NEWS/RUMORS Thread

Reality Check Time:

 

The Dodgers‘ hiring of Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi to run the front office is the top transaction of the 2014-15 offseason, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron opines. Three other Dodgers moves appear in Cameron’s list of the winter’s top 10 moves, and he calls them “probably the scariest organization in baseball” now that their financial resources have been augmented by Friedman/Zaidi’s creative maneuvers.

 

I'm not saying he wasn't meant ultimately to be a RF; it would be hard to disagree, given what has happened since, for sure... but, you're saying statistically, he was a minus defender when he won the GG in CF?
Is that possible ?
I guess so, if you're correct.

 

I wonder if we're "scary" enough to win the WS?
I find the SF Giants much scarier....and they've proved it.
There's also a story on the Yahoo home page today (not that Yahoo reeks of solid compelling journalism all the time), that states "greed and arrogance" prevents LAD fans from seeing their team on TV.
That's scary too, IMO.

 

I posted the article in the tv thread. It is from todays Times. This is one of the more relevant to this thread highlights:


The merger between Comcast and Time Warner Cable has been stalled by regulatory hurdles and may never even happen. The merger between AT&T and DirecTV is still likely, but it might not happen until after the start of the season.
Executives with both groups want you to believe their hands are tied until the paperwork is completed. But industry consultants say there are still ways to put the Dodgers on television.Money could solve everything. But the Dodgers don't want to give it back, Time Warner Cable doesn't want to lose it, and DirecTV won't pay it.

 

Question to ponder moving forward just how deep are the pockets of the owners going to be if they have to renegotiate the the contract? August 1, or there abouts becomes a fairly key time point as TW will have to post 2nd quarter earnings. Last year those earnings took a hit because of the contract and their was blow back. For those of you who are investors you know who really owns TW and shareholder value issues can be a bitch and bring management down. Hmmm activist investor who is a fan or perhaps part owner of another team who is pissed he is subsidizing Dodger spending.
Time will tell but the signing or non signing of Moncado could be the beginning of reality check time along with the start of the season shortly there after.
Who the Hell at Time Warner negotiated and signed this contract?

Now back to Fan Graph discussion and the latest WAR data about how awesome our franchise is.

 

Good info,Tubo... always there with the financial lowdown.
The fans, whatever the multifaceted chess game moves these "players" make/don't make, wind up being screwed. That's just sad and an abomination on the state of things. Really sad.

 

Dee Gordon..another minus defender.

 

A few of us have been trying to warn but folks often read what they are most interested in and that doesn't include financial resources or even watch them. Being retired I spend a lot of my personal entertainment time with CNBC and reading related publications. You will appreciate this and ponder the question. How much financial payroll commitment has Friedman made post the 2015 season? The pitcher from NY is about it and all of the other new additions are either minor league on come off the books in 2016. Dee is gone as is Kemp. Much of the rumbling about Kemp has distracted from what is a curious payroll move. Most of the money going to San Diego is front loaded in 2015. The team seems to be openly pushing Grienke and his contract out of the door. War and all of that aside Dee being traded and Kendricks being signed frees up 2016 money. The payment from TW is safe for this year but the words renegotiate are being missed by many Dodger fans and the writers are lurking over head like vultures. Especially pushing the Cuban players and whetting the appetite of Dodger fans for their deep pocket owners to sign them. People seem oblivious to how the Dodgers were purchased and payed for. Talk about leverage. Mark Walters only put up 100 million of his own money and none of the owners put up more than that. He leveraged 1.2 billion of Guggenheim investment money along with a 500 million loan. The terms of which are not in the public domain. The NY Times when it was all transacted raised ethical issues about the Guggenheim money and the Indiana Insurance Commissioner gave Walters a pass based on his previous ethical dealings with the office. With Guggenheim operating in just about all of the states it only takes one Attorney General to raise issues and investigate. Getting the tv contract fixed is about more than just fans seeing games. Imagine the activist investor of TW who is a fan or part owner of another team. Imagine if the management at TW needs to CYA in August how this could turn really nasty. Others I am sure will blow this off and really as we are all told all you need to know is WAR and life is good.

 

Blue Zoo, Told ya! Irony is I was typing as this was posted. Yep a minus defender who doesn't need to be paid in 2016.

 

The Best Transactions of the 2015 Off-Season
by Dave Cameron - February 12, 2015

With the James Shields signing bringing the off-season to something of a close, it’s time to look back at some of my favorite moves of the winter. A year ago, I was quite high on moves like the Doug Fister acquisition and the Jose Abreu signing, but also the Yankees landing Brian McCann and the Cardinals picking up Peter Bourjos, so you know, grains of salt and all that. Still, I do think there are some moves that appear to be demonstrably better than others, and look likely to push their organizations forward into the future. Below, you’ll find my top 10, plus a handful of other small moves that I liked.


Honorable Mentions

These deals aren’t quite significant enough to really move the needle, but they’re solid moves that I think will help their teams overall.

Blue Jays acquire Devon Travis
Blue Jays acquire Michael Saunders
Astros sign Jed Lowrie (3/$23M)
Rays sign Asdrubal Cabrera (1/$8M)
Pirates sign Jung-Ho Kang (4/$16M, including posting fee)
Indians acquire Brandon Moss
Nationals acquire Trea Turner and Joe Ross
Astros acquire Luis Valbuena
Red Sox sign Justin Masterson (1/$9M)
Dodgers acquire Jimmy Rollins

The Top 10

10. Dodgers Sign Brandon McCarthy
Cost: Four years, $48 million

I have a long history of preferring higher risk pitchers at lower prices over paying for proven durability, and McCarthy is probably my favorite example of spending moderate money on an arm with real upside. There was a lot of focus on the four year guarantee for a guy who just cracked 200 innings for the first time in his career, but the AAV of the deal is low enough that the four year term isn’t a big deal. McCarthy signed for the kind of total commitment that good relievers and mediocre outfielders were getting, but if he can put together even a couple of fully healthy years in out of the next four, the Dodgers should come out ahead here. At this price, they don’t need 200 innings per year from him to justify the contract.

9. Reds Acquire Eugenio Suarez
Cost: Alfredo Simon

My favorite of all the small moves this winter, the Reds somehow turned one year of a below average #5 starter into a fairly interesting young middle infielder. Suarez might top out as nothing more than a utility guy, but even as a part-time shortstop who won’t embarrass himself offensively, he’ll have real value while making the league minimum. And if he’s anywhere near as good as the statistical projections think he might be, then the Reds stole six years of a potentially league average player for an eminently replaceable back-end starter. There might not be the kind of upside in acquiring Suarez that there is in flashier moves, but this is exactly the kind of move the Reds needed to make this winter.

8. Padres Acquire Justin Upton and Aaron Northcraft
Cost: Max Fried, Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith, and Dustin Peterson

The Padres did a lot of things this winter, but this was my favorite A.J. Preller move. Upton isn’t the superstar he was projected to be as a prospect, but he’s a solid above average player and a borderline star when he plays acceptable defense. Acquiring one year of a good-not-great player isn’t the home run that it will be made out to be, but landing Upton for a broken pitcher and some spare parts is a pretty solid move. Perhaps Carson’s affection for Jace Peterson will eventually be proven correct, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if the draft pick the Padres got for losing Upton proved to be as valuable as any of the four players they gave up to get him in the first place.

7. Blue Jays sign Russell Martin
Cost: Five years, $82 million

Like with McCarthy, it’s best to not focus on what this deal might look like when it ends, as five years for an aging catcher likely means there’s some albatross years coming. In the first few years, though, this should be a big win for the Blue Jays, as Martin’s impact on both sides of the ball could make him the most important player to change teams this winter. At the least, he should be one of the game’s best catchers for the next couple of years, and with the Blue Jays pushing in on 2015 before Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion hit free agency, this was the best signing Toronto could have made to try and make a run at the division. $82 million isn’t particularly cheap, but given the size of the contracts handed out to similarly valuable free agents, it’s still a bargain.

6. Blue Jays Acquire Josh Donaldson
Cost: Brett Lawrie, Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, and Sean Nolin

I don’t see this as the total heist that many others do, as Graveman and Nolin are exactly the kinds of pitchers that I value higher than many, and I’m not giving up on Brett Lawrie just yet. Toss in Barreto’s upside, and the Blue Jays gave up plenty of value, but they also are getting one extremely good chip in return. Even as a Super Two, Donaldson provides four years of team control at discounted prices, and has legitimately developed into one of the best third baseman in baseball. The upgrade over Lawrie didn’t come for free, but these are important wins for Toronto, and there is some benefit to consolidating value within one position. I am fine with this trade from the A’s perspective, but given Toronto’s situation, taking the risk to land Donaldson should prove worthwhile.

5. Red Sox Acquire Wade Miley
Cost: Rubby de la Rosa and Allen Webster

Miley isn’t sexy, and probably never turns into more than a solid mid-rotation innings eater. That said, that profile currently commands $15 to $20 million a year on the free agent market, and the Red Sox were able to snag three years of team control — then turn it into four years with a nifty new contract — in exchange for two guys who probably profile as relievers. Maybe either de la Rosa or Webster will eventually get their results to match up with the raw stuff, but I’d rather bet on a guy who has shown he can give you 200 perfectly acceptable innings on a regular basis. This move might have lowered the Red Sox ceiling, but it significantly raised their floor, and used up only a tiny fraction of their payroll. Miley won’t get much of the credit for a Red Sox team that should be much better in 2015, but acquisitions like this one are why they project for a big turnaround.

4. Yankees sign Chase Headley
Cost: 4 years, $52 million

Yeah, there are legitimate reasons to think that Chase Headley is not likely to be a +4 WAR player going forward. Defense doesn’t always age gracefully, and Headley’s second half surge might have been mostly about taking advantage of Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field. But that’s still going to be his home park, and even with the drop in power, Headley’s still been an above average hitter with real defensive value. Given any sort of bounce-back at the plate, he’s a very nice contributor, and if the defensive value sticks around for a little while, as good as players signing for two or three times what he cost. It’s another high floor/moderate upside acquisition that isn’t always in favor, but it’s hard to figure out another way $50 million could have been better spent in free agency this winter.

3. Dodgers Acquire Yasmani Grandal and Joe Wieland
Cost: Matt Kemp and Tim Federowicz

I didn’t really hold back when this trade was announced, comparing the trade to the Blue Jays dumping Vernon Wells on the Angels prior to the 2011 season. That was a bit of an extreme example — Wells complete collapse should not be the expectation for Kemp in San Diego — but there are a lot of similarities here, perhaps especially when looking at the catchers that went to the team dumping the salary. Like Mike Napoli‘s inclusion in the Wells trade, Grandal is an under-appreciated piece of this deal, and could prove to be more valuable going forward than Kemp himself. Catchers who can hit reasonably well don’t have to be defensive aces to be worth playing, and Grandal’s framing numbers suggest he isn’tRyan Doumit behind the plate either. To dump $75 million in future salary and pick up an interesting pitching prospect for the right to exchange a defensively challenged player they didn’t need for one that filled a clear hole makes this a big win for Los Angeles.

2. Dodgers acquire Howie Kendrick, Enrique Hernandez, Austin Barnes, andChris Hatcher
Cost: Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, Miguel Rojas, cash

While it wasn’t technically a three way trade, the two Andrew Heaney deals are best viewed as one larger transaction, with the Dodgers using Gordon and Haren to land a significant second base upgrade and a pair of prospects who both might be better than Gordon long-term. To this day, I still can’t entirely figure out how the Dodgers managed to turn Gordon into Kendrick — probably a +2 or +3 WAR upgrade in short-term value — and receive a couple of prospects for the right to make that swap. Yes, they gave up some team control, but Gordon is exactly the kind of player that you don’t want to be giving arbitration raises to, and Hernandez can probably replace most of the value lost by not having Gordon on the roster going forward. Toss in Barnes, who is an odd but potentially very useful role player, and I expect the Dodgers to get more future value from the players they acquired than the one they gave up. Toss in the big short-term improvement, and this deal was a total home run for LA.

1. Dodgers Acquire Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi
Cost: Cash

The last two moves only exist because of this one, and so while I hesitate to put a front office hire ahead of every player transaction, it’s impossible to ignore that this move was directly responsible for all the other good moves that came afterwards. A year ago, the Dodgers were a a financial behemoth that was wasting its resource advantage on lousy relievers and overrated outfielders; now they’re maybe the best team in baseball while simultaneously getting younger and improving their farm system. That’s no small accomplishment, and the dramatic turnaround began when the team decided to use their capital to overhaul their front office instead of buying more broken closers. It was the best decision they could have made, and now the Dodgers are probably the scariest organization in baseball. That isn’t solely because of their two new hires, but no team changed course more dramatically than the Dodgers this winter, and it began with the hiring of Andrew Friedman

 

Dee to Miami..arguably the best off-season transaction, trade or signing.


Let's add the Cuban surplus to this list, nerds

 

Doesn't signing the Cubans require money that management has yet to RECENTLY overwhelm us with? I agree with you that signing a bunch of them would alleviate some of the concerns about how the TV contract fiasco might impact us. The sports writers are making their case to push us to expect management to do something. So I suspect many like you are certain they will go into their deep pockets and do it. On the other hand Friedman is a master at managing a lowr payroll operation and he along with the high number of former GM's on staff will be more than able to effectively manage a reduction in payroll and operation expenses. Hey just get CC and DRE off the books for 2016 and our payroll will be down to?

 

It's good we have someone like yourself to post things like this, and makes the unaware...uh..aware. Like me. I'm not a WAR guy and all that, but more of a what I see on the field type as overall importance to my limited observations...I guess a dinosaur. But there is so-o-o much more going on, some of which is a bit on the curiouser and curiouser side, if you get what I mean.
It really does give a fan like me (and many others , I suspect) a whole other aspect or ten of 'em, to the change and what's gone down since.
If they are thieves in their hearts, or villians in their inclinations , I don't care - if we win...as a pessimist fan of this drought stricken team, I have doubts. Not a great bouyant confidence level, borne of recent post season results to hang one's hat on...
But the local fans not being able to watch, with how they have supported this team for years and years, thick and thin, is an abomination. The brutality and level of that greed is "new business" at it's nauseating worst.
It goes way beyond disagreements about favorite players being moved by one method or another for other players to replace them, is appears.
Apparently, the product on the field (I used to say "the team"), is only a small part of it all.

 

I didn't say anything regarding alleviating concerns about the " TV contract fiasco ", so how are you in agreement?

Smh @ trying to drag me into your daily panic themed series.

 

Shields Can Opt Out Of Padres Contract After 2016 Season
By Steve Adams [February 13, 2015 at 8:59am CST]
James Shields‘ four-year, $75MM contract with the Padres allows him to opt out of the deal after the 2016 season, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).


Lost the 13th overall draft pick.

 

BZ, thanks for the kind words. Let me clarify I was and am still a big fan of the current Dodger owners and consider them good people with our interest in mind. However there are financial realities and the LA Times? Yahoo article does a good job highlighting them. Much of what many of us thought would play out has not and what I thought was a brilliant plan by Walters etc when they purchased the team has suffered from well intended miscalculations. That being said there are now serious financial consequences and someone has to take the hit until resolved. For now it is TW losing money on the deal and that can't happen for 18 years. We both know the world of finances and legalities challenged. It is surprising how so many have forgotten the lessons learned in the McCourt bankruptcy. One of the biggest culprits in changing the calculus of all of this resides at 1600 Pennsylvania avenue. His unwarranted intrusion in the FCC process on net neutrality has added another layer clouding all of this. The forces his opinion and those supporting FCC Wheelers plans are aligned and part of the anti TW/Comcast merger. The Dodger contract has been discussed at the FCC and in congress. If the House decides to investigate the possibility of the executive branch influencing the operations of the independent FCC who knows what will happen. Prudence is justified if the Dodgers limit expenses until their is a resolution. Had TW been able to successfully sell the rights to other companies we would not be having this discussion and the Dodgers deep pockets would be evident.


Food for thought. Since the TW effort to bring the other companies on board about a year ago how much 2016 salary commitment have the Dodgers made. Even at the trade deadline with our known playoff weaknesses how much did we spend at the deadline to improve the team? Was it really sending Joc for Hamels that was the deal breaker or was it paying Hamels in the out years? Interesting how the new management team shifted the blame for losing in the playoffs from a failure to bolster the bull pen and the signing of low cost rentals of Correa and Hernandez as being a problem to the locker room dynamics of a team that won 94 games and had that big bad apple Kemp to blame it on. Problem solved he was shipped off to the lowly Padres to in the weakest lineup in baseball and prove management right that his 2014 second half was a fluke.

 

Joc Pederson needs to succeed and succeed big and will be given every opportunity. It was Joc who potentially could have landed us Hamels at the trade deadline but we didn't pull the trigger or Amaro wanted to much more. Who knows! We can only imagine how the playoff would have played out with games 1-3 being Kershaw, Greinke and Hamels with Ryu as game 4. Wow and imagine if we had forked out the money to take on the contract of a reliever or two. Might history be different? For all of you history buffs's to ponder. If you like revisionist history how might the second half of last season in review be written. And now for the really important stuff:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-worst-transactions-of-the-2015-off-season/
1. Padres acquire Matt Kemp and Tim Federowicz
Cost: Yasmani Grandal, Joe Wieland, Matt Kemp’s contract

Buy-one-get-one sales are great, so long as you actually want two of the thing you’re buying. An example of a thing you shouldn’t be excited to get two of: arthritic hips. Especially when you’re paying $75 million for the right to hope that the guy your division rival is getting rid of isn’t about to have a total physical breakdown in his 30s. Kemp’s athleticism is essentially gone at this point, leaving him as a bat-only player with an inconsistent offensive track record. In many ways, he’s not that different from Nelson Cruz, only the Padres took on an even larger salary commitment and surrendered real talent for the right to do so. Even if you don’t love Grandal as a catcher, it still cost San Diego an interesting arm in Jesse Hahn in order to fill the hole that trading him opened up. Even if Kemp can sustain his career average offensive performances, he’s still not good enough to justify the cost, both in salary and in talent, and the physical problems make it unlikely that he’ll age well. In this move, the Padres spent a lot of money to not get any better, making this my least favorite move of the off-season.

Foolish and naive Padres with their eyes shut and dancing with joy. Little do they know. All they have to do is come to this thread and read Fan Graph and they will get a dose of true reality.

Does Fan Graph have a dating site? If they did I wonder how widely used it would be. Dating chicks sight unseen based on their data.

 

Royals picked up Blanton lol