Los Angeles Is Involved
by Eric Wilbur | Boston Globe -- 8 hours ago




If it is indeed true that the Los Angeles Dodgers have thrown their hat into the Jon Lester sweepstakes, Boston might as well say a collective, permanent goodbye.

He’s not coming back.

According to WEEI.com, the Dodgers have expressed “serious interest” in the free agent, left-handed pitcher, with one source under the impression that Los Angeles had already made him an offer. Let the speculation begin as to how stratospheric that number could be.

Ace Clayton Kershaw signed a seven-year, $180 million dollar extension with the team last January, an average annual value of $25.7 million.

Zack Greinke inked a six-year, $147 million contract in 2012, an AAV of $24.5 million.

It stands to reason that the Dodgers’ offer to Lester would hover somewhere in the same range, potentially giving L.A. a nasty 1-2-3 top of the starting rotation, including the notable influx of a characteristic that Kershaw, for all his dynamic traits, has been lacking.

Postseason credibility.

It’s been 26 years since the Dodgers last won the World Series, but they’re clearly on the cusp. Still, they’ve yet to be able to make the unexpected hurdle of their star player’s incompetence in the postseason. Kershaw is a ridiculous 98-49 with a 2.48 ERA during the regular season, but only 1-5 with a 5.12 ERA once teams whip out the bunting. Lester, of course, has won a pair of titles in no small part thanks to his 6-4, 2.57 playoff line, including a 3-0 record in the World Series with a 0.43 ERA.

He’s perfect for the Dodgers.

Is Los Angeles perfect for Lester? A big ballpark, National League lineups, old friends in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, and $150-$180 million certainly put it atop the conversation. Buddy Josh Beckett probably has some kind words about the Chavez Ravine experience as well.

You’d be foolish to think the Red Sox would be willing to match or surpass any offer from the Dodgers, who step over the luxury tax as if it were dirty penny on the sidewalk. The Dodgers, with their $8 billion TV contract, had a payroll of $235,684,934 in 2014, won’t be paying $16 million to Hanley Ramirez in 2015, and face the possibility that Greinke can opt out of his deal after the season (He’s due to make $25 million in ’15, $26 million in ’16, $25 million in ’17, and $26 million in ’18). Lester would give them some insurance that their staff will remain stable even in the unlikely nature that Greinke (17-8, 2.71 ERA in ’14) thinks he can get a better deal on the open market at the age of 32.

The Red Sox’ latest offer to Lester was reportedly around $130 million over six years, an AAV of $21.7 million. While that’s a far cry from the four-year, $70 million the team offered him in spring training, there still has to be a general question if the Red Sox really even want him that badly to begin with. All told, it was well-speculated as Lester approached free agency that he’d probably make somewhere around $150 million on the open market. If the Sox made an offer just below that, they could at least make face and throw their hands in the air with a, “hey, we tried” message to a fan base thirsting for the lefty’s return. Principal owner John Henry made his thoughts about signing 30-year-old pitchers to long-term deals very clear last summer. A few months later he’s going to do an about-face and give a guy who will be 31 years of age six years and $25 million per?

If it doesn’t sound fishy, it’s mainly because fans aren’t doing the thinking with the commitment of their wallets in tow. Lester is as durable as they come, making an average of 34 starts a season over his nine-year major league career. He’s failed to post double-digit wins only in the Bobby Valentine farcical campaign (9-14, 4.82), but rebounded the next two seasons to win 31 games, including another title. Despite the fears, there’s every reason to commit to him long term not to even mention the familiarity both sides have for one another.

But he’s about to break the bank, and if it’s not with the Dodgers, perhaps you heard the percolating reports that the Yankees are about to get involved. If those two teams start a bidding war, is it daft to reason that the number may quickly approach $200 million?

We wondered how fascinating it might be to watch former Tampa Bay Rays general manager Andrew Friedman take over in Los Angeles with a cash flow that is in every way the antithesis of what he dealt with in Florida. He might come out of the gate reeling in the offseason’s top catch.

The bidding is poised to get silly, and the Red Sox will be no part of it. He’s gone, and there are two possible outcomes.1. The Red Sox simply move on with their offseason plan on moving on without Lester, who they didn’t realistically think was coming back anyway. 2. Like a jilted lover they give Max Scherzer somewhere in the range of $160 million with the hopes of flaunting him at the postseason dance.

Unless the Dodgers want him too, in which case, we’re left talking about Cole Hamels and Jeff Samardzija to anchor a pitching staff in complete disarray.

But you might as well let Lester go now. ​

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• Alex Speier of WEEI Boston reported this morning, one source thinks the Dodgers have already made an offer to Lester, while another source was unsure. But that source “felt that Los Angeles was prepared to pounce late and blow away the offers that had been made.” And the Dodgers are “in position to make the offers that Lester has received to date from the Cubs and Red Sox appear quaint by comparison.” It would not be a stretch to say, the Dodgers will make the highest bid to Jon Lester.

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• Buster Olney thinks one of the reasons the Dodgers are interested in signing Lester is to drive up his price and “push the Giants to spend more in case San Francisco wins the bidding.” But the Dodgers are interested in having a top three of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Jon Lester for at least one season.

 

You just get the vibe that something big is about to happen. Fingers crossed.