I love this deal. Especially the years. I hope he continues to be CK but that is going to be a lot of mileage on a arm at age 30. Hoping this guy can be more like Nolan Ryan and less like Sandy Koufax.
well he is a big Texan like Ryan. let's hope he has a bit of both in him. because if he's half Koufax and half Ryan, he's the best of all time.
Kershaw baseball's first $30 million man By David Schoenfield | ESPN.com The Dodgers didn't have to sign Clayton Kershaw to a long-term contract before the drop-dead date on Masahiro Tanaka hits Jan. 24, but it made sense to do so. The decision on whether to pursue Tanaka with all checkbooks blazing is now an easier one to make with the front office knowing the Dodgers will have $215 million committed to Kershaw to go with the $128 million committed to Zack Greinke. Reports indicate Tanaka may get $120 million, so if the Dodgers win the bidding sweepstakes, you'll be talking about $463 million for just three pitchers. Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale pitched in the wrong era. But here's the thing: $215 million for seven years actually sounds ... clear the throat ... reasonable. Even if it does make Kershaw the first player who will average $30 million per year over the life of his contract. Let's examine some numbers. Here are the largest total value contracts for pitchers: Clayton Kershaw: $215 million, 2014-2020 Justin Verlander: $180 million, 2013-2019 Felix Hernandez: $175 million, 2013-2019 CC Sabathia: $161 million, 2009-2015 Zack Greinke: $147 million, 2013-2018 Cole Hamels: $144 million, 2013-2018 Johan Santana: $137.5 million, 2008-2013 Matt Cain: $127.5 million, 2012-2017 The top four guys all got seven years, the next four got six years. (Sabathia had an out clause and later negotiated a five-year, $122 million deal that went from 2012 to 2016.) Like Hamels and Cain, Kershaw signed his deal in his final season before reaching free agency. Why did he get so much more? It's pretty simple: He's better. Here are all eight pitchers with their totals in the two seasons before the first year of the contract: Kershaw: 2.17 ERA, 463.2 IP, 169 ERA+, 14.0 WAR Verlander: 2.52 ERA, 489.1 IP, 166 ERA+, 16.2 WAR Hernandez: 3.27 ERA, 465.2 IP, 116 ERA+, 8.4 WAR Sabathia: 2.95 ERA, 494 IP, 148 ERA+, 13.1 WAR Greinke: 3.63 ERA, 384 IP, 109 ERA+, 5.1 WAR Hamels: 2.92 ERA, 431.1 IP, 135 ERA+, 11.2 WAR Santana: 3.04 ERA, 452.2 IP, 144 ERA+, 12.5 WAR Cain: 3.01 ERA, 445 IP, 123 ERA+, 8.2 WAR Adjusted ERA and WAR figures from Baseball-Reference.com. Only Verlander can match up statistically with Kershaw, but the advantage Kershaw had over the Tigers' ace is he'll play the first year of his deal at 26 while Verlander played his at 30. That age difference is a huge factor in projecting future value. In fact, earlier today, ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski broke down why Kershaw could be worth more than $300 million: ZiPS views Kershaw to be worth 50.9 WAR over the next 10 seasons, taking Kershaw even past the career mark estimated for future Hall of Famers. At $5.45 million per WAR (ZiPS has revised this figure upward based on this winter's contracts) and 5 percent inflation, that comes out to a whopping $338 million valuation. Even knocking off $15 million to $20 million to account for the fact that the contract is likely to buy out one arbitration year, meaning Kershaw would not get full price, there's clearly an argument for him surpassing that $300 million line. That 50 wins above replacement is a projection over 10 seasons, not seven, but you get the idea. If he stays healthy, Kershaw should join the pantheon of greatest-ever pitchers. How realistic is 50 WAR? Or even 40 WAR over seven seasons (5.7 per year)? Over the past 25 years, only three pitchers have achieved 40 WAR during their age-26 to age-32 seasons: Greg Maddux: 54.7 Pedro Martinez: 53.7 Roger Clemens: 43.5 The only others above 35 are Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina, David Cone and Sabathia. Of course, some pitchers -- such as Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling -- end up peaking in their 30s. That's an unlikely scenario for Kershaw, considering he's pretty much at his peak right now (the dude had a 1.83 ERA in 2013) and reached the majors at such a young age. The Dodgers handled him carefully early in his career, and while all pitchers are health risks -- see Santana -- Kershaw has made 33 starts each of the past three seasons and 30-plus all five full years in the majors. Yes, you can point to Cain's bad season or Verlander's subpar (for him) 2013. But Cain just isn't in Kershaw's class and it's early to say Verlander won't go back to his 2011-12 level. Kershaw is durable, he's dominant and now he's a Dodger for a long time. Enjoy him, L.A. __
Oh yeah I agree the years are perfect, especially the opt out after 5. It's an expensive deal but he's worth it and the length is spot on.
I'd take a different approach. I'd offer him the 10/300 with the understanding that the last 3-4 years, depending on his effectiveness would be in a capacity other than a player. Give him the opportunity to finish as a Dodger plus get a start in his after baseball life, give him a job as Director of Charitable Affairs or something. Groom him for a management position. Or a coaching job if he shows the knack for it.
Winners and losers of Kershaw deal Clayton Kershaw will earn about 75 cents to 80 cents per heartbeat over the next seven years, given the seven-year, $215 million contract agreement that was reported by ESPNLosAngeles.com's Ramona Shelburne. So he is the most obvious winner in all of this. Kershaw will earn the most significant yearly salary in U.S. sports history, $30.7 million -- and will still have the opportunity to opt out of his deal at the age of 30, if the landscape changes. He works hard, he is accountable, he is ridiculously competitive, and as I explained here the other day, he's pretty grounded. So if the Dodgers are going to invest record-setting dollars in any player, Kershaw -- with success and competitive integrity -- is a good guy to bet on. There are other winners, and losers, as the dominoes from this deal fall. Winner: Masahiro Tanaka The right-hander from Japan was going to make a lot of money anyway, with some general managers estimating that he'll get more than $100 million in his deal because he's a 25-year-old, front-of-the-rotation, free-agent starter, and those don't come along very often. But Kershaw's deal allows Tanaka to draft in his wake and provides a softer context for the Tanaka bidding; this makes it easier for teams to offer whopper contracts, so if the Yankees or the Dodgers dangle $125 million or more, it won't seem quite so crazy. Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner said Tanaka will do great things. Bobby Valentine says Tanaka will be worth the price paid. Winner: Casey Close, Jim Murray and the other agents at Excel Sports Management They get this record deal for Kershaw, and guess what? They also represent Tanaka. Loser: The Dodgers' NL West rivals The ownership that bought the Dodgers for $2 billion-plus made no secret of the fact that they intended to collect the talent necessary to win championships. But now that this aggressiveness is playing out, the Dodgers' spending must be incredibly daunting for the other businesses in their division. The Rockies' payroll was about $76 million last season, and the Dodgers will dole out more than three times that amount in salary. The Padres' most significant investment in recent seasons was their $27 million, three-year deal with Carlos Quentin -- and the Dodgers just gave out a contract worth eight times that. The Diamondbacks could probably replace their pool about 400 times with the money the Dodgers are spending on Kershaw. The Giants are one of baseball's richest teams, with a tremendous home ballpark, a rabid fan base, a great star in Buster Posey -- and their primary payroll this year is going to be about half of what the Dodgers' payroll will be. Baseball generally has a lot more parity than it gets credit for, with small-market teams like Oakland, Cleveland and Tampa Bay making the postseason. But the fact is that for the last two decades, the division rivals of the Yankees have been elbowed out of the postseason partly because of New York's spending. For example: The Blue Jays haven't made the playoffs in two decades, and the Orioles have made it once in the past 16 years. And this is what the existence of the Padres, Rockies and Diamondbacks promises to be, in light of the Dodgers' massive payroll advantage. Winners: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, David Price and Jordan Zimmermann Scherzer and Lester will be eligible for free agency after the 2014 season, and Price and Zimmerman are set to hit the market after 2015. Their price tags just climbed upward. Scherzer's arbitration case will be intriguing, writes Tom Gage. Winners: The Dodgers The fact is they have money to spend and they're going all out to win, and Kershaw is a great talent to bet on. Steve Dilbeck was among those who asked the most-asked question in baseball circles Wednesday: Can the Dodgers sign Kershaw and Tanaka? From his piece: Compared to other owners, right now the Dodgers bathe in cream, own chateaus with more rooms than the Vatican, drive to the ballpark in one of six Bugattis and walk to their offices over fresh rose petals. And they can't sign Tanaka? Using Kershaw's new average salary, the Dodgers' current projected rotation of Kershaw, Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dan Haren and Josh Beckett will cost the Dodgers $87.5 million next season. That's more than 13 team's total 2013 payrolls. Sometimes the rich just get richer. The Dodgers try to avoid talking about Tanaka, but Wednesday team President Stan Kasten suggested to The Times signing Kershaw to a mega-deal would not mean they could not go after the Japanese right-hander. “I don't think any one contract impacts any other,” Kasten said. Or apparently any number of contracts. Fat cats becoming more corpulent. Tanaka would not cost them a draft pick, would not cost them players nor prospects in exchange and he is 25 years old. He seems right down their gold-plated alley.Winner: Matt Garza After Tanaka comes off the board, Garza will be the best free agent not attached to draft-pick compensation, with the Angels and perhaps the Diamondbacks lined up to make a deal. Garza may not necessarily get more money because of the Kershaw contract, but at least Garza will soon have some resolution. Losers: The 2015 (and beyond) Rays With Kershaw signing a long-term deal, the Dodgers might be less motivated to pursue David Price and therefore less likely to give the Rays a package of young players to land the left-hander. Winners: The 2014 Rays As written here last week, there is growing sentiment among rival executives that Price will open the upcoming season with Tampa Bay -- as part of what could be the best Rays' team in recent years, with a rotation that also includes Matt Moore, Alex Cobb and Chris Archer. The Rays appear to be an early favorite to make the postseason. Loser: Labor peace The Kershaw deal is the latest sign that the financial disparity between big-market and small-market teams is growing, and as salaries climb, the more likely it is that a small-market team holding an elite talent must consider trading the player in his first couple of years of service time. For example: Addison Russell of the Athletics is regarded as one of the top prospects in baseball. If Russell becomes a major star right away, he'll be earning $15 million in his fourth year in the big leagues, much more in subsequent years; Oakland may not be able to afford him if he's really good, just as Price will eventually have to be moved. With can't-miss prospects, you could make a case that it's better to trade a talent like Russell even before he reaches the big leagues. The evolution of this dynamic into a reality is not a good thing. All of this is leading to growing unrest among small-market teams, and the uneasy peace between those clubs and big-market teams could be in jeopardy if the small-market clubs demand greater concessions leading up to the next collective bargaining agreement. Kershaw: By the numbers • Kershaw is actually more than worth this price, writes Dan Szymborski. • A great note from Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Information. Among pitchers who have thrown 1,000 innings through their age-25 season, no one in history has a better ERA+ than Kershaw. (ERA+ adjusts for park and level of scoring, and 100 is average.) Clayton Kershaw: 146 Tom Seaver: 141 Roger Clemens: 141 Hal Newhouser: 141 Bob Feller: 136
There are many athletes spanning different sports who should get out a pen and paper, listen to this, and take notes on how to do it right.
No he won't. Kersh isn't about the money. He's not your typical greedy selfish athlete. He and his wife are talking about how they can help people with all that money. Not about beach houses and pools and shit like that. When the time comes, Clayton will not be seeking something stupid. He will have the end of his career in sight. He epitomizes class, humility and generosity. He'll always be a Dodger.
If he continues at the level of the last 3 years, I could see him opting out in 5 years but just looking to get the highest AAV again. Which could be as much as $35M by then with Trout either being locked up before 26 or an FA just after turning 26.
O, bullshit. How can he help more Africans, with more money. Kerhsaw, like 99.9999999999999999999% of all athletes is all about how much money they can get. Honestly, the only top of the game athletes I can recall signing for clearly less than they could have gotten are Tom Brady and LeBron James.
