Matt Kemp is going to be here for awhile...

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by doyerfan, Nov 15, 2011.

  1. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

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    http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/n...1114&content_id=25968010&vkey=news_la&c_id=la

    The Dodgers and outfielder Matt Kemp have reached a preliminary agreement on a franchise-record eight-year, $160 million contract extension pending the passing of a physical exam, according to a baseball source.
    The deal would be the biggest in franchise history, eclipsing the seven-year, $105 million deal signed by right-hander Kevin Brown in 1998.
    However, at a Dodgers Dream Foundation event Monday in Compton, Calif., Kemp was mum on the subject, unwilling to make anything official just yet.
     
  2. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

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    Some don't like it, but it needed to be done. A good amount of national writers liked it, FWIW, and I mean, it's what we wanted and here it is.
     
  3. rube

    rube DSP Legend Staff Member Administrator

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    why dont people like it?
     
  4. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse 2020 World Champions Staff Member Administrator

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    I like it.
     
  5. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse 2020 World Champions Staff Member Administrator

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    Because they're giant fans?
     
  6. LAdiablo

    LAdiablo descarado

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    i think this is the best contract i have seen the dodgers do in like, ever.
     
  7. Doughty8

    Doughty8 DSP Legend

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    The length of contract would be the only issue I would have but only a miniscule issue.
     
  8. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

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    Because it's 4 years too long for a player that relies too heavily on BABIP to be successful
     
  9. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

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    It's going to be bad, but it had to be done. If the Dodgers didn't sign Kemp to this extension, someone else would have and we'd have Melky Cabrera as our CF in 2013, or some shithead from the minors
     
  10. LAdiablo

    LAdiablo descarado

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    if he is performing at 60 percent of his current pace after four years, this contract will be a bargain.
     
  11. Shaw

    Shaw DSP Legend

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    I don't like it. I love it.
     
  12. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

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    No it won't, because 60% of below average defense in CF is terrible defense in LF lol
     
  13. Shaw

    Shaw DSP Legend

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    I think he was going for 60% of offensive production here :p
     
  14. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

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    Simply put, Kemp is a player that relies heavily on his speed to get hits. The average player has a .300 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) while Kemp's is .350+. That's fine for now, but that number goes down as you slow down, which he inevitably will when he hits his 30's, and he'll be more like 2010 Kemp. Hopefully I'm wrong though :)
     
  15. Shaw

    Shaw DSP Legend

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    Yeah, a high BABIP can be a bit of a red flag since it's hard to maintain one so high. It'll be interesting to see how he matures as a hitter to adjust for it.

    Here are some fun stats (hey, it's fun to dream):

    Kemp needs to average 156 hits per year over the next eight years to catch Willie Davis. Over the last four seasons, Kemp has averaged 175 hits per season.​

    To catch Reese, Kemp needs to score 109 runs per year for eight years, or 874 runs. The most runs ever by a Dodger in an eight-year period is 875, scored by Duke Snider from 1949-1956.​

    With runs and RBI records in Los Angeles right around 1,000, those are easy pickings for Kemp. But for the franchise mark, he will need to average 102 RBI per season over the life of the contract.​

    To catch The Duke, Kemp needs just under 33 home runs per year.​

     
  16. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

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    If Kemp lowers his Ks, all will fall into place. That BABIP can't stay that high, but with a lower K rate he can maintain the other numbers he put up with a dip in his BABIP

    Of course, for a guy to lower his K rate when its been above 20% his whole career is a lot to ask for.
     
  17. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

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    Yeah that's not gonna happen, especially not enough to affect anything.
     
  18. LAdiablo

    LAdiablo descarado

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    thanks shaw. hey vrp wants to hate on the contract its cool. we watched matt grow up in front of our eyes and i am thrilled the dodgers had the intelligence to lock him up. if they had done it with the last great offensive threat we might have another title. beltre will be in the hof and a focused kemp has more potential than that. argue the numbers however you want. matt kemp is a star with massive upside.
     
  19. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

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    I don't want to hate on it, I'm as big a Matt Kemp fan as anyone here, I'm thrilled he's gonna be a Dodger for the next 8 years, but I just don't think we should look at this like some sort of steal from the Dodgers end. There are real risks involved in any long term 9 figure deal, particularly with a player like Kemp.
     
  20. LAdiablo

    LAdiablo descarado

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    so do you see some other option? the kid played his ass off and he gets paid. i would gamble on a homegrown player that has shown he can handle the pressure of hollywood and adjusted to it. and what do mean with a player like kemp?
     

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