MLB NEWS/RUMORS Thread

solid article

Dodgers, Braves both profit from creative, debt-defying deal
by Buster Olney | ESPN Senior Writer — 77 minutes ago

In the midst of the winter meetings, the New York Yankees pulled off a small and inspired trade with the San Diego Padres. Needing rotation help, San Diego was really interested in pitcher Bryan Mitchell, who was at the fringes of the Yankees’ pitching staff and out of options to be sent back to the minors. So the Yankees and Padres arranged what was effectively a purchase of Mitchell: San Diego agreed to take Chase Headley and his $13.5 million salary along with Mitchell, and the two sides dressed it up with San Diego moving journeyman outfielder Jabari Blash to New York.

The Padres got their pitcher, the Yankees got some salary relief. Smart.

But that trade was algebra compared to the calculus that the Braves and Dodgers pulled off Saturday, a blockbuster filled with big names and big salaries and solutions on both sides.

The terms: The Dodgers traded first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, pitchers Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir, and infielder Charlie Culberson -- plus $4.5 million -- in return for outfielder Matt Kemp.

The list of fixed problems is long:

1. By doing this, swapping three high-priced veterans for one, the Dodgers addressed their luxury-tax problem. In 2018, Gonzalez ($22.6 million), Kazmir ($17.67 million) and McCarthy ($11.5 million) were set to make a total of $52 million, in the last season of their respective contracts; Kemp is set to make $21.75 million in each of the next two years. With the Dodgers kicking in $4.5 million, the overall swap of money is equal, but because the savings is front-loaded for the Dodgers, they slide under the 2018 competitive-balance tax of $197 million.

The Braves will effectively swap some financial flexibility to the Dodgers, who, if they remain below the threshold in 2018 -- and knowing the discipline of baseball ops chief Andrew Friedman, that’s a lock -- will have a tax rate of 20 percent rather than 50 percent if they go over in 2019. They’ll have more money to spend, if they choose, for the historic free-agent class of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado et al next fall.

2. The Dodgers had a problem with Gonzalez that has been resolved. The longtime star suffered injuries last year, lost his everyday job at first base to Cody Bellinger during the season and was in the middle of some tension during the postseason. Bellinger is a young star and Gonzalez is in the twilight of his career, and it was time for the relationship to end -- which Gonzalez recognized. He had to waive his no-trade clause to make the accounting of this deal happen, and now, after the Braves pass him through waivers, he’ll have a chance to be a free agent and find a better opportunity than he would have had in L.A.

3. The Braves had a problem with Kemp. The 33-year-old has some of the worst defensive metrics among outfielders, and Atlanta finished last in the majors in defensive runs saved in left field. SunTrust Park’s dimensions are somewhat similar to those of Yankee Stadium, with the biggest part of the outfield in left field and left-center, and at this stage of Kemp’s career, he was a terrible fit. The Braves really couldn’t trade him in a player-for-player deal, coming off an injury-shortened, slightly above-average offensive season.

But now they dump him on the Dodgers, who seem destined to release Kemp before the start of spring training because he doesn’t fit with them, either. Atlanta will replace him with a much better defensive left fielder who has a better chance of helping the Braves’ young pitchers.

4. In McCarthy, the Braves add a veteran starter who might effectively replace R.A. Dickey in their rotation. Last season, the 34-year-old McCarthy pitched 92⅔ innings in 19 games and he threw effectively, walking 27 and posting an adjusted ERA+ of 105. Kazmir wasn’t healthy and his velocity was way down last year, but he has been working on rebuilding, something he has done in the past; for the Braves, he’s a lottery ticket.

5. The Braves got a shortstop they needed in Culberson. The consensus within the Braves organization this past summer, before the arrival of Alex Anthopoulos, was that shortstop Dansby Swanson was rushed to the big leagues in the summer of 2016. Back then, the Braves were preparing for the move to SunTrust and were trying to signal a turnaround for patrons, and Swanson is a Georgia native and a former No. 1 overall pick.

He struggled at the outset of 2017 but played better later in the season. But if the front office feels it wants to give Swanson more time in the minors for fine-tuning, Culberson is a perfect candidate.

Anthopoulos worked for the Dodgers in recent seasons, and when the Braves hired him in November, he was well-armed with a deep knowledge of L.A.’s challenges and concerns; he was perfectly positioned to pull off this trade with Friedman.

• The Dodgers-Braves deal is a classic example of the value of conversation, of relationships and of what can be accomplished at the winter meetings. The two sides began talking before baseball’s gathering in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, then held a larger, conceptual meeting Wednesday before wrapping up the deal on Saturday.

This is why new Marlins honcho Derek Jeter should have been at the winter meetings and why he should be there in future years if he wants to credibly operate a baseball operations department. Showing up is part of the gig, because you never know what conversation, what meeting, what relationship will spark a larger, greater idea. If he’d rather focus on the business side -- and maybe that’s where his true passion is -- then he can hand the reins of the baseball work to president of baseball operations Michael Hill, give him a budget and be there to sign off.

 

agreed
in signing stanton, they essentially filled the need of another bat
if anything, they'll probably focus on pitching for the next year or two

 

true

 

Dodgers are in even better position to get Bryce Harper after Matt Kemp trade
by Jeff Passan | Yahoo MLB columnist — 3 hours ago

On days like Saturday, when the second-biggest leviathan in baseball wheedled its way into next offseason’s free agent frenzy with a touch of accounting magic, and in months like December, when the largest monster of all offered up a bag of magic beans and in return snagged the reigning National League MVP, it’s entirely fair for those sandwiched between the coasts to throw up their hands like an emoji shrug come to life and curse the sport down to its tawdry soul. This game, man. It can break your heart even in the cold of winter.

Only baseball can offer a trade of five players in which none of them really matters. When the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday foisted Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Charlie Culberson and some cash on the Atlanta Braves for Matt Kemp – whom the Dodgers had dumped three years ago on San Diego, which eventually dumped him on the Braves, precipitating this triangle of dumps – they were nothing but contracts, numbers, conduits to the real purpose of the deal: The Dodgers’ low-key right-swiping Bryce Harper.

That happened in the aftermath of the New York Yankees pickpocketing Giancarlo Stanton from the Miami Marlins pretty much because they can, and the roars and the cries and the caterwauls for baseball to adopt a salary cap started anew. Which didn’t register as altogether logical, seeing as these moves by the Dodgers and Yankees actually were part of plans for each to dip their payrolls beneath $200 million this season in spite of annual revenues that creep toward an estimated half-billion dollars annually.

When one remembers the complexities of baseball, it starts to make a little more sense. The goal of getting under the luxury-tax threshold of $197 million this season is to immunize both teams from severe penalties when they exceed it in future years. Make no mistake, that excess is coming. The 2017-18 offseason is both teams recognizing their ability to weaponize financial advantages going forward. The 2018-19 offseason will be them emptying both barrels.

To understand how this works, and why Saturday’s trade matters even if the players don’t, one must first get a handle on Major League Baseball’s financial strictures. The luxury tax – known throughout the game as the competitive-balance tax, or the CBT – is MLB’s first line of defense in trying to limit spending in an uncapped sport. Its floor increases slightly each season. The Dodgers have exceeded it the last five seasons. The Yankees have paid the CBT all 15 years of its current incarnation.

As such, both teams are taxed at a higher rate. By dipping beneath 2018’s $197 million mark – a number that includes the average annual value of all 25-man roster players’ contracts, the salaries of the 15 others on the 40-man roster, any money sent to other teams to facilitate trades, awards bonuses and about $13.5 million in benefits – the Dodgers and Yankees could reset their numbers from 50 percent-plus on overages to as low as 20 percent.

Perhaps it’s a bit much to say going under the CBT threshold will convince the Dodgers and Yankees to pursue Harper and Manny Machado, among dozens of other free agents in arguably the greatest class ever, come November 2018. Even if they can’t pull off the gambit, that won’t stop the thirst. Savings that can be in the tens of millions of dollars is nice. It just doesn’t stand in the way of a super-team.

Still, to see the effect, imagine the Dodgers carrying two different payrolls in the 2019 season: $250 million and $275 million. If the Dodgers can reset this year, the taxes on those salaries in 2019 would be levied as such: 20 percent for every dollar between $206 million (the new CBT threshold) and $226 million; 32 percent for every dollar between $226 million and $246 million; and 62.5 percent for every dollar above $246 million. The total tax on a $250 million payroll: $12.9 million. And for a $275 million payroll: $28.5 million.

Without getting underneath the threshold this season, the Dodgers would be paying rates of 50 percent, 62 percent and 95 percent on the overages. The $250 million payroll’s tax: $26.2 million. And the $275 million payroll’s: $49.95 million in penalties alone. On top of that, any team that exceeds the highest threshold loses 10 spots off its first-round pick in the draft the season after, another penalty that makes a number of executives with high payrolls to argue that salary-cap complaints are misguided. The penalties in place, they say, make it tantamount to a cap.

The renewed call for one coincides with the Dodgers and Yankees being two particularly well-run teams. Each has developed a number of young impact players. Both know how to play well on the margins and avoid the allure of past-their-prime stars. Nothing terrifies teams in baseball more than competent front offices with the Dodgers’ and Yankees’ revenues.

And yet nobody should forget the impetus behind a salary cap is not how individual teams spend but ensuring competitive balance exists. Seeing as the Yankees last won the World Series in 2009 and the Dodgers in 1988, well, if there’s an imbalance, it’s not doing a ton for either come October. Baseball’s variance is too great for a dynastic run the likes of the New England Patriots’ in the hard-capped NFL.

Salary caps don’t create competitive balance; they simply create the illusion of it, as if payroll would be the sole determinant of competence otherwise. Salary caps do little more than drive down money given to players and ensure it goes right into the pockets of ownership. The revenue differences between, say, the Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays? It’s dwarfed when comparing the Dallas Cowboys to the Buffalo Bills. Which means the excess money goes back to the Cowboys, enriching their owners, helping them grow into an even larger juggernaut and fomenting even more financial imbalance without bothering to share in the spoils with the players. The salary cap is no savior. It’s a tool to control the players – the reason people watch the games.

Seeing the Dodgers and Yankees trying to hold themselves to an artificial mark, then, is slightly discomfiting while entirely understandable. This is the collective bargaining agreement the union that represents the players negotiated with MLB. It makes that $197 million mark awfully alluring. The Yankees, even after trading for Stanton and signing CC Sabathia, find themselves around $180 million, with enough leeway for another move or two this winter.

That the Dodgers are two years separated from a $291 million payroll and today carry a CBT number in the $183 million-or-so range is a testament to their offseason goal. After reaching Game 7 of the World Series, the Dodgers believed they could replicate that and achieve a reset. Even though the trade with Atlanta was salary-neutral, the benefits this year are immense.

Remember, CBT payroll is based on the average annual value of contracts. While the 2018 salaries of Gonzalez, Kazmir and McCarthy add up to $47.5 million, their combined AAV is $50 million. The two years remaining on Kemp’s deal are for $43 million, and the Dodgers kicked in $4.5 million extra to cover the money difference. Kemp’s AAV, on the other hand, is $20 million. With this trade, the Dodgers kept their out-of-pocket payroll the exact same while shaving $25.5 million off their CBT number and dipping beneath the threshold.

Staying there won’t be easy. They need to fill out their bullpen. They may want some room for midseason acquisitions. The Dodgers’ desire to stay under $197 million could theoretically influence how they use their players. Even after dealing McCarthy and Kazmir – Atlanta believes McCarthy can be a good mid-rotation starter and trade asset and freed up an outfield spot for uber-prospect Ronald Acuna with Kemp, which is why the idea made sense for the Braves, too – the Dodgers boast a number of starting pitchers. With Kenta Maeda likely to make millions in easily achievable incentives as a starting pitcher, the Dodgers could move him to the bullpen with a rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu and their choice of young starters, from Walker Buehler to Trevor Oaks to Julio Urias, who is scheduled to return from shoulder surgery.

They could deal catcher Yasmani Grandal as well, with his salary expected to be around $10 million, giving them more leeway. If it takes attaching a prospect for a team to agree to that, so be it; the Dodgers escaped the mess that was Kazmir and McCarthy’s deals – a combined 296 innings of 4.47 ERA baseball for $96 million – without having to cede one.

And the failure of those signings can’t go unnoticed here. The advantage of the Dodgers and Yankees isn’t just what they can buy when they’re spending. It’s what they can get rid of when they’re not. Consider this ridiculousness: In addition to Matt Kemp’s $21.5 million salary, the Dodgers will send $3.5 million to San Diego … to help the Padres pay for Kemp’s contract. Yes, the Dodgers are now paying for Kemp twice, which sounds like a metaphor come to life.

When dealing in this salary stratosphere, oddities almost seem normal. It’s what makes picturing Harper in a Dodgers uniform possible. Los Angeles has no long-term commitments to any outfield spot; the Yankees, with the Stanton deal clogging their outfield, aren’t nearly the ideal destination they once were. The Phillies and White Sox and all the other teams with minimal commitments wield financial might. The Dodgers and Yankees have that, recent success and the magnetism of history.

Slipping beneath the luxury tax is, in the end, merely a small piece of the financial puzzle for baseball’s behemoths. It’s also one that shows ownership the sort of creativity, resourcefulness and dedication that wins votes of confidence when seeking the opportunity to lavish hundreds of millions of dollars on one player.

For the rest of the baseball world, which peers toward the oceans with envy, this is a frustrating reality, one in which tens of millions of dollars get passed around in some shell game that ultimately behooves the team with so many advantages already due to its geography. That may not be fair, and that may not be right, but that’s real. And neither the Dodgers nor the Yankees – trying to meet head on in October, each aware how difficult that will be even as they endeavor to build the biggest, best team ever – will apologize for it, either.

 

Andrew Friedman on Dodgers plans for Matt Kemp
by Hunter Thompson | Dodgers Nation — 2 hours ago

In case you haven’t seen, the Dodgers made a 5-player trade on Saturday that brought back Matt Kemp. The main reason the Dodgers made the deal was to create financial flexibility. As we’ve heard all offseason, the Dodgers goal was to get under the luxury tax threshold during the winter.

It appears that they accomplished their goal with this trade.

Andy McCullough ✔@McCulloughTimes
The Dodgers now expect to stay under the luxury tax for 2018.
They lack obvious needs and like the composition of their roster.
They will be open for business next winter, when Free Agent
Armageddon comes.
12:18 PM - Dec 16, 2017 ​

The big question after the trade was the plan for Matt Kemp. Will he play for the Dodgers next season? Will he be flipped? Most people close to the situation expect the latter. Andrew Friedman was non-committal when asked about the plan.

Andy McCullough ✔@McCulloughTimes
Andrew Friedman on the team's plans for Matt Kemp: "That's
a good question. Obviously, there's a lot of winter left."
2:13 PM - Dec 16, 2017

J.P. Hoornstra ✔@jphoornstra
Andrew Friedman said he's talked to Matt Kemp. "I was very
honest and open with him about what the future might hold."
2:15 PM - Dec 16, 2017 ​

If Matt Kemp were to play for the Dodgers in 2018, he would likely play part-time in left field. Kemp is a far cry from the center-fielder he was during his first run in Los Angeles. After gaining some bad weight, Kemp has become a defensive liability. The 33-year old still swings a good bat, but it’s nowhere near where it was during his near-MVP campaign in 2011.

Ken Rosenthal was first to report that the Dodgers will likely trade or release Matt Kemp. Ken Gurnick also noted that if the Dodgers could flip Kemp, it could open up the possibility of adding another outfielder with the money saved.

Ken Gurnick ✔@kengurnick
The Dodgers are just as likely to flip Matt Kemp as they are to
keep him. Payroll flexibility might make outfielders Lorenzo
Cain or Andrew McCutchen in play
12:00 PM - Dec 16, 2017 ​

Lorenzo Cain or Andrew McCutchen could both be difference makers for the Dodgers if they could add one. Cain is coming off a season which saw him slash .300/.363/.440 with 15 homers and 26 stolen bases. Cain is also a true center fielder, something that the Dodgers lacked in 2017. The 31-year old would come at a high cost, but could be just the thing to push the Dodgers over the line next season.

McCutchen is also coming off a solid year in which he slashed .279/.363/.486 with 28 home runs and 88 RBIs. McCutchen isn’t the Gold Glove center fielder that he used to be, but is less of a liability in the field than Kemp. Cain and McCutchen represent immediate options for the Dodgers, but I think it’s more likely that they’ll wait to use their savings until next season’s monster free agent class.

If the Dodgers have money to spend after the 2018 season, they could end up with with like Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. Josh Donaldson and Charlie Blackmon may be less talked about than the other two, but could also represent big upgrades for the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw can opt out next season, so the Dodgers will have to set aside money to re-sign him as well.

The plan for Kemp is still uncertain, but it’s more than likely that the Dodgers will try to move him. If they’re unable to do so, they could release him or put him in a left field platoon. We’ll have to wait and see what happens with the former Dodgers star. For now, the Dodgers still walk away from the trade winners. The financial flexibility they gained could help them improve their team in a multitude of ways.

 

Dodgers are now ~$21M under luxury tax, but more needed to make a 2018 splash
by Chad Moriyama | Dodgers Digest — 2 hours ago

Back when the Dodgers were spending like $300 million a year on players, the team was much easier to write about because the luxury tax barely needed to be given a second thought. Pesky things like payroll limitations just weren’t something we needed to factor in, barring the ridiculous. But as Stan Kasten has always promised, the Dodgers are reining spending in a bit now, or at least until they could reset the luxury tax penalties. That seemed obvious after they passed on Giancarlo Stanton, but with the recent blockbuster Charlie Culberson trade, the mandate to get below the luxury tax in order to spend freely again became clearer than ever.

How much against the luxury tax did the Dodgers save yesterday?
While the trade definitely saved on payouts to players in 2018, that wasn’t the motivation. Rather it was shedding money from the luxury tax number that was of importance. Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, and Culberson would’ve counted around ~$50 million against the Dodgers in 2018, whereas Matt Kemp and the cash sent to the Braves costs ~$21 million. That saves the team about $29 million for the upcoming season, which not only allows them to reset the luxury tax, but also affords them room to maneuver in 2018.

How much under the luxury tax are the Dodgers now?
To make a long story short, when Eric Stephen did his calculations to find what the Dodgers luxury tax number was at the moment, he came up with ~$175 million. When I did my own computing, I came up with ~$176 million, which could honestly come down to rounding choices. So with the luxury tax threshold checking in at $197 million, that means the Dodgers have ~$21 million to work with.

So the Dodgers can go out and make a splashy signing now, right?
Er, not quite. Remember, the Dodgers likely at least want further upgrades in the pen (Tom Koehler is already being added), so that’s going to occupy some of the room. Additionally, performance bonuses count against the luxury tax. Clayton Kershaw finishing Top 3 in Cy Young Award voting seems like a given, so that’s gonna cost between $500,000 and $1 million. Meanwhile, Kenta Maeda‘s contract is great for the Dodgers, but it also means Maeda is almost a lock for $6 million to $8 million should he stay healthy. Plus, this front office has always made significant moves at the deadline, and they likely want to continue to do so, but that’s something they can’t do if they exhaust all room below the luxury tax now.

Fine, but this still sets the Dodgers up for the future, right?
Yes. Next year the Dodgers lose Yasmani Grandal, Logan Forsythe, and Hyun-Jin Ryu to free agency, and Kershaw likely opts out. Assuming the Dodgers don’t want to incur the harshest penalties at over $247 million, the Dodgers should still have over $100 million, which obviously leaves plenty of room to re-sign Kershaw and go after somebody like Bryce Harper. Especially true since the Dodgers would only really have a need at second base besides re-signing Kershaw.

Also, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of the Dodgers somehow miraculously moving Kemp with prospects and/or trading Grandal to go after additionally salary in trades. Ken Gurnick named Andrew McCutchen (~$15 million) and Lorenzo Cain (~$17 million), but honestly with extra room it’s possible to go after any player on a contract that isn’t Stanton-esque (~$25 million). Say Chris Archer (~$4 million), Gerrit Cole (~$7 million), Christian Yelich (~$7 million) or something of that sort.

—————————————————————

While yesterday’s trade may not provide the splash Dodgers fans have wanted all off-season in terms of adding to the 2018 squad, with a bit more work, it definitely opens up possibilities for further additions either before Spring Training or at the Trade Deadline. Furthermore, it injects a bit of optimism into the future after the team basically took L after L this offseason. Assuming the ownership will once again okay going over the luxury tax in 2019, the Dodgers can now truly spend like one of the richest teams in baseball next off-season without worrying much in terms of penalties.

Seems like it’s gonna be an interesting year ahead of keeping track of the luxury tax number, followed by a year of figuring out exactly who the Dodgers want to add. Regardless, the Dodgers are undoubtedly setup for the future better today then they were yesterday, and it’s something to get optimistic about at least.

 

Friedman refers to trade with Braves as necessary prelude
by Matthew Moreno | Dodger Blue — 21 minutes ago

Once it became clear Shohei Ohtani would be posted this offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers were identified as one the teams that figured to contend for his signature. When the Miami Marlins made Giancarlo Stanton available, the Dodgers were viewed as the favorite to trade for the slugger.

Ohtani wound up signing with the Los Angeles Angels, in a surprising decision, and Stanton was ultimately traded to the New York Yankees after vetoing deals with the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals. The Dodgers’ reported interest in both players represented a dichotomy.

Los Angeles was limited to offering Ohtani a $300,000 signing bonus, which was well below what the two-way superstar could fetch on the open market as a typical free agent.

Meanwhile, with Stanton, the Dodgers were said to be reluctant to take on the bulk of his remaining contract. That didn’t align with the Marlins’ focus to shed salary, with their return in the trade taking a back seat.

Further indication of the Dodgers’ insistence on getting below the luxury tax threshold for the 2018 season came Saturday. In one fell swoop, they got out from under $47.5 million in salary by trading Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy, along with Charlie Culberson, to the Atlanta Braves.

In return, the Dodgers received a familiar name in Matt Kemp. Friedman referred to the trade as one that was necessary for the club with respect to future transactions, per Bill Plunkett of the Southern California News Group:

“Obviously one of the main considerations in this deal were economic. But they’re part of the bigger picture, the longer-term plan, and it’s a necessary strategic part of moves yet to come. Whether that’s this offseason, in July or next year, this move allows for increased flexibility going forward.”​

Kemp is owed $21.5 million in each of the next two seasons. Considering his diminished skills and lack of positional flexibility, he’s a candidate to be released or traded a second time. Regardless of what unfolds with Kemp, the Dodgers are well-positioned for next winter.

The mega-free agency class is expected to include the likes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, plus Clayton Kershaw if he elects to utilize the opt-out clause in his contract. This past season was the Dodgers’ fifth consecutive in which they faced an escalating luxury tax.

By resetting their bottom line and getting below the $197 million threshold for next season, the Dodgers would only face a 20 percent tax on every dollar above the threshold in 2019.