NEWS/RUMORS/AROUND MLB Thread (Oct 2016 - Feb 2017)

MLB silly season is trying to compete with NFL

 

I will add this, the first time that kid chimed in, it was in regards to the team closing in on both Turner and Jansen. It was followed up soon after by Rosenthal with a "not much going on for Turner", then that night the kid called it a deal. Wasn't until much later the next day that Rosenthal called it in. So who know, maybe Rosenthal's info is a day behind here again as the kid had the teams gaining momentum while Ken has things as stagnant.

On MLB radio early today, before a very interesting Murray Chass interview with Casey Stern(fuck that guy), one of the hosts said he has heard that the Dodgers are kicking the tires to get other teams involved again. Now this is the first time I have heard this at all other than tongue in cheek, but it would make sense. Not sure how they get anyone else involved, unless it's a team that has been kicking around on Kazmir or McCarthy, or one of the many OF'ers. It could also make sense why something didn't happen over the weekend.

 

Not sure you saw this article but you are right on apparently.

http://www.dodgersnation.com/dodger...ned-de-leon-not-worth-hype-gb1293/2017/01/09/

 

I hope the Dodgers can use him and get what they want. But I do think there might be a couple of dudes in the Twins organization that are mucho cuidado and have that old nugget " don't piss on my head and tell me it's raining" rattling around in their heads. The power of the LA PR machine is not exactly a secret.
But at the risk of the ire of whoever, I was never totally sold on JDL either. Sort of like Zack Lee...just never quite got the degree of excitement. There's something there, for sure...but maybe not quite the hype.
I can see why the Twins are trying to squeeze out some more from us, honestly.

 

Here is a post from Dodgers Digest on why Bautista may not be a bad backup plan or even solid addition to a Dozier deal. One thing that I think he is wrong on is how much it will cost to bring in Bautista. There are rumblings out now that he won't even get the 17 Mil he could have gotten for taking the QO. I would prefer that he was brought in, in addition to a 2B like Dozier. That way maybe the team can add a guy like Toles or Thompson to the Dozier deal and potentially get the Twins to eat McCarthy or Kazmir's contract.


http://dodgersdigest.com/2017/01/10/is-jose-bautista-a-better-option-for-dodgers-than-brian-dozier/

 

Yeah, I don't really see Bautista as an alternative to Dozier. They play different positions and the cost to acquire them are different. If anything, like you say, a Bautista signing could help facilitate a trade for Dozier by making extra players expendable. Do you see Bautista's value dropping to the point where he signs a Howie Kendrick type deal? ... a 2 year deal that is higher than the QO in total, but less annually - something that saves face.

 

Article not convincing. And I want to be convinced, I really do.

 

LOL... Neither am I

"Throw in a Toles or a Thompson" to get them to eat Kazmir or McCarthy? The team clearly values prospects and draft picks over all so the suggestion to throw away two guys who have actually shown much promise at the MLB level is a joke. Not only that, if there really is a snag in a Dozier deal over a prospect then why on Earth would the FUCKTARDS just jettison one or two guys who can play when they won't budge on a guy who's still unproven?

 

Then the old question comes back around... When there's a guy just sitting there who can fill a gaping hole and perhaps take us to the next level isn't it WISE to follow the examples of other teams who have actually won WS rings this century and get them, even if it means trading a guy who may or may not be as good as the guy you'd be getting 5 years from now? There comes a time when you have to consider abandoning the "AA def of insanity" methodology and have some balls!!!!!

 

I compared Bautista's situation to Howie's a short while back.
It'd make sense for LAD to step in again..only if he signs a 2yr deal.
Giving up draft compensation for 1yr of Bautista isn't ideal.
And they may not want him for more than 1 year, however, that doesn't mean you don't make the deal.
Again, look at Howie..2yr deal and traded.
The 2nd yr of control offers more opportunities to get value for the player on the trade market and a power bat like Bautista's would probably be highlighted on the market as a bargain if LAD were to put him on the block down the line

 

If Joc takes his game to the next level (I think he will) and Puig can turn it around offensively (probably won't happen), we are such a dangerous team. Hoping one of them can lead off. Adding Dozier for the middle of the lineup would be the perfect addition.

Then we can start talking about Bautista being that "we're all in for 2017" piece that cranks us up to eleven. The only debate would be if he's worth the pick. But he is not an alternative to Dozier.

Puig/Pederson
Seager
Turner
Gonzalez
Dozier
Bautista
Pederson/Puig
Grandal

 

I don't know if he goes 20 mil for two, but like 30 mil for 2? Maybe even a 3rd year TEAM option to take it to 45 with a 2-3 mil buyout? Now that would be something to consider. Especially like I mentioned, if the team threw a little more talent the Twins way to get them to take on say a McCarthy? If I am the Twins I would prefer taking on McCarthy for the reason that his contract is reasonable and if he can be the player he was showing he could be, they could turn around and trade him at this deadline and get a good return for him I am sure. That's the lottery ticket though, he could still be suffering from the yips and be worthless, but at least you got a guy like Toles or Thompson and are eating empty payroll anyway. If you can get that scenario to play out, then the Dodgers are looking at adding 11 mil to the payroll over the next two years for two players that are going to make this offense extremely dangerous.

 

And there it is, impasse in deal.... time to move on.
From Rosenthal...
Sources: #Twins, #Dodgers at impasse on Dozier. No momentum toward deal.
Impasse on Dozier does not preclude future talks, but #Twins had wanted to give Dozier heightened peace of mind on status with club. 2/2

 

And with the way LAD cruises to the post every year, Bautista more than likely would have plenty of big stage opportunities to strengthen his value down the line and bring LAD something in return when Bellinger/Verdugo just can't be held off any longer.
A 3rd year buy out would probably do it.
Twins are silly as hell if they don't want Puig, TBH.
Not that he's a slam dunk, certainly not, but they've been behind in that division for a long time..they need to gamble on a Puig-type even if there's like a 5% chance that he ever produces like he did early on.

 

The headline will read " Twins don't like JDL as much as others ", when maybe LAD really likes Dozier, but isn't head over heels in love w/him either...



http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...umors-hot-stove-dodgers-dbacks-second-baseman
^One of the better pieces written on LAD/MIN/Dozier and what's going on.



Brian Dozier isn't the only great second baseman


Second base, as a position, is possibly the strongest that it’s ever been. That hasn't helped the Twins.
by Austin Yamada Dec 30, 2016, 11:00am EST


It’s funny — isn’t this supposed to be the age of the shortstop? Or the age of the starting pitcher? I feel like I’ve heard both of those terms thrown around quite a bit in the last few years, and not once have I heard about the keystone.

The other funny thing about the concept of second base being such a strong position around the league is that the simple idea of projecting a young player to be a second baseman is, or at least used to be, somewhat of a damnation in and of itself. When talking about prospects, I once heard somewhere that a second base prospect is an oxymoron — prospects are all about tools and upside, but a second base projection is for a player that doesn’t have the range for shortstop or the arm for third base.

Believe it or not, however, second base was arguably the strongest position in the MLB last season. According to FanGraphs, 11 second sackers finished 2016 with at least four wins above replacement.

Can you fathom 11 second basemen? There are only 30 teams in the majors, so that means that over a third of baseball has a well above-average option at second base. And this list doesn’t include any of Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Jose Ramirez, or Anthony Rendon, all of whom posted a 4+ fWAR season in 2016 and have played second base in their career. This list also doesn’t include Neil Walker or Ryan Schimpf, both of whom were on pace to top four wins but fell short due to a lack of games played.

There were only 45 position players that finished with at least 4 fWAR this past season. Among all of the positions, second base led with 11 players of 4+ fWAR. Even if you pooled all of the outfielders into one position, only 10 reached that threshold.

And just in case you think I chose a convenient parameter, we can up the minimum to 5+ WAR — but that just skews the results even more. Among 23 position players that posted five-win seasons in 2016, seven were second basemen. (For reference, exactly one second baseman finished with five wins above replacement in 2015, and that was Jason Kipnis with 5.0 on the dot.)

I was originally just going to write this piece about the strong current state of second base and be done with it, but I realized how relevant this is to the ongoing trade negotiations regarding Brian Dozier.

If you will indulge in my geekiness for a second, let me make a simple analogy to the board game Settlers of Catan. If you’ve ever played before, then you know that there are five resources in the game, and the most valuable resource is — well, whichever is scarcest in that particular game you’re playing. This analogy was the first thing that popped into my head, but it can be applied to settings other than Settlers. Look at the value of baseball cards, or sneakers, or stamps, or whatever else people collect for a hobby. It’s simple economics: Scarcity breeds value.

Now, scarcity isn’t literally what makes Brian Dozier less desirable, because teams only care about baseline production, but it does go hand-in-hand with opportunity cost. Other than arguing the validity of fWAR as a statistic, there isn’t a factual way to say anything other than that Brian Dozier was worth approximately six wins above replacement last season. But if you’re a team that currently has a four-win option at the same position, then Dozier only represents a two-win upgrade for you.

And players aren’t really interchangeable among positions, with the exception of someone like Ben Zobrist. Even if they were more interchangeable, it wouldn’t really matter because second base is relatively high up on the defensive spectrum. For example, if you have a player with a 110 wRC+ who can play a decent second base, and you acquire Brian Dozier to replace him but want him in the lineup somewhere else because he’s such a valuable player, then suddenly that bat doesn’t look so special anymore at first base or in a corner outfield spot, and said player’s value drops immensely.

Now, think about the contending teams, or even possibly contending teams — the Rockies, Cubs, Pirates, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Astros, Rangers, Mariners, Indians, Tigers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles appear to be set at second base. That would leave the Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Angels, and Yankees as potential trade partners with the Twins. Obviously, the Dodgers are the ones that have been heavily negotiating for Dozier, at least if you believe the rumors. If the rumored starting point for the Twins is Jose De Leon and more (which is definitely reasonable), then that already eliminates the Giants and the Angels, who probably don’t have the prospect stock to match. This offseason, the Cardinals have been very vocal that Kolten Wong is their second baseman, so we can probably cross them off the list, especially with reports confirming that they’re not heavily pursuing Dozier. The Yankees could use Dozier, but I doubt that they’d be willing to give up the young assets necessary to acquire him, especially since he only comes with two more years of control, and the Yankees are building for the bigger picture more so than 2017. That pretty much leaves the Diamondbacks, although I haven’t seen a single report linking them to Dozier. Hey, maybe they come out of the woodworks and acquire Dozier without any foresight from the public.

But you can see the larger point here — the reason that the Twins have found the Dodgers to be so stingy in trade talks is because of the concept of leverage. It’s all about supply and demand — even if you include the Diamondbacks as a suitor (which is probably a stretch), then you have at most two teams that are willing and able to provide a suitable package for Dozier. However, Ian Kinsler, Logan Forsythe, Yangervis Solarte, and Jurickson Profar are all varying degrees of available, so the supply outweighs the demand in the current second base trade market. Should a deal fall through between the Dodgers and the Twins, the Twins probably lose more from the talks breakdown.

The Twins are probably frustrated by the Dodgers’ offers, and understandably so. Brian Dozier is an excellent player that still has prime years left and comes under contract for two more seasons at an incredibly reasonable $15 million combined. But the Dodgers are playing this just right — Andrew Friedman probably realizes he’s only bidding against himself. Should the Twins decide to hold onto Dozier until the 2017 trade deadline, more than 25 percent of Dozier’s team control, and therefore value, will have dissipated. The Twins are very unlikely to contend, so that half-season’s worth of MLB value from Dozier doesn’t really mean anything to them, especially when they could’ve converted that into prospect currency this offseason.

Obviously, even with just one buyer, there comes a minimum threshold offer in which it no longer makes sense to move Dozier just for the sake of moving him. If the offer is that poor, then it makes more sense to just hold onto Dozier and hope either the Twins make a surprising playoff run or that one of the contending teams’ starting second basemen get hurt.

But Jose De Leon is quite a fine prospect in his own right, and if the Dodgers are willing to offer a strong secondary piece like Willie Calhoun or Alex Verdugo, then this offer is probably well above that minimum threshold.

This is one of those scenarios in which the Twins trading Brian Dozier to the Dodgers for young controllable assets is the perfect match. But the two sides seem to be at an impasse, and it’s because the fit is too perfect, something that the Dodgers realize all too well.

Earlier this morning, the Twins appeared to set a deadline on the Dozier trade talks, telling suitors to make their final offers as 2016 comes to a close. For now, the Dodgers seem unmoved; if they refuse to budge, it likely won't be because of Dozier himself, or the Twins, but rather because of the plethora of other options available. The current surplus at second base helps everyone, except teams like the Twins, whose only trade asset mans the keystone.

 

If Milwaukee would take on one of Kazmir/Mccarthy and do a straight Puig swap, I'd much prefer Braun to Bautista. Although the commitment is longer and the dollars are more. I don't know how that fits into the luxury tax outlook.

 

Didn't see this post until after I made the post above. I agree on Braun over Bautista if the financials work.

The Villar stuff isn't happening.