Matt Kemp looks to go where no player has gone before

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by irish, Mar 4, 2012.

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  1. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    Dodgers Now
    Steve Dilbeck and The Times' Dodgers reporters
    give you all the news on the boys in blue
    Matt Kemp looks to go where no player has gone before
    By Steve Dilbeck
    March 2, 2012, 10:22 p.m.

    [​IMG]
    Not only is Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp a prodigious hitter, he's a Gold Glove winner as well.

    If you’re going to dream, go big, right? Matt Kemp is dreaming big. Really big. More than that, it turns out, historically big.

    Kemp had one of baseball’s great offensive seasons last year. Now he doesn’t only want to do it again, he wants to improve upon it. And he isn’t talking about 40 homers and 40 steals, but 50-50.

    Should he pull it off, or even come close, he’ll have put together two of the greatest back-to-back seasons in baseball history. And some might argue the greatest ever.

    Last year was a breakout season for Kemp. He fell one home run shy of reaching 40-40. All while leading the National League with 126 runs and batting .324.

    It was a rare season. How rare? Using minimum marks of a .310 batting average, 110 RBI, 30 home runs and 30 steals, it’s only happened nine times in baseball history. And one was by National League MVP Ryan Braun last season.

    [​IMG]

    Trying to repeat that kind of a season, however, has been a losing endeavor. None of the other seven players even came close to duplicating their dramatic overall year. Most had significant falloffs.

    Williams’ batting average went up .025 in his next season, and Aaron’s .009. None of the other seven improved on a single one of the four categories, although Rodriquez equaled his homer-run output). Most didn’t even get in the neighborhood.

    Players who can hit for power and steal bases are rare. Speed on the bases typically wanes before the power. And just remaining healthy for a second consecutive season can prove daunting. Guerrero played almost 50 less games the next year, and Walker, Rodriguez and Burks all played at least 30 less.

    Here’s the difference between their Kemp-like year and the numbers they put up the following season:

    Walker (-26 homers, -67 RBI, -19 stolen bases, -.025 points on his batting average), Aaron (-20 HR, -35 RBI, -9 SB, +.009 BA), Rodriguez (equal HR, -13 RBI, -25 SB, -.025 BA), Burks (-8 HR, -51 RBI, -25 SB, -.054 BA), Guerrero (-14 HR, -32 RBI, -31 SB, -.006 BA), Williams (-16 HR, -64 RBI, -19 SB, +.025 BA) and Bichette (-5 HR, -23 RBI, -25 SB, -.005 BA).

    Kemp is looking at uncharted territory. No one has put back-to-back outstanding seasons that included power and speed like he’s aiming at. A drop off seems almost mandagted. But, hey, if you’re gonna dream …
     
    irish, Mar 4, 2012
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  2. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

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    He's going to regress. I hope not too much though.
     
    VRP, Mar 4, 2012
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  3. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    i would agree
    if not for his work ethic, commitment and dedication
     
    irish, Mar 4, 2012
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  4. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

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    I mean I'm not taking anything away from him, but he had a .380 BABIP last season, that's completely unsustainable. He could hit for more power, but he WILL be on base less, that's almost a lock.
     
    VRP, Mar 4, 2012
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  5. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    you guys and your stats and numbers
    and i mean that as a compliment
    this seems like an interesting stat
    unfortunately i can't quite grasp it
    batting average balls in play, right
    how is it computed that it would be higher than his regular average?
     
    irish, Mar 4, 2012
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  6. THINKBLUE

    THINKBLUE DSP Gigolo

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    Strikeouts probably? idk
     
    THINKBLUE, Mar 4, 2012
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  7. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

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    I'm not sure what you're asking, but an average BABIP is .300, essentially it means that for every 10 balls a guy hits in play 3 are likely to be hits, 7 will be fielded. A guy like Dee Gordon (speed) or Ethier (high line drive percentage) can usually be expected to be above .300, and a guy like Barajas (slow and a fly ball hitter) will be below it. Kemp is quick and hits line drives, so you can probably expect him to be .330-.350 during his prime, but .380 will never happen again, it was an aberration.

    If he wants to have a better season than last year, he'd have to dramatically increase his HR totals or BB rates, to balance out the regression in BA that he'll surely see.
     
    VRP, Mar 4, 2012
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  8. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo Among the Pantheon

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    I hate to say it, but what is truly amazing is that Rodriguez had 21 K's in 1998. Are you fucking kidding? In 686 ABs?
    Man, the 'roids really must work...I guess that's why they take 'em.
    But as he said "he was just a kid and didn't know what was up"...just a kid of 24.
    A mere toddler.
    With an evil "cousin"..but still...21 Ks?
     
    Bluezoo, Mar 4, 2012
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  9. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse 2020 World Champions

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    Seems to me strikeouts will be the key to sustaining his performance. As far as BABIP, he's posted some high BABIP before so it's hard to call it a complete fluke.

    The thing that pops out at me is that if you take Colorado and steroids off the list, you are left with 3 guys. Ken Williams, Hank Aaron, and Matt Kemp. No steroids. No protection from the spawn of Cecil Fielder and Ken Griffey. Pure Kemp.

    Going against the grain here. I predict Matt goes 50-50.
     
    BlueMouse, Mar 4, 2012
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  10. chris

    chris Guest

    while I will agree his BABIP was high, I don't think it'll go down to .330-.350 like VRP said. I'm thinking .365-.370 but he hits more homers
     
    chris, Mar 4, 2012
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  11. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

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    Why do you think that? Not trying to call you out lol, but there's no logic behind that, only homerism haha
     
    VRP, Mar 4, 2012
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  12. chris

    chris Guest

    homerism lol. i just think if any player has the ability to repeat (or at least get close to) a career year like that, it's Matt.
     
    chris, Mar 4, 2012
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  13. TuborgP

    TuborgP DSP Legend

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    Kemp is called the beast and approaches the game in that manner. He just signed a long term deal and is set. He is upped the ante with his workout program and is setting a higher level and standard for himself. Not a lot of athletes do that. There are those who do and they tend to be beast at their postions and sports. We are fortunate we have at least two of them in CK and Kemp. 50/50 or not the Beastie boys are ours and in this year of Dodger turmoil that is a lot.
     
    TuborgP, Mar 4, 2012
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  14. PartyBoy13

    PartyBoy13 Member

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    I agree that roids had a part in his numbers, but steroids don't help you hit or lay off a slider or 98 MPH fastball. I agree with you, 21 Ks with power numbers like that is absolutely absurd.
     
    PartyBoy13, Mar 4, 2012
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  15. Bluezoo

    Bluezoo Among the Pantheon

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    If Matty had a better plate discipline, no ceiling on we he might do in a season...re-write the record books . Absolutely incredible. His po is off the charts...
    "Po' is a new word form I'm making up for "potential"; like "mo" is what is used for 'momentum".
    Not a river in Italy, or a Chinese surname.
     
    Bluezoo, Mar 5, 2012
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  16. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    i like po
    po plays
    like "that dude has mo fo po!"
     
    irish, Mar 5, 2012
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    Bluezoo and BlueMouse like this.
  17. Shaw

    Shaw DSP Legend

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    I'm going to remain optimistic. Yeah, his BABIP was high. Yes, it will probably drop. But that doesn't mean he won't be putting up great numbers. 50/50 is a pipe-dream, but it's great to see all the enthusiasm from Matty. If he has a season close to as good as last year, I'd be very happy.
     
    Shaw, Mar 5, 2012
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  18. blueplatespecial

    blueplatespecial DSP Legend

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    So, I've calculated Matt's PO and came up with 98,763 - though I admit I used both the river in Italy and the Chinese surname in the equation.
     
    blueplatespecial, Mar 5, 2012
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  19. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    but did you factor in the (former-eagle) po james quotient?
     
    irish, Mar 5, 2012
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  20. blueplatespecial

    blueplatespecial DSP Legend

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    Damn, that's going to throw off the PO factor by plus or minus 323. I think I better defer to those more knowledgeable...
     
    blueplatespecial, Mar 5, 2012
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