He looks like he his going to damn near steal base almost everytime he gets on, the way he is going in ST and towards the end of 2011.
well look at it like this coco crisp had a .314 OBP last year, and still had 49 steals Ichiro .310 OBP and had 40 steals
I'm the guy who was disappointed we didn't trade (package) him for an ace pitcher in 09. I don't think he's going to be a major league hitter nor defender. He's really exciting to watch with the youth and speed, but I just think overall he's not that good.
If he has a .300 OBP over 500 AB's then he will be on base 150 times so I don't think its out of the question for him to have 50+ SB's.
like tb said it all depends how much he gets on base at this point, he's not the most disciplined hitter imo, needs to cut down on his swing he should never hit the ball in the air like willie mays hayes... he should have to do pushups
I look at it like this: Dee plays 150 games Gets 4.5 AB per game, on average His OBP is .325 150 x 4.5 x .325 = 219 times he will reach base 10% of times he will hit for extra bases .9 x 219 = 197 he will be on first base If Dee steals 33% of the time it equals 67 SB If Dee steals 40% of the time it equals 79 SB So my range is 67-79, going with my initial gut number (pre the above calculation) is 72. BTW, this is not a Ruven-style post, it is easier to explain this calculation like this. Speaking of Ruven, where the hell is he?
54 He's going to get on base more than his offensive ability would suggest, guy can beat out routine grounders regularly.
I think he'll get 50ish. But let's do a little math. Some of the numbers change around very slightly since I'm doing some rounding with percentages, but it gives you a general idea: For Dee: 1. Assume 162 game average stats 2. OBP of .325 * 674 PA = gets onto base 219 times 3. 197 hits - 26 2B - 6 3B = 165 1B hits 4. 165/197 = 84% of hits are 1B 5. Draws 20 walks. 20 + 165 / 20 + 197 = 185 / 217. On 1B 85% of the time. 6. 69 SB. 69 / 185 = steals 37.2% of the time. 7. 37.2% + 15% = Dee will be in SP (or scored) 52.2% of the time that he is on base. 8. .522*219 = 114 times he gets into scoring position w/o the help of another batter. Now, let's look at, e.g., Rafael Furcal our previous SS: 1. Assume 162 game average stats 2. OBP of .348 * 728 PA = gets onto base 253 times 3. 184 hits - 32 2B - 7 3B - 12 HR = 133 1B hits 4. 133/184 = 72% of hits are 1B 5. Draws 65 walks. 65 + 133 / 65 + 184 = 198/249. On 1B 79.5% of the time. 6. 33 SB. 33/198 = steals 16.67% of the time 7. 16.67% + 20.5% = Furcal will be in SP (or scored) 37.17% of the time that he is on base. 8. .3717*253 = 94 times he gets into scoring position w/o the help of another batter So, even though the ESPN analysts are bearish on Dee, using 162 game average calculations yields the result that he will actually be in scoring position on his own accord more than Furcal. Yes, this is only one metric. Furcal had more power, for example. But isn't that what we want out of our leadoff hitter? Get into scoring position for Kemp and Ethier to bang them in.
the answer is around 15, all in the first 6 weeks of the season... after that, he'll be shipped back to AAA with a .240 BA and .275 OBP...