Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by ColoradoKidWitGame, Dec 18, 2019.
What a shit show of a trade that would have been...
It made no fucking sense...
The Dodgers have been ranked #3 by Baseball America, one behind the Padres and the Rays leading the way. Man, Wander Franco could be something as everyone is gushing over him. I have said this a couple of times over the last couple years, but there is a solid chance that the Dodgers system sees a large drop next season as the teams top 3, and for 4 of their top 5 prospects are expected to graduate this season. Only Alex Verdugo and Will Smith graduated last year.
Fangraphs dropped their top 120. Some notes from them
They said that Lux is probably the best hitter coming up outside of Wander Franco right now and has his hit tool as a 60 now with a 70 future, plus 60 present power and 70 future. Those are huge numbers and would make him an elite all around hitter as they think he can catch up to elite velo while still recognizing good breaking pitches. The only negative is his throwing which is considered below average and they think he is destined for the OF (which makes trading Jeter Downs a bit more scary) because of it. His bat will play anywhere, but if the yips comeback, they will need to move him out of the IF.
They like May, but don't see him as an ace or #2 like the others do. They think he gives up too much contact and he doesn't have a great variant with his offspeed stuff. They think he needs to really develop a change to take a step in the right direction, but so far the results are lacking. The way some things were scrapped in his big league debut makes them think the club does not like the quality of his secondaries that we rarely saw after his call up. They graded them well, but they think there are variance issues at play. We will see how he improves, but those are some interesting notes that I have not seen until now.
Gray is projected as a #4, but with a decent chance to be much more as he is WAY advanced for someone that is this early into a conversion. He does a great job of commanding his pitches, especially his fastball up in the zone. His slider flashes +, but he has not quite synced it up to be consistent, though it is a solid offering. The change is average, but MLB'ers would destroy it in it's current state as he slows his arm down noticeably. This review would make it hard to see him making the big league roster at any point this season.
Interesting take on Gonsolin as they say he has one of the best change ups in the minors and then proceed to give it just a 55 grade. They talk about deception with his arm angle that somehow brings out more movement than usual for it. They mention that the velo was down in the 91-96 range. That is a lot of range and unless he knows how to use it and this is his own doing, that could be a bit of a red flag. Command is below average, which is normal for a late bloomer, but he will need to do more with it if he is going to be anything more than a back of the rotation starter. They see his most likely outcome in the pen, but he does have the stuff to be a quality starter if he can tighten some things up with even a chance to go as far as being a star front of the rotation starter(though that is a SMALL chance).
FG thinks Ruiz is a lot better than he is getting credit for, but they mentioned that reviews around the game are becoming more and more unfavorable about him. They say the same thing we've been reading in that he makes a lot of contact, but it is bad contact since he has such great hand-eye coordination that he hits a lot of bad balls. They thought he looked very good behind the plate when they have seen him, but once again, their scouts were not positive about him. He needs to be more selective and start making more powerful contact as this paired with decent defensive skills will make him a very good catcher.
They dropped Graterol after everything about his medicals and the feeling that he will no longer be in the rotation. They think he has the stuff to be a frontline starter, but now see him destined for the pen. He was showing a feel for a change before mostly scrapping it after getting the call to the bigs(threw it 3 times, one resulted in a massive bomb). His slider/FB combo make for a high leverage reliever, but he is going to have to correct a release point issue that I have seen mentioned already one other time today. His FB/SL combo are good enough that he could be a starter, but that may not be the best use for him unless he gets that change working as well. The other piece I was reading about him today said that the Dodgers are one of the best clubs at fixing release point issues and if they can get him right, he may have even more upside in the tank. Fingers crossed.
Some other notes from the Fangraphs list as well as the chat.
They are mixed on Jeter Downs, but have him ranked highly. This marked the second time that I saw that the feeling is that he is maxed out build-wise and that is worrisome as he could struggle with good velo. The feeling is that he will hit enough to start, but he will not be elite. He also seems to be destined for 2B or 3B and if Lux's throwing issues are real, plus there is a feeling that Hoese has a higher ceiling, so he could have been the odd man out in short order.
They now have Yusniel Diaz as a bench type player and missed the list entirely, ouch.
They have Jo Adell with a 40 arm... that is baaaad. So he is destined for LF that is kinda taken right now in that org.
They really like former Dodgers prospect Oneil Cruz. They say he has massive upside with two 80 grade tools, but a huge floor too. Still can't believe a prospect like that only netted us Tony fucking Watson. Longenhagen(One of their main contributors) loves him, but scouts don't seem as high.
Andy Pages and Michael Busch were on their list for guys potentially to rise this season due to their pop. He says that Busch was a top 10 pick last year in the eyes of some and the feeling is that he will hit in the big leagues, both for power and contact. The big question mark is if he can play even passable D at 2B and what he saw of him last year, makes him think that Busch can't.
Cartaya could see a rise from the catchers division, but there are questions about his build as he thinks he could be too big for the position. Does admit that he has the highest ceiling of any catcher right now.
MLB.com also had a mini chat today and one thing mentioned was the Dodgers strong quartet of int'l guys that will be interesting to watch. Cartaya and Rodriguez will be in the org's top 10, while Pages will be close behind. Alex De Jesus will be in the early 20's, there are some people around the game that REALLY like him, Callis here says that he has the potential to be a regular at 3B. He gives very high marks for Cartaya and Rodriguez on both sides of the ball.
If there is one thing I can’t fault the FO for is their ability to find and develop talent. Such a huge difference from the McCourt days.
It is honestly incredibly impressive and something I wish the fanbase was more proud of. All the scouting agencies are gushing over what an accomplishment this has been where we consistently draft in the bottom of the rounds, have generally the smallest draft/signing pools and yet have still graduated a near consensus Top 25 prospect each of the last 5+ seasons (Verdugo, Buehler, Bellinger, Urias, Seager, Pederson and Puig) and remained atop prospect boards. This has all come without our Int'l scouting department bearing ANY fruit in that time, which is now about to change as the new crews kids are beginning to come stateside and this mixed with our already well regarded national crew could mean a much more loaded system all together. I have said that I am as frustrated as anyone that we have never won the whole thing, but at the same time, we are set up to potentially contend much longer than most organizations 2-4 year windows.
Someone posted a gif of Cartaya destroying a pitch at camp yesterday. Nothing else to talk about here, but it was nice....
The list has been updated with Keith Law's Top 100 that has 5 Dodger prospects on it and 2 former. He does things a bit differently as they all kind of do. Law gives a lot of value to upside. So while one prospect may have higher floor and likelihood of reaching a more stable level of play, since they are prospects, he will give the upside guy the benefit of the doubt. Some notes from the piece:
He thinks Lux could be a star at SS and has shown that he will probably be a dangerous hitter in the majors. He has shown some of the best contact rates in MiLB the last 2 years and matched with great plate discipline. The arm stuff does not seem to be an issue for him.
We have our highest May showing of the year with him slotting in to #7, naturally it comes with the most glowing report on him. While most people think May has 2 good pitches, Law has seen enough to grade him with 3 present plus pitches and a 4th solid/average change that he will need to develop more to keep lefties off of him. He thinks he is a number 2 pitcher, "with a shot to be a true ace." His ability to pound the zone and generate ground balls is a big reason why he is loved across the board, but Law is the first one to say that he has the stuff to make guys miss and once that kicks in, he can take another leap forward.
All 3 pitchers are going to be getting high marks from Law and Gray is another one. He praises his fastball as being one of the most dominant ones in MiLB even though it does not have elite velo. He has a slider that is above average and plays up due to his great FB. His Change is a work in progress, but he has done a great job of using all of his pitches, improving them and getting more comfortable. He feels his command is going to need to take a big step forward to reach the #2 ceiling that he gives him and the change will altogether need to come along for him to not end up in the pen.
The Gonsolin review was also very positive with him have the floor of a #4 starter with a much higher ceiling if he can improve his command and control. That is not an uncommon issue called into question with Gonsolin, but the feeling is the stuff is there, he just needs to harness it. He feels he has 3 plus pitches in his FB/SPL/SL combo, giving the slider more credit than he is generally given elsewhere. He see's a lot of swing and miss potential in his repertoire and like mentioned at the beginning, he just needs to harness it.
Cartaya making this list at only 18 is pretty impressive and sounds like the reviews are very positive. He said that he possesses elite bat speed and a plus arm behind the plate. His biggest issue is game calling right now, but at his age, that should absolutely improve. He see's him as an eventual middle of the order bat with at least an above average profile defensively.
BA has a piece about DJ Peters this morning. Nothing too exciting, just mentions that it does not sound like he adjusted his mechanics this offseason compared to years past. One thing he is working on is calming down at the plate as he gets a little too worked up and it causes him to over-swing when behind in the count.
i really like gonsolin and peters
but of the two, i think gonsolin is the most likely to reach his potential
peters seems destined to be a dh
Doesn't Peters play good defense?
Sounds like the hang-up is his offense, and I can't see the Dodgers using the DH spot as a repository for guys who haven't reached their potential. They will use that spot wisely.
Idk though. I don't follow milb progress.
BA has the rest of their Dodgers Top prospect list out, plus a list for Sleepers/Breakouts and Top Rookies:
Gavin Lux was selected as our top rookie and this is what they said, "Lux is ready to take over as the Dodgers' everyday second baseman and keeps getting better every year."
Alex De Jesus was selected as breakout prospect "De Jesus looks the part of an impact hitter and has the athleticism to stay on the infield."
Sleeper prospect went to Brandon Lewis, who I am starting to hear more and more about, "Lewis' massive power changes games in an instant and gives him a carrying tool."
Dennis Santana saw his stuff take a big step forward after a late season move to the pen. He has so much movement on his pitches that it is the main reason that he struggles to locate them. Sinker is back to hitting 97, with a slider that is now a true plus pitch and change that is plus when he is locating it.
White can be nearly unhittable when he is on, but he really struggles to repeat his delivery and numerous injuries have cost him significant time. His FB can sit 93-94, topping at 97 with a plus curveball and slider. Too often does his velo take big drops and he will get hit around. They said he had #2 upside, but he is probably best suited for a pen role now.
Rios really settled in last season when he got comfortable at the plate. Sounds like he was pressing after a slow 2018. They think he is 1B only at this point as his D at 3B is fringe average, but his bat is that of a starting 1B and would be a regular with many other organizations with an average hit tool paired with plus power that doesn't strike out at an obscene level.
They have dropped Peters to a reserve OF'er outlook at this point due to inability to limit strikeouts. He has good plate discipline, but he still misses too many hittable pitches. They grade his raw power at a full 80 and he will make pitchers pay for their mistakes. His defense at all 3 OF positions is good enough for the big leagues, but his ceiling now fully depends on fixing his strikeout woes.
They like what Cristian Santana has to offer, but he really struggles with breaking pitches. It is due to that, that he will pounce on fastballs as to not let the count get deep. They don't like that, but it works for him. He matches that with highlight reel plays at 3rd and double plus graded arm.
Not too excited about Estevez and he appears to be here due to him continuing to hit wherever he goes. Defense is poor for a regular and he will need to start hitting with more power.
The organization loves Uceta and give him a ++ in the makeup department. He is a tireless worker that is constantly trying to improve. He has a FB that sits 90-94 with deception with two breaking pitches in a plus changeup and slurve type pitch that elicit a lot of swing and misses. The team thinks he will continue to improve with a back end starter potential as he grows stronger and continues to stay out of the middle of the zone.
The club is comparing Mann to former UTL player, David Freese with the way he handles the bat. Mann was a contact hitter in college that the Dodgers saw as a potential breakout candidate with proper adjustment. They were rewarded in his first full season with club as he broke out as a legit power threat that should keep the K's down. His D at second leave a lot to be desired, but the club sees him as a future starter at 3B or 2B due to his average bat and above average power to all fields.
Everything is still up in the air when it comes to Amaya. He has hit at every level, but with little to no pop. He does a great job of making contact and walking as well, but he is just a singles and doubles hitter at this point. He plays plus defense at shortstop with an above average arm which gives him a route to the big leagues, but they want to see how he fills out before projecting him.
BA and the club views McKinstry as a UTL IF'er that can handle 2B/SS/3B at an at least average level. His rebuilt swing was the reason his power numbers took off in 2019, but do not view him as a 20 HR guy going forward. He does a good job of making lots of contact and should be a valuable bench player down the road and they figure he will run into 10-15 a year.
They are not nearly as high on Vargas as BP is and they think his bat and defense still has a ways to go. They view his hand-eye coordination as "supreme", but he uses that skill to try to drive the ball the other way. It is great that it allows him to let pitches to get deep in the zone and then react, but severely limits his power potential. His defense at 3rd is viewed as merely average, if even that and likely means he is destined for 1B if he can't get things together. If he ends up at 1B, the lack of power could be somewhat problematic.
Copy and paste almost everything you have heard about Yasiel Puig into fellow Cuban Andy Pages and you have your scouting report. Strength, bat speed, plus power, hand eye coordination, ++ cannon for an arm, plays with flair and can be pretty inconsistent on defense and on the basepaths. Maturity is said to be an issue, but this kid has BIG TIME talent. I have not heard nearly the reviews of his attitude as I did Puig, though.
The report on Lewis is that his shoulder issue that shut him down after being drafted is not a problem going forward. Since they have not had a chance to see him, the report is the same as it was in HS. They see him with 2 present plus pitches as well as a developing change and plus control. If he can build up with the club, a 6'6" dude with mid-upper 90's velo and plus control would be something special, but as of now have him as a mid-rotation starter.
Jackson has a murky outlook as he is still very raw, but flashes 4 average pitches, including a FB he works up to 98. Control is his biggest problem going forward and how he executes his pitches will dictate how far he can go.
De Jesus(mentioned above) is still a way away, but has all the make up and tools to be a stud player at SS with 20+ HR pop. He could have to move back to 3B if he can't improve some of his quickness, but the foundation is there for an impact performer.
Very interesting and positive outlook for Luke Raley. They mention that he has ++ power that he has begun to tap into more regularly and the contact has improved as well. These skills taking many more steps forward could bring him into the category as an everyday corner outfielder. He is getting old in the prospect world, but there is still some interesting upside with him if he takes that next step at the plate.
Another not as high on guy as BP is Carrillo. His fastball is tough with it sitting 94-98 and insane movement that sees 16 inches of run on it. Since the power has come so quickly, he has not been able to harness it, so he will need to not walk so many guys in the year ahead, while also improving on his secondaries.
Recent 3rd round pick Ryan Pepiot boasted the best changeup in the draft when he was selected and a fastball that works 93-94. The change flashed ++ this year and his FB was a + pitch, but command/control seems to be a serious problem now and like Mitch White, all 4 of his pitches struggle in the consistency department. The Dodgers have set out a plan of attack for him to improve and they are interested to see how he looks this year. I have heard mixed reports that his FB has even ticked up above this reported valuation and I would love to see what this kid can do this year. A double plus breaking pitch in the hands of our development department is very exciting as they seem to find a way to always find a way to unlock a little bit more out of the pitcher every year.
They see Ortiz as a back of the rotation starter at current, but will need to continue to take steps forward with adding to his build to bring up his velocity. He has a solid feel for all his pitches, now is just going to be about generating more velocity and improving his control a bit more.
Gonzalez is one of those guys that saw improvement after TJ and has seen his velo spike in the year since his return from the surgery. He sits 94-96 and goes up to 98 in relief with deception. His changeup is only average and viewed as his second best pitch, as well as a strike stealing curve and fringy slider he is trying to improve. He has average control which is good out of the pen, but he is very fastball heavy now out of the pen. I am guessing they focus on that slider, ditch the curve and using the changeup on a more rare occasion.
If Peters gets good enough to be a DH, then he will be a regular in the OF as he is pretty good out there. He has a little ways to go though to meet that potential.
Josiah Gray is set to start tomorrow’s spring training game. Early word in camp is that he has been VERY impressive. If he AND May come close to their ceilings, our rotation will be a force.
Keibert Ruiz has not been seen in games yet as the club has been working on a swing change for him from the left side. Get ready to see a bit more loft in his swing this spring when he faces RHP. He has an even worse flat swing from the right side, so it looks like they are going to take this one step at a time.
Oh man... we have some interesting news coming out of Dodgers MiLB camp. This from BA:
Dodgers officials are buzzing about righthander Michael Grove on the backfields at Camelback Ranch. Grove, the Dodgers’ second-round pick in 2018, is up to 97 mph with his fastball while showing increased bite on his breaking ball.
Grove, 23, had Tommy John surgery in college at West Virginia and was still rehabbing when the Dodgers drafted him. He returned to the mound last year and sat 89-93 mph at high Class A Rancho Cucamonga early before bumping up to 92-95 mph in his final few starts.
Now in his second year removed from surgery, Grove’s stuff has ticked up so much that one Dodgers’ front office official predicted he will be the club’s top pitching prospect at this time next year.
The Dodgers also have seen a velocity bump from lefthander Robinson Ortiz. Previously a touch-and-feel lefty, the 20-year-old Dominican attended a Dodgers delivery camp in the offseason and has begun reaching the upper 90s for the first time on the backfields.
Cody Thomas has been crushing this spring, but it is important to remember that players are up against mixed competition. While Thomas has been doing significant damage, he has been doing it against competition that is generally perceived to be HiA-AA pitching. The 1.368 OPS is fun, the 30% K rate is not.
Zach Mckinstry was recently sent to MiLB camp and his spring too has been a great coming out party, but like Thomas it is HiA-AA talent that he has been doing it against. He at least is not striking out as much with a 20% K rate.
Zach Reks and his 1.223 OPS has been doing damage against HiA pitching.
Cristian Santana is at an .881 OPS and it has been against HiA-AA range pitching.
So for basically all these guys, they have been doing damage against lesser competition. This doesn't mean that you aren't allowed to get excited, just something to keep in the back of your mind when these guys are sent down and then are not heard from the rest of the season. McKinstry is the only one with an MLB ETA of this season. Don't forget about what Jake Peter did in camp a couple of years ago and hasn't been heard from since.
Prospects that have been impressing scouts so far in camp. These are scouts from other teams, so the reviews are unbiased. They did this list last year and nailed a few dudes that had surprising breakout campaigns, plus some other decent prospects that have climbed up charts. Though someone whiffed badly on Pete Alonso, haha. Max Muncy was a big riser from the year before that.
Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Scout's Take: "I really like him, even if it’s in a (Ross) Stripling type of role. I do think he’s going to be an impact guy for them. He’s going to bridge the gap that they’ll need because they’re going to go basically fourth and fifth starter by committee during the year. It’s really good stuff. He showed four pitches that he can throw for strikes that are all at least average to above average. The velo is there, he’s on the attack, the changeup looked really good. It’s all there.”
Brusdar Graterol and Zach McKinstry made the honorable mentions.
Separate names with a comma.