DODGERS Is Puig MLB's worst baserunner?

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Is Yasiel Puig baseball's worst baserunner?
By David Schoenfield | ESPN.com -- December, 23, 2014

(Hal) McRae was the most aggressive baserunner of the 1970s, a man who left home plate thinking "double" every time he hit the ball. The rule allowing the second base umpire to call a double play if the runner from first leaves the baseline to take out the pivot man is known informally as the McRae Rule. He was probably thrown out on the bases, I would guess, 40 times a season. He took the lessons of the early days of the Big Red Machine, and transmitted them to the Kansas City Royals, becoming the unquestioned clubhouse leader of the team that dominated the division from 1976 through 1985.

-- Bill James, "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract"​

When Bill James wrote that, he didn't have to access to all the detailed historical play-by-play data -- compiled by researchers at Retrosheet and available at websites such as Baseball-Reference.com -- that we have now.

As it turns out, he was a little off on his guess about McRae. McRae did get thrown out a lot, but nothing close to 40 times a season. I don't think any manager would put up with a player who got thrown out once every four games for long. McRae's highest total came in 1978, when he made 18 outs on the bases, including nine at home plate. If you include caught stealing -- I'm not sure if James factored them in, but it doesn't sound like he did -- McRae's total was 26.

Here are McRae's year-by-year totals for outs on the bases during his prime years with the Royals, not including the times he was caught stealing:

1974: 5
1975: 10
1976: 12
1977: 10
1978: 18
1979: 12
1980: 7
1981: 4
1982: 9
1983: 9

So, is 18 a lot? I'll get to that in a moment, but I thought of James' quote about McRae this past season while watching some of Yasiel Puig's baserunning adventures. Like this one.

As it turns out, Puig led the majors with 15 outs on the bases in 2014, according to Baseball-Reference. Puig also got picked off three times, and those don't appear to be part of his outs-on-the-bases total. (He also got picked off/caught stealing a fourth time, which is already accounted for in his caught stealing total. He was just 11-for-18 stealing bases. Really, keeping track of baserunning statistics is somewhat complicated.)

Is Puig the Hal McRae of his generation? Obviously, Puig's aggressive baserunning leads to some positive results, like stretching this single into a double. But are the bases gained worth the bases lost?

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Obviously, or maybe not so obviously, the worst baserunners are the slowest ones, even if they don't get caught trying to stretch a single into a double or going from first to third on a single. They don't get caught because they never try for the extra base. Billy Butler of the Royals went first-to-third on a single just once in 31 tries in 2014 (the league average was 29 percent) and scored from second on a base hit just once in 10 opportunities. According to a measurement of baserunning from Baseball Info Solutions, Butler's net gain on the bases was minus-31 -- including double plays grounded into. (Baserunning gain is defined as "the total of all the types of extra baserunning advances minus the triple penalty for all the baserunning outs compared with what would be expected based on the MLB averages.") That tied with Alex Avila of the Tigers as the worst total in the majors.

Compare that to Ben Revere of the Phillies, who had the majors' highest net gain in 2014 at plus-54. Some of that is his stolen base value but he went first-to-third successfully eight out of 22 times and second to home 16 out of 24.

The slow guys don't really get called out that often even though they're hurting their team. According to Baseball-Reference's evaluation, Revere's baserunning was valued at 9.4 runs, topping Jose Reyes (9.1) and Dee Gordon (9.0) for most valuable baserunner of 2014. Casey McGehee, who grounded into 31 double plays, tops the worst list at minus-6.8 runs. Butler ranked 11th at minus-4.4 runs. Here is the bottom 10 for 2014:

1. McGehee, -6.8 runs
2. Victor Martinez, -6.4
3. Avila, -6.1
4. Brian McCann, -5.4
5. Alberto Callaspo, -5.1
6. Brayan Pena, -5.1
7. David Ortiz, -5.0
8. Matt Kemp, -4.9
9. Albert Pujols, -4.7
10. Adrian Gonzalez, -4.6

A bunch of slow guys plus one player, Kemp, who isn't regarded as a plodder. Kemp took the extra base 41 percent of the time, right at the league average of 40 percent, but a far cry from the 62 percent rate at which he advanced back in 2011. It's pretty clear that he's lost some of his speed, which is probably one reason his defensive metrics are also horrible. Kemp made nine outs on the bases, was picked off twice, was just 8-for-13 stealing bases and grounded into 21 double plays.

Since 1950 -- the first season for which there is complete play-by-play data -- Baseball-Reference's worst baserunning season belongs to Randy Milligan of the 1991 Orioles, who rated at minus-11.2 runs. That year, Milligan made six outs on the bases, was picked off twice, went 0-for-5 as a base stealer, grounded into 23 double plays and took the extra base just 25 percent of the time. Oddly, he had taken the extra base in 53 percent of his opportunities the year before, so he either lost his "speed" overnight or got injured.

The 10 worst baserunning seasons since 1950:

1. Randy Milligan, 1991 Orioles, -11.2 runs
2. Cecil Fielder, 1993 Tigers, -9.6 runs
3. J.T. Snow, 2000 Giants, -9.4 runs
4. Paul Konerko, 2006 White Sox, -9.3 runs
5. Dave Parker, 1985 Reds, -9.3 runs
6. Magglio Ordonez, 2008 White Sox, -8.7 runs
7. Kenji Johjima, 2007 Mariners, -8.5 runs
8. Harmon Killebrew, 1970 Twins, -8.5 runs
9. Billy Butler, 2010 Royals, -8.1 runs
10. Mike Piazza, 1996 Dodgers, -8.0 runs

No surprises on that list, which includes a bunch of big, slow guys who grounded into a lot of double plays and rarely took the extra base. Fielder took the extra base just 19 percent of the time in 1993, Snow 21 percent in 2000, Johjima just 17 percent in 2007. Parker was a little faster but was 5-for-18 stealing bases.

* * * *

That's one list. What I was really more interested in was the McRae/Puig issue. Is Puig hurting or helping his team on the bases? His net gain in 2014 was minus-12 bases, and that's despite grounding into just seven double plays. Puig was perhaps a little more cautious on the bases in 2014, as his extra-base advancement percentage fell from 58 in 2013 to 47. Now, that net gain isn't factoring in singles that were stretched into doubles, or doubles into triples, which is why measuring baserunning can be difficult (although Baseball Info Solutions does track this, as well).

McRae, for example, did hit a lot of doubles, twice leading his league and ranking in the top five six other times. How many of those were obtained by sheer hustle? Still, Baseball-Reference rates McRae as a negative baserunner for his career.

As it turns out, 18 outs on the bases is a lot ... but only the second-highest total in a season since 1950. In 2004, Chone Figgins of the Angels made 20 outs on the bases: five at first base, four at second, four at third and seven at home. He also got picked off once, which isn't included in his 13 caught stealings. Figgins did steal 34 bases that year and had an extra-base advancement rate of 62 percent; still, his overall baserunning value that year comes out to zero runs. All the good stuff was cancelled out by the additional outs.

Most outs on the bases since 1950:

1. Chone Figgins, 2004: 20
2. Hal McRae, 1978: 18
3. Carl Yastrzemski, 1963: 17
4. Yonder Alonso, 2012: 17
5. Dick Allen, 1965: 16
6. Pete Rose, 1977: 16
7. Vince Coleman, 1986: 16
8. Albert Pujols, 2012: 16

Then a bunch of guys at 15, including Puig in 2014.

That was the only year McRae led the league in outs on the bases. In a fun twist, his son Brian had the most outs on the bases in 1993.

Rose deserves special mention here. He led the majors in outs on the bases in 1977, 1980 and 1981. He was old by then, and apparently in denial that he had lost a step or three. In 1977, he was also thrown out at home plate 11 times, the highest single-season total since 1980.

And honorable mention for worst baserunner: Harold Reynolds, a player from the Mariners of my youth. Reynolds was pretty fast. He led the American League in 1987 with 60 stolen bases -- but he was caught stealing 20 times. He made 13 outs on the bases, including seven at home plate. He was also picked off 10 times, seven of which weren't included in the caught stealing total. Reynolds led the league in steals but his overall baserunning value was minus-3 runs.

He was even worse the next season, when he was just 35-for-64 stealing bases, made seven outs on the bases (four at home) and got picked off seven times. His baserunning value was minus-7 runs.

Is Puig the worst baserunner of all time? No. Does he make a few too many mental mistakes on the bases and hurt his team? Yes. But perhaps his future as a network analyst is secure.

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Great read.

To me, his baserunning is the worst part of his game. I love how he takes the extra base and what not, but he's not a good base stealer by any means. He gets into some trouble getting picked off here and there but I feel like that's not the main problem as others will run into that problem if they get on base a lot, but I would really like if he improved his base stealing success.

Doesn't necessarily mean he needs to attempt more steals, just increase his stolen base percentage. Almost like you'd rather him steal 21 out of 30 rather then 25 out of 40 or so.

 

totally agree
and not just on base stealing
but therein lies his greatest strength and weakness -- aggressiveness
and it's really a double-edged sword...
have him tone it down a notch, and he runs into less outs
but he also doesn't turn as many singles into doubles, go first to third, etc
personally i believe a lot of his problems are related to maturity
once he learns to get a handle on his emotions... watch out

 

Yeah I can agree with that.

 

agreed
and i like buster olney for the most part
but asshats like saxon and that pompous ass stark suck