DODGERS 2020 MINOR LEAGUE/PROSPECTS THREAD

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by ColoradoKidWitGame, Dec 18, 2019.

  1. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Kody Hoese checks in at #10 in the top 3B prospects thread. He did not get written up for any one top quality tool. His helium year that got him drafted, then the meh arrival at LoA probably did not help his projections as they like to see things progress over a couple of seasons. They have his hit tool as average, which is interesting since they do think he should hit well enough to man 1B if a defensive switch is necessary. As with Busch, he will need to show up this season and if he does, he will blow up the prospect list. Since both were college bats, their time to shine is needed to be much more immanent. Hoese also does possess a strong feel for the strike zone, much like Busch as well, but the feeling is Hoese has a higher power ceiling due to his large frame. His defense is solid at 3B, but it has some consistency issues, though they think he should be able to work them out.

    The thing about Busch and Hoese is generally these kind of college bats don't have superstar potential behind them, though this trend is shifting a bit. Both have strong foundations for the Dodgers to build off of, so it will be interesting to see how they are developed. Both kind of remind me of Will Smith when he was drafted, only these two have already tapped into their power before the club snatched them. Smith was a high contact bat that had shown flashes of pop in college. Hoese and Busch could be the type of players that can thrive in the Dodgers system and give the club a decent floor from their recent draft picks.
     
  2. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    The list is updated with the Fantrax Top 250. This is a bit different than other prospect lists as this is from a purely fantasy standpoint. So they are looking at guys that will have the best impact on a fantasy level and how far away they are matters a whole lot. So that made the inclusion of some of the further away Dodgers prospects a bit more interesting to some. If you are asking, "why is Dustin May so low?", the answer is that May does not have a strikeout pitch yet. He is not your prototypical front of the rotation starter in that he can blow guys away. He forces guys into a lot of weak contact and that makes him less valuable from a fantasy level.

    I have also added the Top 50 from Jim Bowden over at the Athletic. He is not and has never been high on May. Whether it be on the radio or in his writing. He has May as a mid rotation starter or closer while most see the floor for May being a mid rotation guy now. Bowden has said that if he were running the Dodgers, Lux, May and Ruiz would all be gone by now. He has also said the same about Smith, Verdugo and Buehler in the past as well. He has at least admitted on air that he thinks that Lux is one of the best hitting prospects in baseball.

    The John Sickels Top 105 also dropped and since I let my Athletic account expire, I had not been able to access these last two until now. Sickels has Lux as #4, but mentions that based on his position, he could be ranked higher. A grades are usually left for guys with star potential, B for guys that are above average and may have a couple peak AS caliber potential years, C's are guys that have a couple starter caliber years, but mostly average starters or bench guys. He mentions that he thinks both Gray and Downs are probably rated too low. He says that Gray is working hard at improving his changeup(#3 pitch) and that Ruiz was VERY impressive after his AAA call up and thinks there is big time potential there.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2020
  3. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    I hope you are right about Ruiz. Though I don't think he necessarily went backwards in 2019, he certainly didn't go forwards at all. When it comes to catchers, a guy can have down years on one side of the ball if it means they are improving on the other side of it. The problem for Ruiz is that apparently did not happen for any aspect of his game. Most reports on him were that he looked like the exact same player as the year before with no improvement on any facet of his game. That is what worries people as that can be seen as him potentially leveling out. I am really hoping that he takes a big step forward in 2020 as some of the things that are dragging him down have been the same things we have been hearing about for 2-3 years now. He is still young, but his window for superstar potential is about closed. He is going to need to show some selectivity at the plate this season and hopefully brings a bit more pop with him as well.
     
  4. No Name

    No Name Well-Known Member

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    You are a prospect guy. When do you ever remember a prospect leveling out at age 20? He spent much of his pre injury season as a 20 year old. He made it to AAA. Perhaps his offensive NUMBERS didn't say that he earned the promotion but whatever the reason, he made it to AAA and did very well until he was injured.

    Not only is he now just 21, but he's a 21 year old catcher. How many catchers are finished products at age 24? Few. He's 21. In regards to his pitch selection, I see zero issues.

    He is a good defensive catcher. That improves yearly. His strike zone judgement simply couldn't be better but that also gives hope for power. Not only is he prodigious in his swing selection but he doesn't swing and miss. His swing is built for line drives. If he sacrafices some bat control and adds some lift he WILL hit for power. He has too quick of hands and too good of a swing to not. He has the hit tool. You don't lose that. You can, however modify it.
     
  5. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    BA Top 100 dropped today and the list has been updated again. Dodgers with the second most representatives at 7. That is pretty substantial as they are only behind the Rays for most prospects in the 100. The Dodgers had a bevy of players in the 80's, including a massive nearly 50 spot drop for Keibert Ruiz. Everyone says the same thing about Lux in that he is going to be a big time hitter, the real question at this point is whether he is going to be able to handle SS due to his throwing issues. He had cleaned that up by the end of last year, but scouts are still very wary of it. They think Gonsolin should be a solid starter for the club and feel he has 4 average or above pitches. I really hope he can get his control more in line, that would cause a massive jump in his potential. They are wary on Downs defensive potential, but think he will hit. I would not be shocked if he slides in for Hernandez in a year as much more potent UTL bat.
     
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  6. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    MLB Pipeline Top SS's dropped today and the Dodgers unsurprisingly had 2 reps in Downs and Lux who came in at #'s 8 and 2. Lux tied with best power, had the highest floor and is their ROY candidate. Downs took humblest beginnings.

    They think that Lux should be .300 hitter with 25-30 HR's and will steal upwards of 20 bags a season. They remark that the arm issues have been fixed, but think that Seager is still the better SS so he should be at 2B. They have him close to being a true 5 tool SS, but falls just shy due to the questions about his defense.

    As for Downs, they said his slow start last season was due to impatience at the plate, I would not be shocked if that was him trying too hard to impress his new organization. Once he settled down, he truly took off. In 2019 he started using the whole field and hitting for power while also showing enough in the field that they think he can stick at SS. He will be interesting to watch this season in that I have seen a lot of people remark that he and Lux are not similar as Lux did not struggle like Downs did at the same age, so his ceiling is much lower. Well, Downs still destroyed the ball for nearly 4 straight months after figuring things out, including an impressive introduction in AA while in his first year with one of the best developmental orgs in the game. We may yet still more upside out of Downs.
     
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  7. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Guys level out all the time in the minors whether it be at 19, 21 or 24, that is far from unheard of. Once teams learn how to pitch to you, they adjust and it is up to you to adjust back. That was the problem for him last year in repeating the level, teams knew what his weakness was and frustratingly, he did not adjust well. I am absolutely not closing the door on him one bit, but he stumbled badly at his first major hurdle, whether or not he was young for the level. The good news is that he plays a position that is notorious for mountain range type development(big up, big downs) and he really could have been disappointed in that he had to repeat.

    Like I have said in the past for him, if he had improved in anything last year I would not be nearly as worried, but the problem is that reports across the board were pretty bland and matched things from 2017 and 2018 that scouts said were some issues he needed to work on, then his explosion in AAA was cut short. Nobody here is arguing his contact ability, we have pointed this out in the past, the worry is that he has still shown that he struggles identifying what pitches are good to hit and which pitches are good to let go. Due to his elite hand eye coordination and poor power, these all have turned into a very mediocre cocktail. Can that be fixed? Absolutely! Is it ok to worry since this has now been his problem for 2+ years? Yup. Have I lost all hope in him? Nope.

    The other thing about his year was that his defense didn't really show improvement either. The arm is stronger than average, but accuracy is still so-so and I have heard issues with his blocking as well since he is not exactly fleet of foot behind the dish. He still does something great that the Dodgers love which is game calling and framing, so that is a huge plus and these skills, plus his high contact rate together give him at least a high floor and will lead him to the majors someday. Still there is reason to worry and the Dodgers FO supposedly willing to move him in trades is also somewhat of a red flag for me as they don't move potential stars. He still is a damn good prospect and his potential is that of a stellar starting catcher, I just think that rightfully so, his ceiling has been lowered from that potential superstar status that he had entering last season.
     
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  8. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Dodgers also came away with 10 of their top 150. They did not say where they were ranked, but I lined them up according to where they were in our Top 10. Nobody outside the top 10 makes the list, but there are a couple names that could find their way on it with decent years.
     
  9. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    From a BA piece for Top 100 prospects that have something to prove in 2020

    Is Keibert Ruiz Nick Madrigal?

    Like Madrigal, Ruiz plays a valuable defensive position and is nearly impossible to strike out. Both players hit a lot of singles and not a lot of doubles and home runs. Ruiz could end up being a useful MLB catcher even if he’s just a singles hitter, but he’ll be a lot better big leaguer if he drives the ball more as he matures.


    If you are wondering who Nick Madrigal is, he is the best bat on ball prospect in baseball. He almost literally does not strike out(21 times in 679 PA's!!!!). He pairs that with plus speed which helps his high contact/no pop bat play up. Developing more power in his swing, being more selective and maintaining those contact skills would make for a special hitter.
     
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  10. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    From the BA Top 100, 1 former Dodgers prospect is on the list and that is Oneil Cruz at 57. He has massive power, but is having issues with K's and may not stick at SS which would greatly hurt his value. Last year there were 3 former players represented, but Yordan Alvarez has graduated*punches wall* and Yusniel Diaz has fallen off after a mediocre, injury plagued season that saw him max out at AA for the 3rd straight year.
     
  11. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Dodgers had the most top position prospects with 6 from MLB pipeline. Next highest was 4. The Dodgers also were the only team with 5 or more representatives in the top BA Top 100 without a losing season in any of the least 4 years. The teams of 5 or more also had consistently sold off top producers to restock their farm. While Puig was fun, he was not that. Impressive accomplishment for a team that has been routinely drafting at the bottom of the draft for over 7 seasons now. BA said in the chat that the Dodgers are set up along with the Braves to be the most dominant forces for the front half of the new decade.
     
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  12. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    One other note on this. In that same 4 season time frame, the Dodgers have traded 8 former or current Top 100 prospects.

    Jose De Leon (Top 25 at time of trade)
    Willie Calhoun
    Yordan Alvarez
    Jose Peraza
    Frankie Montas
    Yusneil Diaz
    Oneil Cruz
    Zach Lee

    Grant Holmes MAY have appeared on that list at one time, but not 100% sure. Also, not counting guys that graduated prospect status before trade.
     
  13. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    appears for the most part they knew which ones were expendable
     
  14. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Prospects are always lottery tickets, which is why I’ve made the bullets hitting the target analogy a few times in the past about our system. I look at that list and think that teams should be more willing to trade with us as those top prospects we traded have mostly been contributors, some at a high level and others are still rising. The only real busts have been Lee(he was busted by the time we traded him) and Peraza. Alvarez looks like a legit star, Montas has developed into a #2-3 starter, Calhoun finally started to hit when given an extended look, De Leon has been getting some interestingly positive reviews from his rehab, Cruz has been a steadily rising prospect and while Diaz’s value has dipped, he’s still projected to be a solid MLB contributor. This doesn’t even take into account the number of guys further down in our system that have blown up or been traded and emerged as solid contributors. Nobody else in baseball can say that, which is what is so infuriating when teams say “give us your stars or fuck you!”. The Dodgers have an over 50% success rate(should rise in the years ahead) of their traded top prospects becoming MLB contributors and a 25% for them becoming star level. That’s pretty fucking good.
     
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  15. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    BA has Luis Rodriguez #2 in their 16 int'l prospects with a power/speed combo. You can tell that BA is trying to catch up to Pipeline that has released a number of different top prospect categories in recent years. Surpassing BA in notoriety in the process.

    Luis Rodriguez, OF, Dodgers: At 6-foot-2, 175 pounds, Rodriguez is an advanced hitter with a clean swing and at least average raw power that he's shown in games and should become a plus tool. He's an above-average runner with a high baseball IQ that should help him steal bases as well.
     
  16. a2n

    a2n Glue Sniffer

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    Andy Pages going to Angels in a pending deal that still have players unnamed.

    heard he is rising stud. I wonder what Angel is coming back.
     
  17. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Sounds like Pages slotted just outside our Top 20 for a lot of folks that have mentioned the deal. He is someone with superstar upside from the sounds of it, but has some holes, too and he is still a good way from making the big leagues. He has the tools, but the common theme for him was that it was going to be a slow climb to the bigs. He is going to be in the Angels Top 10 according to BA.
     
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  18. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    In the event that the Dodgers are somehow able to swing a trade for Graterol here is where he would slot into our system top lists and MLB

    BP: #3, #33 in Top 101
    BA: #3, #60 in Top 100
    MLBPL: #6, #83 in Top 100
    Bowden: #4, #48 in Top 50
    Sickels: #4, #45 in Top 105, B+ Grade
    Fantrax, #4, #83 in to Top 250

    Everyone says the same thing. Fastball/Slider combo out of pen were filthy. Bowden likes his curve more than his change, rating it as average, but his change is rated below average. There is definitely some effort, but it is not a max effort delivery. Less movement than the insane stuff we saw coming out of May when he was in the pen, but still a lot of it. It will be interesting to see if the club can pull this off or not. If they can continue to add to the top end and not lose much, that would be insane.
     
  19. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Top prospect lists have been updated accordingly
     
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  20. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    With the completion of the deal, MLB Pipeline has updated their Dodgers Top 30 with Andy Pages leaping in and up to #12 in the org.
     
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